27N at 2PM....9 HOURS EARLY

[bobbisboy]

At 11AM this was the forecast for 11PM tonight so JEANNE has reached this latitude 9 hours early. I would think the track will be adjusted accordingly at 5PM. We will see.

INITIAL 25/1500Z 26.6N 77.6W 100 KT
12HR VT 26/0000Z 27.0N 79.5W 110 KT

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

Thank you for posting this....I was trying to get some answers as to why this has happened early on my other post, but preschool got out early , so didnt get the answer i was looking for!

[Scorpion]

A jog northwest. It will come back west and hit the area where the NHC has said it will it.

[seahawkjd]

I'd say either it was dancing around the island, which is possible, or the high is moving out and allowing it to move more north then expected as of last night / this morning. Would love to hear more educated perspective on which it is and not what I'm afraid will follow.

[calidoug]

I expect the track may shift to Melbourne at 5PM. (There will be no 2PM track update)

Here's the 11AM track:



And here is the latest IR pic:



That said, for the past frame or two, it's been almost due W again, so I wouldn't get carried away with N expectations.

Melbourne, FL? Probably.

SC landfall? No.

[Innotech]

also remember hurricanes are stacked layers and hte direction any one layer is oging is not necessarily the net motion...

[JTD]

I expect the track may shift to Melbourne at 5PM. (There will be no 2PM track update)


That said, for the past frame or two, it's been almost due W again, so I wouldn't get carried away with N expectations.

Melbourne, FL? Probably.

SC landfall? No.

EXCELLENT, EXCELLENT POST!! CaliDoug, you nailed the track bang on. I think.

[Hyperstorm]

It doesn't matter if the storm has turned West during the last frame or two, the motion will remain WNW.

One image W, then N, then W, then N....

People need to realize that hurricanes do NOT travel in straight lines!

[Foladar]

Hate to tell you, but this was traveling a straight line, look at the track man.

[Juno Beach]

The forward speed whiff by the NHC has me sort of ticked off.

They tell us they can't accurately predict landfall - understood. They tell us they can't accurately predict intensity - understood. Now they can't predict an increase in forward speed - when it friggin' doubles?!

What exactly CAN they predict? That it's going to rain and the wind is going to blow?

[Hyperstorm]

Hate to tell you, but this was traveling a straight line, look at the track man.

They don't. That is hardly a straight line. Hurricanes will always have wobbles among the track and the job of the NHC is to average out the line as much as possible, not taking into account EVERY SINGLE wobble.

If they do, we'd be looking at some horrific tracks...

[jlauderdal]

also remember hurricanes are stacked layers and hte direction any one layer is oging is not necessarily the net motion...

that is a very good post..good info for those that didnt understand that concept

[PurdueWx80]

Where's this 2 p.m. advisory??? There isn't one...they NHC is doing advisories every 2 hours now...11 a.m., 1 p.m. 3 p.m. 5 p.m. etc. The storm is at 26 degrees and 51 min north...like the new vortex says. The title shows false information.

EDIT: I just saw the 2 p.m. intermed advisory. It says they estimated the center to be at 27N, but the recon now shows this estimation was a little off. The storm hasn't quite made it to the "11 p.m. forecast" yet though.

[inotherwords]

What exactly CAN they predict?

That armchair amateurs in this forum will try to second-guess them every single time and expect them to be perfect? I'd say that would be a safe bet.

[birdwomn]

What exactly CAN they predict? That it's going to rain and the wind is going to blow?

Well, sometimes, there isn't as much rain as they expect, or there is more...or vice versa...

so, let's just say that while we humans are much better are tracking and predicting these storms, we are not yet perfect. I personally they they do a decent job, but it is far for an exact science, IMO

[canecaster]

I see nothing anywhere to say the storm is now at 27 N
What are you basing this position on?

[rdcrds]

I see nothing anywhere to say the storm is now at 27 N
What are you basing this position on?

Tampa weatherman just said 27north as of 2pm

[Juno Beach]

I see nothing anywhere to say the storm is now at 27 N
What are you basing this position on?

Local mets repeated it constantly - credited a 2pm NHC update. Directly east of Tequesta.

[PurdueWx80]

The advisory did say this..it's in the new recon post...which also shows the true center to be at 26.85 N.

[Juno Beach]

What exactly CAN they predict?

That armchair amateurs in this forum will try to second-guess them every single time and expect them to be perfect? I'd say that would be a safe bet.

Look, I know they do a great job, and do all they can. I guess my tone was less than appreciative, but I'm worn out by this stuff. I'm not trying to knock them.

Maybe I should have just asked why they can't give us more of an "if/then" forecast - like IF it speeds up, THIS will happen, and IF it maintains it's present speed, THIS will happen.

Derek and others on here seemed to have a better handle on the speed than they did.