Melbourne WS Declaring a WNW Movement

[shorrock]

000
WTUS82 KMLB 251744
HLSMLB
AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
252345-

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
140 PM EDT SAT SEP 25 2004

...DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE JEANNE HEADING FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
COAST...
...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM FLORIDA CITY TO SAINT
AUGUSTINE WHICH INCLUDES ALL OF THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST...
...AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR ALL
INTERIOR COUNTIES OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...


...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN
BY RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...VOLUSIA...LAKE...SEMINOLE...
ORANGE...BREVARD...OSCEOLA...INDIAN RIVER...SAINT LUCIE...MARTIN
AND OKEECHOBEE.

...WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM FLORIDA CITY TO SAINT
AUGUSTINE...WHICH INCLUDES ALL OF THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COASTAL
COUNTIES FROM MARTIN TO VOLUSIA. THE HURRICANE WARNING INCLUDES LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.

AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR ALL
INTERIOR COUNTIES...INCLUDING LAKE...SEMINOLE...ORANGE...OSCEOLA...
AND OKEECHOBEE.

A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COUNTIES IN
ANTICIPATION OF HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE JEANNE.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 135 PM EDT...THE 40 MILE WIDE EYE OF HURRICANE JEANNE WAS LOCATED
BY RADAR ABOUT 145 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF FORT PIERCE FLORIDA.

JEANNE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 115 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FURTHER
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TODAY.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
RESIDENTS SHOULD HAVE COMPLETED ALL PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS FOR JEANNE.
NOW IS THE TIME TO PICK YOUR SPOT TO RIDE OUT THE STORM. AN INTERIOR
ROOM WITH NO WINDOWS IN A WELL CONSTRUCTED HOUSE OUTSIDE OF THE
EVACUATION ZONE IS BEST. HAVE A BATTERY OPERATED NOAA WEATHER AND AM
AND FM RADIOS WITH YOU TO RECEIVE CRITICAL UPDATES DURING THE
APPROACH OF JEANNE AFTER THE POWER GOES OUT. HAVE MATTRESSES AND
PILLOWS FOR COMFORT AND PROTECTION.

...WIND IMPACTS...
JEANNE IS MOVING NORTH OF WEST AND IS LIKELY TO MAKE LANDFALL
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN STUART AND VERO BEACH OR EVEN SEBASTIAN INLET AS A
MAJOR CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE AND SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS
POSSIBLE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES AND
VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE COAST OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IS ASSURED OF
RECEIVING SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OR HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS.
WIND DAMAGE NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE JEANNE MAKES LANDFALL WILL
BE EXTREME AND SIMILAR TO THAT WITH IVAN.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF
MARTIN...INDIAN RIVER AND ST LUCIE COUNTIES BY 3 OR 4 PM AND SPREAD
OVER ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING THE NIGHT. HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS WILL BEGIN OVER MARTIN...MARTIN...ST LUCIE COUNTIES THIS
EVENING AND SPREAD OVER BREVARD COUNTY AND INLAND OVER THE ORLANDO
METRO AREA DURING THE NIGHT.

INLAND WIND DAMAGE MAY WELL BE WORSE THAN WITH CHARLEY. TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD OVER SEMINOLE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE OVER VOLUSIA
COUNTY EARLY SUNDAY.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL
ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. HIGH TIDES ARE RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL AND
OCCUR AROUND 6 AM SUNDAY. A STORM SURGE OF UP TO 7 FEET ABOVE THE
PRESENT WATER LEVEL IS LIKELY TO OCCUR MAINLY ON THE EAST SIDE OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

...FLOOD IMPACTS...
THE FLOOD THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH JEANNE IS EXTREME. AS A RESULT...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COUNTIES.
THE WATER TABLE IS ALREADY HIGH ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA DUE TO
COPIOUS RAINFALL THROUGHOUT THE SUMMER...INCLUDING HURRICANES CHARLEY
AND FRANCES. MANY AREAS ALREADY HAVE STANDING WATER...AND IN SOME
CASES...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER...PROPERTIES ARE
ALREADY UNDER WATER.

