JOG..................

bobbisboy · #1 Postby **bobbisboy** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 11:06 am

Is this jog WNW due to interaction with the islands ??

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

chris_fit · #2 Postby **chris_fit** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 11:07 am

Not sure.

I see it in radar too.

I'm not liking it

Kiern · #3 Postby **Kiern** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 11:07 am

Nope, just the eye centering. Still moving due west.

logybogy · #4 Postby **logybogy** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 11:10 am

It's moving due west. Can you see the eye is shaped like an oval not a perfect circle?

The oval is just rotating around.

#5 Postby **Jevo** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 11:12 am

Guys youre forecasting a eliptical eye... The storm is still on a steady 270 as stated by Ed Rappaport 5 mins ago on WSVN 7. The eye looks like a football so when it rotates it looks like its wobbling/jogging.. but track a center plot and it is a steady 270 at the most 273. He also stated that he does not expect a turn until after landfall.

The high is a beast and its still moving West

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

logybogy · #6 Postby **logybogy** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 11:12 am

Ignore the satellite.

Look at the radar.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... kamx.shtml

You can see it's moving due west with the eye oval rotating around.

calidoug · #7 Postby **calidoug** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 11:13 am

No, the whole storm took a jog NW. Could just be trochoidal motion, need more radar and sat to know for sure.

guanaskip · #8 Postby **guanaskip** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 11:13 am

if due west why has it going up great abaco about 60 miles to little abaco instead of due east. it looks like its going right up the one road that runs N and S.

Hyperstorm · #9 Postby **Hyperstorm** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 11:16 am

The motion you see is a start of a WNW track that if it continues (as I expect) will take the center north of West Palm Beach.

People, this was LONG advertised by the models and is now coming to fruition. I know the westward heading it has had is tempting...but the hurricane WILL turn WNW eventually...and it looks like this is the start of it...

logybogy · #10 Postby **logybogy** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 11:18 am

What is wrong with you people?

Look at the radar link.

The ellptical eye is rotating due west. As the elpitical eye rotates, it will become elognated north/south and then rotate to be elongated east/west.

The motion is 270.

Just look at the radar.

Due west.

Kiern · #11 Postby **Kiern** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 11:19 am

logybogy wrote:Ignore the satellite.

Look at the radar.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... kamx.shtml

You can see it's moving due west with the eye oval rotating around.

Great radar shot. Man we're getting the eye looks like.

Foladar · #12 Postby **Foladar** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 11:21 am

It's not due west, it was 26.5N now it is 26.6N, it's moving slowly north, I bet 1pm will be 26.7N atleast

calidoug · #13 Postby **calidoug** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 11:21 am

Radar now shows some wnw movement-- only question is: trochoidal, or slight turn?

Hyperstorm · #14 Postby **Hyperstorm** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 11:24 am

This is the START.

Remember, a hurricane at this speed will NOT make a 180 degree change in track in a matter of MINUTES. It is something that will occur GRADUALLY.

The more northern "wobble" represents a transfer of energy to a more WNW heading eventually. They start doing these "wobbles" more frequently and more pronounced before they make a pronounced turn.

This tells me that this is the START...

#15 Postby **Jevo** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 11:28 am

Bottom line is this storm needs to move 292 right now to make forecast landfall location.

Bottom line

logybogy · #16 Postby **logybogy** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 11:28 am

Hyperstorm, look at the radar.

It's moving due west. I don't know how many times I can say it.

I guess people will want to see what they want to see.

The eye is clearly moving 270, any apparent north job is because of the elliptical nature of the eye. As it rotates again, it'll appear to jog south and someone will surely start another WSW jog thread!

storms NC · #17 Postby **storms NC** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 11:29 am

Is there some wishcaster here? I would have thought every one in Fla would be glad that it might be moving Nw. But I ran a WV loop and it is going north. And yes it could be a wobble. Lets just wait a few hours and see. I don't understand Why most of you in Fla want Jeanne. I am glad for us here that you all are getting it since Fla wants it. I am going Fishing. be safe.

Hyperstorm · #18 Postby **Hyperstorm** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 11:30 am

logybogy wrote:Hyperstorm, look at the radar.

It's moving due west. I don't know how many times I can say it.

I guess people will want to see what they want to see.

The eye is clearly moving 270, any apparent north job is because of the elliptical nature of the eye. As it rotates again, it'll appear to jog south and someone will surely start another WSW jog thread!

No. The hurricane is starting to have a northward component.

Watch and wait...

golter · #19 Postby **golter** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 11:30 am

put up forcast points on NHC radar and you can see that it is North of their track.

ColinD · #20 Postby **ColinD** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 11:31 am

A. 25/1606Z
B. 26 DEG 46 MIN N
77 DEG 46 MIN W

26.8N

JOG..................

JOG..................

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