HURRICANE JEANNE
NJN WEATHER CENTER
11AM SAT SEPT 25TH 2004
Hurricane Jeanne continues her westward march through the northern Bahamas this morning and is now 18 hours, maybe sooner from striking Florida. Jeanne as of 8am was still a moderate Cat 2 and still potential was there for her to become a Cat 3. We pray she doesn't "bomb" in the 85-86 degree waters. Even Governor Bush said a 4 is not out of the question.
Jeanne is looking healthy despite a ragged appearance. Her eye is clearly visible and her stronger thunderstorms are starting to wrap around the center as she approaches. This could cause her to make that push to a Cat 3 and landfall.
Rain bands and tropical storm force winds are already pelting parts of the coast, these bands will only move further inland. The forecast path for Jeanne.. is back to the path I mentioned Thursday, which had her not making the NW turn till late and then shooting up the Central Fla area.
The turn will be due to an approaching trough and a weakness possibly in the ridge. This will force Jeanne N or NW and then cause her hurricane force winds to be felt throughout the entire peninsula.
Jeanne is not moving as fast as Charley, but is clipping along. This will cause her winds to be felt inland as well as on the coast of course.
The strongest winds will be at the coast and especially in Jeanne's NE quadrant. This will also cause the tornado threat to be high across the peninsula and at the coast.
Winds along the coast should easily be 110mph or higher with gusts near 150 to maybe even 160. It all depends how much Jeanne strengthens as she approaches.
Winds Inland will be hurricane force, with the strongest winds being in inland Brevard as well as Osceola and maybe Orange County. This means Kissimmee/St Cloud and even Orlando may see winds stronger than Hurricane Charley's.
Jeanne is forecast to then rapidly weaken to a TS as she approaches the Fla/GA border on Monday.
Here is the most recent forecast of mine on Jeanne:
Today: Rain bands already affecting Fla. Strengthening likely. Max Winds:115 mph
Sunday: Making Landfall somewhere between West Palm and Vero, maybe even further North. Very strong winds inland. Max Winds {at landfall}: 125 mph
Monday: Near the Fla/GA border. Moving North fast. Max Winds: 55 mph
Tuesday: Into the Carolina's. Mostly a rain maker. Max Winds: 40 mph
Wednesday: A Rainmaker in VA or points north/east. Max Winds: 35 mph
DISCLAIMER: This forecast is written by an amateur and should not be used in making critical decisions. Especially life or death decisions. For more details, please listen to local media or the NHC.
Comments welcomed