BETWEEN 6 AND 12 INCHES OF RAIN ARE FORECAST ALONG AND NEAR THE TRACK
OF THE CENTER OF JEANNE. THIS WILL AGGRAVATE PRE-EXISTING FLOODING
CONDITIONS...AND ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS HIGHLY LIKELY IN MANY AREAS.
BLOCKAGE OF STORM DRAINS...STREAMS...CANALS AND OTHER NATURAL AND
MAN MADE RETENTION AREAS MAY ALSO AGGRAVATE THE POTENTIAL FLOOD
THREAT AS THESE HAVE VERY LITTLE ROOM TO HANDLE ADDITIONAL RUNOFF.

THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER WHICH IS ALREADY IN FLOOD CAN EXPECT ADDITIONAL
RISES...WITH MAJOR FLOODING A POSSIBILITY. IF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE REALIZED OVER THE SAINT JOHNS BASIN IN CENTRAL FLORIDA...
AN INITIAL RISE IN THE WATER LEVEL NEAR DELAND...ABOVE LAKE HARNEY...
AND NEAR SANFORD...WILL OCCUR WITH THE HEAVY RAIN. THEN OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...RIVER LEVELS WILL RESPOND TO THE ADDITIONAL RUNOFF.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 6 PM
TODAY...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

[PanAmMIA]

There's another update from NWS Melbourne:
000
FXUS62 KMLB 251802
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
155 PM EDT SAT SEP 25 2004

...MAJOR HURRICANE JEANNE CLOSING IN ON THE SPACE AND TREASURE
COASTS...

.DISCUSSION...

CENTER FIXES FROM RECON/RADAR INDICATED THAT A NORTHWARD TROCHOIDAL
WOBBLE OCCURRED BTWN 1430Z AND 1600Z. AS JEANNE APPROACHES THE WRN
FLANK OF THE SUBTROP RIDGE...EACH ONE OF THESE NWD WOBBLES THAT
OCCUR WILL PUSH THE LANDFALL POINT SUCCESSIVELY FARTHER NORTH UP THE
COAST...EVEN AS THE TRACK CONTINUES GENERALLY BTWN W-WNW. AGAIN
...THIS IS WHY IT IS IMPORTANT *NOT* TO PLACE TOO MUCH EMPHASIS ON
THE POINT/LINE FORECASTS...AS WE HAVE SEEN WITH EARLIER HURRICANES.

TONIGHT...PRIMARY RAIN BANDS WILL BE SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA FROM LATE AFTERNOON ONWARD. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SQUALLS BEGINNING THIS
EVENING WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS INITIALLY OVER THE TREASURE AND
SPACE COAST TONIGHT SPREADING INTO THE REMAINDER OF EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA EARLY ON SUNDAY. PERSONS IN EAST CENTRAL FL SHOULD HAVE
ALREADY COMPLETED PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS.

REFER TO SPECIAL WEATHER/SEVERE WEATHER/HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENTS
FROM NWS MELBOURNE...AS WELL AS NHC STATEMENTS/POSITION ESTIMATES
FOR THE LATEST UP TO DATE INFORMATION ON LOCAL EFFECTS FROM JEANNE.

SUN-MON...JEANNE WILL BE SOMEWHERE OVER THE CTRL OR EAST CTRL PENIN
BY 12Z SUN....TURNING TO THE NW AND EVENTUALLY NNW AS IT MAKES IT'S
WAY THROUGH THE CWA AND INTO NORTH FL. SQUALLS SHOULD PRODUCE WIND
GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS NOT THAT FAR OFF.
CONDS WILL SLOWLY ABATE LATE IN THE DAY AS JEANNE WEAKENS TO A T.S.
OVER LAND...WHICH IS FCST TO OCCUR BY LATE AFTN OR EARLY EVENING.
STILL QUITE WINDY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND WILL LIKELY NEED
WIND ADVISORY WHEN AND IF T.C. WARNINGS ARE LOWERED. AS THE MARINE
AND WIND THREATS SLOWLY WANE...EMPHASIS WILL SHIFT TO HEAVY RAIN/
FLOODING CONCERNS AS WELL AS TORNADIC ACTIVITY. ANTICIPATE PRETTY
LONG DURATION TOR WATCH...SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED WITH CHARLEY
AND FRANCES.

TUE-SAT...WEAK PRES PATTERN IN THE WAKE OF JEANNE THRU MID WEEK...
WITH LINGERING MOISTURE FUELING SCT POPS...TYPICAL OF LATE FALL.
HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE WRN ATLC BY LATE WEEK WILL CAUSE FLOW
TO BACK TO ONSHORE BY WEEK'S AND...WITH POPS STAYING IN THE 20-30
RANGE.

