Tucking Minus 270*?

Sanibel · #1 Postby **Sanibel** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 9:06 am

I hate to admit this but the storm is showing a possible direct west and maybe even a degree south of that right now. My turn prediction could be like a toilet seat around my neck at this point. Groan. The penalty for this will be hurricane winds all the way over here on the west coast.

I hope this is just an illusion of the eye clouds...

(No joke for the east coast)

VERMONTsnow · #2 Postby **VERMONTsnow** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 9:10 am

yep, appears to be making WSW wobble right now

#3 Postby **Canelaw99** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 9:10 am

Sanibel - do you think that's a temporary motion, or something that could become a long term motion? Also, what would be causing it???

stormy1959 · #4 Postby **stormy1959** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 9:10 am

Slight north from 8:00 from 26.5N to 26.7 N

#5 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 9:11 am

The flatness you saw earlier (to be honest I saw a little, but not much) is now gone and the outflow is completely circular. I think the flatness had something to do with the lack of convection on the west side, and perhaps some temporary stronger ridging. The current slower and W-WSW motion would probably indicate that Jeanne is feeling this ridge right now. I think we all learned something out of this though...at least I did.

#6 Postby **loon** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 9:14 am

I still see flatness on WV on the western side....

chris_fit · #7 Postby **chris_fit** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 9:14 am

On radar i actually see west with a SLIGHT northward component. However, several member informed me that radar this far out, isnt reliable.

Honestly, IMO, I think radar is correct. One radar maybe be off, but both Melbourne and Miami Radars showing the same thing? Could be an illusion on part of the satelites IMO.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... kmlb.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... kamx.shtml
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/RAD_ ... mauto.html

Hyperstorm · #8 Postby **Hyperstorm** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 9:21 am

This is most likely a temporary wobble. Do NOT focus on short-term wobbles.

As soon as people post this, the hurricane appears to wobble back to the north-northwest...

#9 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 9:24 am

Ok, the eyewall organization going on right now is causing trochoidal wobbles. These are sending the eye all over the place, so all we have to do is listen to what the NHC tells us. There will be some average motion out of this, most likely just a continuation of the previous motion towards the west. Chris - give it up. This is a major caveat of radar that far out - you can't even see the majority of the storm...not even half of it really.

See this for more info regarding the errors of long range targets:
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~justin ... portan.htm

VERMONTsnow · #10 Postby **VERMONTsnow** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 9:26 am

due West, with slight wobbles N and S, seems to be the course

VERMONTsnow · #11 Postby **VERMONTsnow** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 9:29 am

crikes! I'm worried this is going to be stronger than Ivan at landfall! Unfortunately, media hype not as big because intensity was not accuratetly forcasted well enough in advance; I'm worried people are not evacuating

chris_fit · #12 Postby **chris_fit** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 9:31 am

PurdueWx80 wrote:Ok, the eyewall organization going on right now is causing trochoidal wobbles. These are sending the eye all over the place, so all we have to do is listen to what the NHC tells us. There will be some average motion out of this, most likely just a continuation of the previous motion towards the west. Chris - give it up. This is a major caveat of radar that far out - you can't even see the majority of the storm...not even half of it really.

See this for more info regarding the errors of long range targets:
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~justin ... portan.htm

You can see the entire eye, and where it is moving. All I'm saying is the satelite and radar images do not coincide. I don't think we will see a jump in the eye as the radar "gets in range"

#13 Postby **loon** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 9:32 am

Thats right chris, you tell em! Don't give up!

(just kidding, that link he had explains well.)

Lets just all agree that its moving west, with slight jogs east and a tricky clockwise spin everyonce in awhile. k, thanks.

cheers,
the loon

:lol:

#14 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 9:35 am

That's the entire eye/eyewall???

chris_fit · #15 Postby **chris_fit** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 9:37 am

According to recon that verifies as it is open NE quad.

Derecho · #16 Postby **Derecho** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 9:40 am

The track has been a fairly steady just N of due W (275) for a VERY long time...with some wobbles. It's possible that over the last few hours the track is shifting a tad more N of due W.

I see the satellite hallucination has begun big-time, though. Sigh. People weren't able to successfully hallucinate Ivan into New Orleans, I wonder when it will finally stop.

#17 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 9:41 am

I give up - if that link can't explain to you why the radar is junk that far out, then there is no reason to keep trying to force this into that stubborn head of yours.

By the way, you're comparing a current radar image to a recon report from more than an hour and a half ago. Eyewalls are transient, they build/dissipate, and the openings generally move w/ the cyclonic motion of the storm.

#18 Postby **loon** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 9:44 am

Derecho wrote:The track has been a fairly steady just N of due W (275) for a VERY long time...with some wobbles. It's possible that over the last few hours the track is shifting a tad more N of due W.

I see the satellite hallucination has begun big-time, though. Sigh. People weren't able to successfully hallucinate Ivan into New Orleans, I wonder when it will finally stop.

Its only done to spite you, and make your life miserable, you should know that.....

cheers,
the loon

chris_fit · #19 Postby **chris_fit** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 9:49 am

PurdueWx80 wrote:I give up - if that link can't explain to you why the radar is junk that far out, then there is no reason to keep trying to force this into that stubborn head of yours.

By the way, you're comparing a current radar image to a recon report from more than an hour and a half ago. Eyewalls are transient, they build/dissipate, and the openings generally move w/ the cyclonic motion of the storm.

Purdue I'm not being an ass or anything. I thank you for your replies and explanations as I am always learning....
Eye wall is closed now... new recon confirms this, and another slight nortward component.

URNT12 KNHC 251429
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 25/1429Z
B. 26 DEG 35 MIN N
77 DEG 27 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2700 M
D. 85 KT
E. 051 DEG 29 NM
F. 145 DEG 113 KT
G. 051 DEG 030 NM
H. 956 MB
I. 11 C/ 3100 M
J. 15 C/ 3098 M
K. 12 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. E05/40/30
N. 1234/07
O. 0.1/3 NM
P. AF963 2111A JEANNE OB 18
MAX FL WIND 113 KT NE QUAD 1420Z. MAX FL TEMP 16C 048/19NM FROM

Feeling more confident in that radar ;-)

#20 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 9:54 am

The longer we have this argument, the more accurate you will become as Jeanne gets closer and closer to Miami's radar. The eye appears to be closed now because the beam can finally see the tops of the clouds on the eastern side. It's not like it magically just closed as soon as the recon confirmed this. I suppose the convection on the E side really is indicative of the 10-15 dBz shown on radar. :lol:

Tucking Minus 270*?

Tucking Minus 270*?

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