Jacksonville, FL/St. Marys, GA...Please give me some advice!

[Robin1122]

Ok, I am now as confused as ever. I hate to be a pest on this board....but I have to say that I have no idea what to do. As I stated yesterday, we live in a low lying area, on the intercoastal waterway with many tall Spanish Oak trees that I am not overly confident about their root structures. After last night's report of potential 75-90 mph winds, we got up VERY early this morning and have packed up all of our precious pictures, belongings, etc..., cleared out our freezer, packed up the cars and are ready to leave to go to Columbia, SC with the kids and the dogs. Now, just a moment ago, I hear on a Jax radio station that we are only going to be getting 25-35 winds. Now we are tempted to unload everything and stay. Any advice? I must confess.....I am so SICK of worrying about this!!! Please help a poor mommy in distress....before they have to check me into the crazy farm!!!

[TigerMo]

Check your local NWS forecast and discussions. Hopefully, that far north, the impact will not be too bad, but everbody's situation is a little different - if you are under a large tree that could fall on the house, or in a structure that isn't too sturdy, or in an area very prone to flooding, you might want to go.

Any neighbors in the area that have been there for ever and been through some storms that can offer some local advice?

One final note, they are predicting a lot of tornados to the NE of the eye, so be on the lookout for those as well.

Be safe and good luck.

[chicagopizza]

they are telling us to be prepared for 40 to 70 mile per hour winds (local tv stations), so I am confused why you would get less. I know how you feel though. Even though I am not on water, my house is a virtual forest-lots of tall pines and a HUGE oak in front of our living room.

If you go to wunderground and go to Jeanne, you can look under probabilities and click on your area or maybe Jax and they will have a local advisory listed.

Hope that helps.

[Anonymous]

Hey Neighbor....
It looks like we are expecting 40-50 mph winds sustained right now--the hurricane watch hasnt been upgraded to a warning... this is good news for us---interresting weather ahead but we may escape the brunt of yet another hurricane! I am in a mobile home and thinking about maybe stayying-I am getting numb to these hurricanes lol... We are gonna be in the eastern eyewall though so listen for tornado warnings and be prepared to act quickly if one comes your way... Official forecast below...

Sunday. Strong winds. Showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 80s. Northeast winds increasing to 40 to 50 mph and gusty. Chance of rain 80 percent. Hurricane conditions possible.

Sunday night. Strong winds. Showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s. Northeast winds 40 to 50 mph and gusty becoming northwest 30 to 40 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 90 percent. Hurricane conditions possible.

[Islandgirl]

I too was ready to go with the idea of 75+ winds, but that was changed today and we are expecting 40 to 50 now. Soooo, we are staying here. I am a little nervous because they have consistently said it will be worse than Frances. And that was no fun.It was actually a little scary when we heard the trees hitting the ground when they fell, and limbs hitting up against the house. We also had fluctuating power ,with it off for 12 hours at one point. Compared to FL , that's just a drop in the bucket , but we just don't usually get this kind of weather.

[USCG_Hurricane_Watcher]

My parents live in Kingsland...they're staying put.

[wxman57]

By my latest calculations, Jacksonville would be on the edge of the 40 mph sustained wind field (accounting for frictional reduction of wind radii to the northeast of the storm center as it crosses the peninsula). So I'd expect sustained winds there in Jacksonville of around 35-45 mph but squalls could produce gusts of 25-30% higher than the sustained wind. Since the strongest wind will blow from the SE-SSE, expect a set-up tide of possibly 3-4 feet above normal on Sunday.

Of course, the above assumes that Jeanne follows the forecast path and passes north of Tampa around 9am tomorrow morning then northward near the western side of the Peninsula.

[gatorbabe79]

I am on the St Johns river facing SW. Is that side going to be the gentler side? I have alot of french doors and windows and I only have time to board up the side facing the greatest wind potential which I assume is NE. Thanks for any help out there!!

[jdray]

Listen to George Winterling and his staff @ Channel 4 news.
http://www.news4jax.com

He knows Hurricanes better than most NHC staff and a good deal more Mets. He has been forecasting for the Jacksonville area for over 42 years. He knows what landfalling Hurricanes can do in this area.


BTW, NWS experimental charts are located here:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ifps/gridpoint.php?site=jax

click on the area near where you live and it will give a good idea of what to expect. My area should be 45-55 MPH sustained with higher gusts to 70-75 during the worst part of it.
Should be about 24 hours of TS force winds in my area.

Another Frances situation, but this time a little stronger. If it jogs north of the track, expect worse, south of the track, expect better.

Also remember, we will be in the North and East part of the storm for over 24 hours AGAIN like Frances. This is the most dangerous part, expect to get a lot of Tornadic activity and we will probably all lose power again.