new jeanne forecast... 115KT at landfall

[Derek Ortt]

and a possible GOM threat now

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl112004forecast.html

graphics will be available very soon

[Scorpion]

No!!!

[tronbunny]

Thank you Derek.
I have a short list of preparations to make.
I'm staying on-line tonight, as long as I can.
I'll be busy, away from the computer between now this afternoon.
I am taking this very seriously.
(unlike many neighbors )

[Derek Ortt]

graphics are now available at http://www.nwhhc.com/atl112004graphics.html

[StrongWind]

So you're still not buying into the NHC's north of PBC scenario?

Ft. Lauderdale is doomed. It's not a direct ht on it but close enough to get ugly. So many people have been in denial about this storm - expecting it to go so far north we get nothing more than a stiff breeze.

[Kiern]

That's RIGHT over my house at 132mph. Eep hahah.

[Aquawind]

Wow..Mean track and a Major Cane..

[Juno Beach]

Ouch! That would put me in the NE Quadrant. My house is as prepared as it could possibly be. Now I'm wondering if I should maybe bug out.

[otowntiger]

That track looks a whole lot better than the NHC track as far as Orlando and points north are concerned. With it so far to our south, it would appear according to your track that we may only get t.s. or only gale force winds, right? The Tampa area would not be as lucky.

[Brent]

Geez...

Please keep it out of the Gulf.

[chris_fit]

I think that's a little to far south. IMO

[jpigott]

good lord, i don't even want to ask, but what is 115KTs and given your track, Derek, what does that mean for me here in northern palm beach county

[Guest]

Hey Derek...Do you still think CAT 1 conditions for north Miami-Dade if track verifies?

[Derek Ortt]

probably TS conditions for dade, with cane gusts if it continues due west

[Greg]

Let me see, the NHC has it going 14 MPH, reaching land in 24 hours, so if you say it's going to hit in 12 hours, is it going 28 MPH? If so, then wouldn't the intensity remain higher across the state?

[caneman]

Yeah people here in Tampa are only thinking TS strength winds and I keep telling them it could be as much as 75 to 85 if it takes the track I think it will. Everyone is so stressed from storms that they've become complacent. Nobody has stocked up like they did for Frances and this could be a little wrose due to faster movement. I do have one problem with NHC and that is that they hug the GFS models till just about the very end. I see no problem shifting trends as much as necessary and think it would be far better to go with the models with the most recent successes.

[Derek Ortt]

its 180 miles from the coast. at 15 m.p.h., its inland in 12 hours.

also, hurricanes usually weaken three full categories while crossing florida

[Sanibel]

Nobody is ready here either. Looks like we have to get the porch cleared again. We are getting off easy compared to Vero.

Caneman: You're in it now buddy, expect reports from you until blackout.


115 knots is very reasonable. I'm hanging for mild lift prior to landfall. Straight west gives us hurricane winds all the way over here!


Looks like High has punched all the way through to the Gulf and even put a curve into the bottom of the weak trough. First outflow band over us now with small pre-hurricane cotton ball clouds showing up like they always do before a cyclone. First north breezes starting...

Noticeable humidity in coolish air...

[caneman]

its 180 miles from the coast. at 15 m.p.h., its inland in 12 hours.

also, hurricanes usually weaken three full categories while crossing florida

If it comes in at 130 mph and came over Tampa based on my Charley experience, I'll prepare for 80 - 90mph depending on speed of motion .

[Janie34]

This is exactly what I was afraid of.