COULD BECOME A CAT 4 AT LANDFALL

raynpa · #1 Postby **raynpa** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 12:33 pm

WTNT41 KNHC 251508
TCDAT1
HURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER 48
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT SEP 25 2004

HIGH RESOLUTION SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE
EYE IS OVER MARSH HARBOR ON THE ABACO ISLAND. THE CLOUD PATTERN IS
MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED WITH VERY DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE EYE
AND EXCELLENT OUTFLOW. IN FACT...T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB
ARE 6.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE SUGGESTING WINDS OF 127 KNOTS.
AN AIR FORCE PLANE HAS BEEN FLYING ACROSS THE HURRICANE AND
REPORTED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 113 KNOT AT FLIGHT LEVEL. INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 100 KNOTS. THIS MAKES JEANNE A
CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE HURRICANE COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR
BEFORE LANDFALL IN FLORIDA.

canegrl04 · #2 Postby **canegrl04** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 12:35 pm

inotherwords · #3 Postby **inotherwords** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 12:37 pm

I wish people would stop assuming that the NHC saying it COULD be a cat 4 at landfall means it WILL be. Would you please change your post title to reflect this? It should read "May" be a Cat 4 at landfall. Let's stop alarming people unnecessarily.

raynpa · #4 Postby **raynpa** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 12:40 pm

I think people should be alarmed this is a very dangerous storm and should be treated that way......

SouthernWx · #5 Postby **SouthernWx** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 12:48 pm

inotherwords wrote:I wish people would stop assuming that the NHC saying it COULD be a cat 4 at landfall means it WILL be. Would you please change your post title to reflect this? It should read "May" be a Cat 4 at landfall. Let's stop alarming people unnecessarily.

Friend, we are beyond that point....a hurricane warning is in effect, there is a large and intense hurricane bearing down on the Florida east coast.

Whether it's 120 mph, 130 mph, or 140+ at landfall....there's going to be tremendous damage in the area that eyewall passes over. If folks living along the coastline from Broward to Brevard county aren't already alarmed...they should be.

Tri-State_1925 · #6 Postby **Tri-State_1925** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 12:58 pm

Yeah, that's the whole point. People should be alarmed and expecting the worst. Not sitting around like the strom is going to weaken suddenly.

inotherwords · #7 Postby **inotherwords** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 1:01 pm

There's a big difference between Cat 4 and Cat 3 as wind speeds increase exponentially. Doesn't mean Cat 3 isn't dangerous or significant, that's not the point.

The point is the title of this post is FALSE at this moment, and the poster was WRONG to post it that way.

djtexillini · #8 Postby **djtexillini** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 1:05 pm

Especially now that it appears the strengthening cycle may have let up. Eye a little distorted and cloud tops have warmed. From the current 115mph to a cat 4 is quite an increase and probably unlikely.

The difference between a min cat 3 (now) and min cat 4 (suggested by topic) is astronomical.

soonertwister · #9 Postby **soonertwister** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 2:22 pm

It isn't the wind speed that increases exponentially, it's the force and damage caused by those winds.

The force of the wind upon an object in its path increases at roughly the square of the increase in speed. So if the winds are at 100 knots (115 mph) right now, and if they increase to 120 knots (138 mph), then the force difference is 120/100 squared, or 1.44. The increase over 1 is the increase in force, so if the wind increases to category 4 at 120 knots, that will increase the force by 44% over 115 mph winds.

Not something to laugh about.

#10 Postby **dhweather** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 2:26 pm

soonertwister wrote:It isn't the wind speed that increases exponentially, it's the force and damage caused by those winds.

The force of the wind upon an object in its path increases at roughly the square of the increase in speed. So if the winds are at 100 knots (115 mph) right now, and if they increase to 120 knots (138 mph), then the force difference is 120/100 squared, or 1.44. The increase over 1 is the increase in force, so if the wind increases to category 4 at 120 knots, that will increase the force by 44% over 115 mph winds.

Not something to laugh about.

