Land interaction or Pesky ridge???

#1 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 8:32 am

Either way, Jeanne has made a significant jog to the WSW or SW in the last few frames. We are getting to within 12 hours of landfall, and this is very important for the exact location. Regardless, anyone in the warning should be prepared for a major hurricane.

This IR loop should show the south jog - http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... e&itype=ir

miamijaaz · #2 Postby **miamijaaz** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 8:43 am

I noticed that too. If it's the ridge, why would it push it slightly SW now and not before? I though the ridge was weaker on its weastern side.

chris_fit · #3 Postby **chris_fit** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 8:45 am

It's just a wobble. I dont think the ridge has any play in that as earlier this morning it made a wobble to the NW. I just cant see the wobble on radar though?!?!?

#4 Postby **Canelaw99** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 8:45 am

Miami - I think that the ridge was supposed to be weakening on that side, that's what was going to turn Jeanne...HOWEVER, I don't think it has weakened, and it's therefore just as strong on that pesky western edge.... :roll:

BonesXL · #5 Postby **BonesXL** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 8:46 am

I think there a small pocket of a high located in the GOM that continues to strengthen the high currently above jeanne...any comments.

CourierPR · #6 Postby **CourierPR** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 8:46 am

Purdue, that looks like a significant wobble to my untrained eyes. I live in NE Broward Co. and this is getting hairy.

Wnghs2007 · #7 Postby **Wnghs2007** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 8:47 am

miamijaaz wrote:I noticed that too. If it's the ridge, why would it push it slightly SW now and not before? I though the ridge was weaker on its weastern side.

It could be a buldge in the ridge sticking out to push it further to the South. The ridge will be weaker towards Western FL. Who knows this thing might make it into the GULF and I dont think there will be that very sharp turn to 100Degrees at so and so speed. 35 Degrees would be the most Im willing to go. you know the sharp as get out turn.

#8 Postby **dhweather** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 8:47 am

The next few frames will be critical - that is a significant move SW!

#9 Postby **loon** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 8:48 am

chris_fit wrote:It's just a wobble. I dont think the ridge has any play in that as earlier this morning it made a wobble to the NW. I just cant see the wobble on radar though?!?!?

The reason you can't see the wobble on radar is because radar is usually 5 minute or less updates, while the WV/IR loops are 30 minute intervals. A small step WSW every 5 minutes would be hardly tradeable, however take a snapshot ever 30 minutes it becomes much more noticable.

cheers,
the loon

chris_fit · #10 Postby **chris_fit** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 8:50 am

IF you look at the radar
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/RAD_ ... mauto.html
and
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/latest/DS ... kmlb.shtml

I see NO SOUTH movement at all.... as a matter of fact a SLIGHT northward component last 2 frames on both radars. The satelites tell a different story, a SOUTH WEST component... what is going on?

Wnghs2007 · #11 Postby **Wnghs2007** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 8:53 am

chris_fit wrote:IF you look at the radar
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/RAD_ ... mauto.html
and
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/latest/DS ... kmlb.shtml

I see NO SOUTH movement at all.... as a matter of fact a SLIGHT northward component last 2 frames on both radars. The satelites tell a different story, a SOUTH WEST component... what is going on?

Like MWatkins, Derek, and Purdue said Chris. Use the radar from this range with caution because it is basically useless untill it gets into the short range.

#12 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 8:55 am

Chris - you can barely see the top of the eye, and only the western portion on radar. It is way too far out of range to be describing the motion. There is absolutely no way to see storm motion by looking at a radar image from thousands of feet off the ground, where only a very small portion of the eye is evident.

Don't use this:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... kmlb.shtml

Use this:
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

This,
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... e&itype=ir

or this:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

chris_fit · #13 Postby **chris_fit** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 8:55 am

Wnghs2007 wrote:
chris_fit wrote:IF you look at the radar
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/RAD_ ... mauto.html
and
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/latest/DS ... kmlb.shtml

I see NO SOUTH movement at all.... as a matter of fact a SLIGHT northward component last 2 frames on both radars. The satelites tell a different story, a SOUTH WEST component... what is going on?

Like MWatkins, Derek, and Purdue said Chris. Use the radar from this range with caution because it is basically useless untill it gets into the short range.

Even the last recon fix had a NORTH component, though slight.
Could the sat. be the ones that are introducing an illusion?

#14 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 8:57 am

The recon fix was near or before the jog. It is too early too call it a motion to the WSW or SW, but according the satellite, the pure westward motion slowed, and a significant south component was observed over the course of 30-40 minutes.

#15 Postby **loon** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 8:58 am

It was just reasoned to me that its possibly eye reorganization, and not storm movement. Sounds reasonable, I guess we'll all know soon enough...

cheers,
the loon

Wnghs2007 · #16 Postby **Wnghs2007** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 8:59 am

chris_fit wrote:Even the last recon fix had a NORTH component, though slight.
Could the sat. be the ones that are introducing an illusion?

No. Recon just found the North Eyewall Reorganizing and initalized a point or two northward. The Radar is usless and with the eyewall open the recon cant really tell the real longitude The sat pics are your best bet. Trust me dude.

Atleast until the EYE is closed

Sorry for the size just wanted to make sure you saw that. LOL. :lol:

Land interaction or Pesky ridge???

Land interaction or Pesky ridge???

Who is online