As of 9:45am there no direct indications that any sort of northward turn is emminent. As a result...folks in Palm Beach county should prepare as if the hurricane is going to come directly over them. Don't count on a turn...if it happens great...not great for points north but great for you. But do not count on it.
Anyone in the warning area needs to get ready now and stop messing around here. That includes me...I am taking my own advice and wrapping up a few things. I'll be back around noon or so to check in.
Good luck to everyone....
MW
Not Moving North...Palm Beach Needs to Rush Preparations
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
Not Moving North...Palm Beach Needs to Rush Preparations
0 likes
Updating on the twitter now: http://www.twitter.com/@watkinstrack
-
donsutherland1
- S2K Analyst
- Posts: 2718
- Joined: Mon Sep 15, 2003 8:49 pm
- Location: New York
GulfHills,
An examination of the WV loops delineates the ridge that is driving Jeanne. Barring greater erosion of the ridge than appears likely, Jeanne almost certainly will not merely skirt Florida's east coast. She should punch inland, making landfall within 35 miles of West Palm Beach while she is in the early stages of making a gradual recurvature. There is a chance she could get as far as the western Gulf of Mexico before she has recurved e.g., in my view, as far as 84.5°W, though I'm not yet ready to commit to that idea.
An examination of the WV loops delineates the ridge that is driving Jeanne. Barring greater erosion of the ridge than appears likely, Jeanne almost certainly will not merely skirt Florida's east coast. She should punch inland, making landfall within 35 miles of West Palm Beach while she is in the early stages of making a gradual recurvature. There is a chance she could get as far as the western Gulf of Mexico before she has recurved e.g., in my view, as far as 84.5°W, though I'm not yet ready to commit to that idea.
0 likes
-
KeyLargoDave
- Category 1
- Posts: 423
- Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 4:03 pm
- Location: 25 05' 80 26'
- Contact:
-
LAwxrgal
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1763
- Joined: Tue Jul 06, 2004 1:05 pm
- Location: Reserve, LA (30 mi west of NOLA)
PTPatrick wrote:I agree...I went through this last week Ivan. It was headed straight at Pascagoula, MS but a turn was forecast for it to go up into Mobile Bay. Believe me I was not waiting around for that turn as it happened way too close for comfort. Get to a safe place folks!
I agree Patrick. NOLA forecasters were waiting for the turn to take place (which did happen) but I wasn't! I got out of dodge.
0 likes
Andrew 92/Isidore & Lili 02/Bill 03/Katrina & Rita 05/Gustav & Ike 08/Isaac 12 (flooded my house)/Harvey 17/Barry 19/Cristobal 20/Claudette 21/Ida 21 (In the Eye)/Francine 24
Wake me up when November ends
Wake me up when November ends
Don't forget Andrew, ladies and gents.
That half degree turn to the south just prior to landfall was the difference between Miami getting creamed and Homestead/South Miami getting creamed.
I would absolutely in no way shape or form make any decision that would threaten ones life based on this half degree jog over the last 12 hours. It can easily swing back south and then some before it gets here.
That half degree turn to the south just prior to landfall was the difference between Miami getting creamed and Homestead/South Miami getting creamed.
I would absolutely in no way shape or form make any decision that would threaten ones life based on this half degree jog over the last 12 hours. It can easily swing back south and then some before it gets here.
0 likes
-
Weatherboy1
- Category 5
- Posts: 1190
- Age: 50
- Joined: Mon Jul 05, 2004 1:50 pm
- Location: Jupiter/Sarasota, FL
figuring on about 2-3 hours of power left
Well, based on the latest radar and satelite loops, it looks like I probably have about 2-3 hours of power left. Unless Jeanne starts gaining some northerly movement very soon, we could get the SW eyewall here in Jupiter. We're in what I expect to be the last lull before the central core of the storm moves in. If I don't post again, it's probably because I'm sitting somewhere with a flashlight on!
0 likes
-
LAwxrgal
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1763
- Joined: Tue Jul 06, 2004 1:05 pm
- Location: Reserve, LA (30 mi west of NOLA)
cat wrote:Don't forget Andrew, ladies and gents.
That half degree turn to the south just prior to landfall was the difference between Miami getting creamed and Homestead/South Miami getting creamed.
I would absolutely in no way shape or form make any decision that would threaten ones life based on this half degree jog over the last 12 hours. It can easily swing back south and then some before it gets here.
More recently Ivan. Ivan was headed to NOLA, then Pascagoula, then Mobile Bay...that little jog he took eastward spared the Mobile area the worst of the storm. Gulf Shores to Pensacola took the worst of Ivan, areas east of Mobile.
0 likes
Andrew 92/Isidore & Lili 02/Bill 03/Katrina & Rita 05/Gustav & Ike 08/Isaac 12 (flooded my house)/Harvey 17/Barry 19/Cristobal 20/Claudette 21/Ida 21 (In the Eye)/Francine 24
Wake me up when November ends
Wake me up when November ends
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 335 guests