How dare you get on this board and use this "math" and "logic" and "smarts" ? :lol:

#11 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 2:29 pm

I edited the heading of this thread to include COULD BECOME the same words as what the NHC said at the 11 AM advisory.

#12 Postby **dhweather** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 2:31 pm

INSANITY! Luis, why are you using the facts? GOOD LORD MAN, GET WITH THE SPECULATION!!! :lol:

I sure hope people aren't sitting around going "uh, it wobbled, I'm not getting to a shelter".

soonertwister · #13 Postby **soonertwister** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 2:34 pm

Since I guess I'm being a smarty-pants, I should also bring this up, because it's very pertinent.

If you are living in a densely populated area that is hit with category 4 hurricane winds, even if you have done everything possible to protect your well-constructed home, you can still suffer major or catastrophic structural damage due to the impact force of objects flying in the wind. If someone else's roof is ripped off and crashes into your home at over 100 miles per hour, I guarantee it's going to go through your roof or walls. Once that happens, what happens next is either blind luck or unfortunate circumstance.

I wish I didn't have to adopt such a negative tone with this post, but a category 4 hurricane is way worse than anybody would ever want to see. What seems impossible can happen in those storms, including to you, if you are in the path of those winds.

DoctorHurricane2003 · #14 Postby **DoctorHurricane2003** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 2:36 pm

inotherwords-

I think the post title is reflective enough

"Could Become a Category 4 at Landfall" is exactly what the NHC said

He or the NHC did not say "Will"

Also, could is a synonym for may.

:roll:

#15 Postby **dhweather** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 2:37 pm

soonertwister wrote:Since I guess I'm being a smarty-pants, I should also bring this up, because it's very pertinent.

If you are living in a densely populated area that is hit with category 4 hurricane winds, even if you have done everything possible to protect your well-constructed home, you can still suffer major or catastrophic structural damage due to the impact force of objects flying in the wind. If someone else's roof is ripped off and crashes into your home at over 100 miles per hour, I guarantee it's going to go through your roof or walls. Once that happens, what happens next is either blind luck or unfortunate circumstance.

I wish I didn't have to adopt such a negative tone with this post, but a category 4 hurricane is way worse than anybody would ever want to see. What seems impossible can happen in those storms, including to you, if you are in the path of those winds.

Gee, I wish some of the foks more worried about a jog or wobble would pay more attention to this instead of wild speculation and guesstimates.

Dear Florida - There's a major hurricane headed to your East Coast, and there are warnings all over the place for it. Thank God if it misses you.

inotherwords · #16 Postby **inotherwords** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 2:39 pm

DoctorHurricane2003. this is a MODIFIED head you are commenting on. The one I was objecting to stated only "CATEGORY 4 AT LANDFALL." Cycloneye changed the headline to include "Could Be a," which was very considerate. It's now accurate at least as far as the most recent NHC forecast.

DoctorHurricane2003 · #17 Postby **DoctorHurricane2003** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 2:40 pm

I apologize....USUALLY it says at the bottom of the post "This post was edited" if the topic/body was changed....

Don't understand why it doesn't even if Luis edited it.

Hurricane Cheese · #18 Postby **Hurricane Cheese** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 2:48 pm

Keep this in mind people...

Jeanne has GUSTS to Category 4 strength. Something to take very very seriously....

inotherwords · #19 Postby **inotherwords** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 2:49 pm

I think you have to edit a post twice to get the "edited 1 time" line to show up below. At least that's been my experience.

Also above, I actually did know and mean to say that the damage increased exponentially with increases in speed, not that wind speed increases exponentially (duh!). By the time I realized that I'd mistyped what I really meant, I could no longer edit the post. Thanks for those who clarified this. I think it's a really important fact about hurricanes that a lot of people aren't aware of.

Possum Trot · #20 Postby **Possum Trot** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 2:51 pm

A distinction without a difference?

may: Used to indicate a certain measure of likelihood or possibility.

can: [Past tense "could"] Used to indicate probability or possibility under the specified circumstances.

From http://dictionary.reference.com/

COULD BECOME A CAT 4 AT LANDFALL

COULD BECOME A CAT 4 AT LANDFALL

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