new vortex

[Derek Ortt]

still has a position south of the NHC position, and has an extra pressure of 950mb. The real pressure may be a mb or 2 higher

[fci]

People all over the board here doubt the 27.1 and Vero Beach landfall.
Why would Avila state something wrong?
What do you think?

[Foladar]

Recon says 26.9N - and NHC says 27.1N ?? Fill us in Derek?

[Guest]

Whats recon good for then if they dont use the data that is given by them.

[HurricaneQueen]

I was wondering the same thing. Recon at lower latitude than NHC. What do they know that recon doesn't? The former is based on real time empirical data.

[oviedofan]

Whats the differnce in distance with a .2 erro in latitude?

[Wnghs2007]

The Recon was taken AFTER THE 5 PM NHC was ISSUED. And was further south. And my god its avila anyway. Has he ever varyied from the GFDL and trying to get it to verify. LOL j/k

[Foladar]

Too much :|

[DoctorHurricane2003]

14 Miles...or about the difference of Stuart receiving 125 MPH winds and Port St. Lucie receiving 125 MPH......or the eye........etc.

[Guest]

Whats the differnce in distance with a .2 erro in latitude?

12-15 miles I believe.

[ColinD]

The Recon was taken AFTER THE 5 PM NHC was ISSUED. And was further south. And my god its avila anyway. Has he ever varyied from the GFDL and trying to get it to verify. LOL j/k

Recon was taken at 3:56 pm. Funny Avila stuff.

[Guest]

Norcross just said he doubts the 27.1 position

[tallywx]

This is IRRESPONSIBLE of Avila. Watching live WPBF West Palm Beach right now, and weatherman is making a huge deal of Avila/NHC shifting the track to the north. "For those in Martin County and Palm Beach, the core of the hurricane will not affect this area. We're looking at Stuart north to Melbourne." Great...letting people off the hook, people who could very well experience the da*n core.

[Foladar]

Norcross just said he doubts the 27.1 position

Chnl 6 just said it's moving north, so I don't doubt it..

[oviedofan]

All of the stations here in Orlando saying the same thing about the Vero beach hit and the 27.1 Latitude and getting it exclusively from NHC. Are we sure the latest recon came in after Avila's forecast?

[Derek Ortt]

here's a little secret that you all didnt know.

the advisory position, it actually the 3-hour FORECAST position from the official fix at synoptic time

[ColinD]

here's a little secret that you all didnt know.

the advisory position, it actually the 3-hour FORECAST position from the official fix at synoptic time

Wow

[oviedofan]

here's a little secret that you all didnt know.

the advisory position, it actually the 3-hour FORECAST position from the official fix at synoptic time

To an uneducated weather person, what does that mean?:)

[Greg]

I would suspect it takes 30-60 minutes to draw the graphics, type up the various reports, proofread and approve the released data. To syncronize all this, they would have to use data that is at least 1 hour old.

[wjs3]

here's a little secret that you all didnt know.

the advisory position, it actually the 3-hour FORECAST position from the official fix at synoptic time

Derek:

how's that possible? If that was the case, wouldn't the NHC have the storm making landfall 3 hours before the eye is observed doing so by radar, on-shore observers, etc?

Doesn't that screw up landfall timing?