Question for Mike Watkins ???

[Collier Canetracker]

Mike, from your comments for the last few days there seems to be such a disparity between your track thoughts and those of the NHC. How far off do you think their track is at the present time? Derek Ortt's track is south of Okeechobee with an exit around Sarasota/Charlotte County - do you agree with that track?

Any signs that the NHC might be right after all?

[MWatkins]

Mike, from your comments for the last few days there seems to be such a disparity between your track thoughts and those of the NHC. How far off do you think their track is at the present time? Derek Ortt's track is south of Okeechobee with an exit around Sarasota/Charlotte County - do you agree with that track?

Any signs that the NHC might be right after all?

There are signs. Much of the western extent of the ridging we saw west of the hurrcane has erroded looking at 12Z upper air analysis.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/obswx/maps/500_040925_12.gif

The real question will become will there be just enough ridging north of the hurricane to nudge it in on the coast or allow for a last min turn?

RUC analysis says the NHC turn will happen...but the ETA seems too slow with the hurricane over the 12 hour period.

I still think WPB/Martin county line. But it is going to come down to the last play on 4th down with 0:02 seconds on the clock.

MW

[Rainband]

So it may not make landfall mike?? I am confused. That would be excellent news!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[NativeFloridaGirl]

It's really going to turn? They're saying on TV that it'll be here by 9pm tonight, but it might miss the coast altogether now? I'm too tired to even do a happy dance at this point, but that would be awesome!

~Beth~