new forecast for jeanne... still 115KT at landfall

[Derek Ortt]

and still into GOM

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl112004forecast.html

no graphics since I am off of the causeway

[calidoug]

No 80mph gusts for Miami, then?

[djtexillini]

Looks to me like intensity will probably maintain. Cloudtops have warmed since this morning and a dry air band is beginning to work itself around from nw to s.....this will probably cut off strengthening in the short term...and only the short term remains before landfall..


http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/04_ ... _full.html


I also see no chance at a GOM emergence. My guess is no closer than 100 miles to the GOM.

[Derek Ortt]

recon continues to show falling pressures. it may take a little while for the pressures to stop falling just as it took a while for them to start falling. there is a delayed impact.

as for no chance of 100 miles near the GOM... that means Jeanne will only make it 30 miles inland. Based upon the weather patterns, this is going much farther west than that. The geostrophic wind at the 500mb steering level is too strong to allow for a turn to the north significantly

[Wnghs2007]

I want to know what the cause for the very sharp turn NE is. The ridge does not look that weak.

[djtexillini]

True....and winds may still be catching up even to the current pressure. I still dont see a 15kt increase but it could happen. With all the positives for stengthening I hate to imagine if the one saving grace of a dry air environment hadnt been there.

I may have overstated the 100mi thing. My real guess is half the width of the peninsula....turning north right in the middle...slightly east of the nhc advisory.

Where exactly due you expect GOM emergence?

[Derek Ortt]

if it goes into the gom, it would be in the extreme NE portion, kind of like jerry in 1995, probably emerging near tampa then turning north immediately

[Wnghs2007]

if it goes into the gom, it would be in the extreme NE portion, kind of like jerry in 1995, probably emerging near tampa then turning north immediately

Again Ridge does not look that weak why such a sharp turn. I think at most NNW and then maybe NNE later on But not NE or ENE. Thats a little outrageous turn.

[Derek Ortt]

thats due to the ridge eroding

[gulfcoaster53]

Glad for the slight WNW jog, now puts ctr at about 50 mi N or Sarasota (downtown St. Pete) in 24 hr. instead of the 25-30 @ 1500 UTC. Thanks for continuing to post Derek. Hope everyone in Pinellas is following this.