&&

.MARINE...WORST OF THE MARINE CONDS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH A VERY SLOW EASING OF THE EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS MARINE WX CONDS
MON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SCA CONDS THROUGH AT LEAST MON NIGHT
ONCE T.C. WARNINGS ARE DROPPED.


&&


.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HURRICANE WARNING FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET.
INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING ALL INTERIOR COUNTIES.
FLOOD WATCH ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH SUNDAY.
RIVER FLOOD WARNING MIDDLE SAINT JOHNS RIVER BASIN.


SHORT TERM...PENDERGRAST
LONG TERM...CRISTALDI
HURRICANE STATEMENTS...HAGEMEYER
HYRDOLOGY...GLITTO
MET WATCH...KELLY

[wxwatcher2]

Melbourne is the landfall spot.

[Sanibel]

We'll have to call Melbourne and tell them how silly they are because certain board members say that isn't happening (even though it is obvious)...

[PanAmMIA]

We'll have to call Melbourne and tell them how silly they are because certain board members say that isn't happening (even though it is obvious)...

I suppose if anyone's planning to call NWS Melbourne they should do it before the phone lines go down
Mike

[NorthGaWeather]

We'll have to call Melbourne and tell them how silly they are because certain board members say that isn't happening (even though it is obvious)...

LOL I needed that laugh. I'd like to know whats causing the recurve in your other post since its obvious nothing synoptic is doing it, but since you hold a Met degree why don't you clarify it.

[dhweather]

EVEN AS THE TRACK CONTINUES GENERALLY BTWN W-WNW. AGAIN
...THIS IS WHY IT IS IMPORTANT *NOT* TO PLACE TOO MUCH EMPHASIS ON
THE POINT/LINE FORECASTS...AS WE HAVE SEEN WITH EARLIER HURRICANES.


wow, I wish some people would read this.....

[LAwxrgal]

EVEN AS THE TRACK CONTINUES GENERALLY BTWN W-WNW. AGAIN
...THIS IS WHY IT IS IMPORTANT *NOT* TO PLACE TOO MUCH EMPHASIS ON
THE POINT/LINE FORECASTS...AS WE HAVE SEEN WITH EARLIER HURRICANES.


wow, I wish some people would read this.....

Agreed. A hurricane is not a point. The fact is a good chunk of Florida will be affected by this system.

[Sanibel]

I don't understand your point NorthGeorgiaWX? Are you saying the NWS meteorologists who claimed the start of a WNW track (recurve) don't have credentials and couldn't explain their logic???

Where, then, would you have the right to "LOL"?

[PurdueWx80]

Do you have a degree in meteorology, Sanibel?

The start of a WNW track does not mean recurvature by the way. You can imply that if you want, but if the storm remains WNW for 6 hours, give or take 2, then that doesn't really constitute the beginning of a recurve. If this storm is recurving, we will see a motion to the NW then N in the next 6 hours or so.

[NorthGaWeather]

Actually they say its moving between W and WNW so its not this big recurve you claim. They didn't say a NW turn would begin anytime soon. Now if they claim a NW will begin in the next 12 hrs they would be crazy because a simple look analysis charts and raobs show the high still off the NC outer Banks and the closest trough in the West CONUS. The high has drifted South over the last 24 hrs and is gradually pulling east. Right now it looks like Jeanne will turn NW over interior FL and probaley close to the Gulf again before recurving.

[Sanibel]

That is a basic misinterpretation of recurvature.


For instance, any time the cyclone departs a general west heading because it is entering a recurve that is recurvature (even if it is just the beginning). The definition "recurve" is correctly applied if a cyclone is reaching the SW edge of a ridge and starting to pull north.

This is what I was talking about last night with otherwise-knowledgeable posters ignoring what they already know. We can pretend NWS didn't say it either...

[PurdueWx80]

The storm isn't on the SW side of a ridge...if it were, it would be moving to the NW now. This storm isn't like Floyd, and neither is the synoptic setup, as you seemed to indicate last night. The NWS said the storm is moving just north of west, and they said to the WNW. Nowhere in this statement is it explicitly said that Jeanne is recurving...there isn't even a hint.

[Guest]

I wpould like to know what the point of all of Sanibel's recurvature posts.Is there a prize to be won.

The storm is going to affect a already wounded area in Palm Beach,Stuart,Ft.Pierce etc. & yet another major hurricane for Fla.so whats the point in this denial.