Jeanne seems to be weakening

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JTD
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Jeanne seems to be weakening

#1 Postby JTD » Sat Sep 25, 2004 4:09 pm

Based on the eyewall being open to the NE and flt level winds down 15 kts from 113 to 98, I think Jeanne is in quite a bit of trouble right now and in a weakening phase.

What do you think?
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Foladar

#2 Postby Foladar » Sat Sep 25, 2004 4:13 pm

No, simply no.
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logybogy

#3 Postby logybogy » Sat Sep 25, 2004 4:15 pm

no way, look at the latest radar.

She's starting to wrap up big time on the east side. Also eye is almost a perfect circle now.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... kmlb.shtml
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btsgmdad
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#4 Postby btsgmdad » Sat Sep 25, 2004 4:15 pm

Unlikely, that 98kt reading was in a weaker part of the storm. Plus the more recent vortex confirms the 950MB reading and the higher winds.
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DoctorHurricane2003

#5 Postby DoctorHurricane2003 » Sat Sep 25, 2004 4:16 pm

1) She is reorganizing...there will probably be a pre-landfall blow-up.

2) The recon JUST got out there...you have to wait for them to sample ALL of the circulation before you can be sure. The NOAA recon will stay in the NW QUAD for a while...then move to another QUAD.
Last edited by DoctorHurricane2003 on Sat Sep 25, 2004 4:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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djtexillini
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#6 Postby djtexillini » Sat Sep 25, 2004 4:17 pm

Well they found higher recently...a little closer to justifying the 115mph advisory.

As for weakening? Doubtful....more like levelling off. She hasnt been able to close off an eyewall and that has definitely prevent rapid intensification and time is running out.

Cloudtops are again warming a little. I think she will maintain 110-115mph up to landfall.
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Scorpion

#7 Postby Scorpion » Sat Sep 25, 2004 4:17 pm

Definitely not. I expect more strengthening and possible 125-135 at landfall with the Gulf Stream.
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JTD
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#8 Postby JTD » Sat Sep 25, 2004 4:18 pm

Foladar wrote:No, simply no.


Very informative.

OK...I stand corrected. I don't have DSL or cable so I can't load the sat loops.
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Tri-State_1925
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#9 Postby Tri-State_1925 » Sat Sep 25, 2004 4:19 pm

There is no doubt from what I'm seeing on radar and sat that this storm has been strengthening over the past couple hours.
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#10 Postby raynpa » Sat Sep 25, 2004 4:20 pm

If you are in the projected path, do not think this storm is weakening.....do what it takes to protect life and property!!!!!!!!
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#11 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Sep 25, 2004 4:27 pm

I think she right now is looking better than ever, and some intensification is still very possible.
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djtexillini
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#12 Postby djtexillini » Sat Sep 25, 2004 4:34 pm

Still cant close off the eye....openings rotating around...now open on south side. Maintaining intensity.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn/t ... N-782W.jpg
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