Avila strikes again - 5 p.m. predicts landfall at VERO BEACH

tallywx · #1 Postby **tallywx** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 3:38 pm

The storm is moving due west right now. The eyewall is only 69 miles offshore. Recon. shows it at 26.8N, my radar fix at 27.0N , and he places it at 27.1N. He predicts landfall at 27.7N, 80.6W. That's VERO BEACH. C'MON!!!

The storm would have to move at 295 degrees from its present location to achieve that.

calidoug · #2 Postby **calidoug** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 3:41 pm

Nope, it's moving N of due W.

Vero beach sounds just about right!

NorthGaWeather · #3 Postby **NorthGaWeather** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 3:45 pm

lol, its not north of due west. Last recon is south of 27 N.

djtexillini · #4 Postby **djtexillini** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 3:46 pm

And 290-295 is predicted. I guess thats the difference between having to forecast the future movement and drawing a straight line from current movement.

I predict the NHC will be very very close.

#5 Postby **THead** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 3:46 pm

yeah, now i think the apparent stall I was seeing was just a pre-cursor to a little bounce to the north. I really need to step away from the computer for a few........
:eek:

tallywx · #6 Postby **tallywx** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 3:46 pm

Calidoug, at 1:50 p.m., the storm was at 26 DEG 51 MIN N. At 3:56 p.m., the storm was at 26 DEG 51 MIN N. Two hours with no north movement at all. Not a single iota.

Scorpion · #7 Postby **Scorpion** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 3:47 pm

I agree. I am more in line with the center coming between Jupiter and Fort Pierce, such as Stuart.

Guest · #8 Postby **Guest** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 3:47 pm

NorthGaWeather wrote:lol, its not north of due west. Last recon is south of 27 N.

It looks west to me to.

calidoug has always been the north outlier.

tw861 · #9 Postby **tw861** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 3:59 pm

calidoug wrote:Nope, it's moving N of due W.

Vero beach sounds just about right!

Dude you never give up do ya. It's probably moving a little north of due west but not much, certainly not the WNW movement it would take to make the NHC track. Just like Ivan not getting west of Lake Charles huh?

golter · #10 Postby **golter** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 4:38 pm

tw861 wrote:
calidoug wrote:Nope, it's moving N of due W.

Vero beach sounds just about right!

Dude you never give up do ya. It's probably moving a little north of due west but not much, certainly not the WNW movement it would take to make the NHC track. Just like Ivan not getting west of Lake Charles huh?

That was me that said it would not get west of Lake Charles not Calidoug. And I'll repeat my prediction, Jeanne will not get west of LAke Charles.

huricanwatcher · #11 Postby **huricanwatcher** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 4:41 pm

north turn about to happen

Anonymous · #12 Postby **Anonymous** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 4:55 pm

Avila strikes again....LOL...good one

I don't understand it either, I'm not the sharpest knife in the drawer and I can see it moving about due west from the Melbourne radar. Yeah it is a slight north but hey thats the law of physics, the storm is headed west at 1745.
I think Avila must be related to Dr. Lyons. I just don't see a landfall that far north, I'm still seeing a Palm Beach to Ft. Pierce.

I'm not suggesting that the turn won't happen within range as predicted at some point later but the question still at hand is when will the storm find a weakness in the ridge or will the ridge relax within the decreasing time limits. Jeanne is moving and grooving.

Maybe it will pull the Ivan right before landfall and veer off to the NW (only the Ivan I pulled aNE).

Take Care,
Mike

Ivanova · #13 Postby **Ivanova** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 4:57 pm

tallywx wrote:

That's VERO BEACH. C'MON!!!

In what county is Vero Beach ??

:?:

beachsideclyde · #14 Postby **beachsideclyde** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 5:10 pm

indian river

Sanibel · #15 Postby **Sanibel** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 5:11 pm

Vero Beach is in Indian River County.

I believe a wobble has just placed the center at 27.1

LakeToho · #16 Postby **LakeToho** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 5:22 pm

This storm is obtaining a slightly more northerly component. Its already North of Palm Beach County. So doesnt look like Palm Beach will verify. Looks to me like Ft Pierce or Stuart.

Sanibel · #17 Postby **Sanibel** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 5:26 pm

Yes, my recurve call is verifying.

The storm is getting a sharper eye!

Have to go clear my deck. Back later...

NorthGaWeather · #18 Postby **NorthGaWeather** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 5:29 pm

lol, it may verify in about 24 hrs but it isn't doing so now.

#19 Postby **NativeFloridaGirl** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 5:33 pm

Sanibel, if it's "recurving" away from the east coast as you say then why would you bother clearing your deck? If you don't think it's going to impact us on the east coast then it certainly would not be a concern of yours.

Sanibel · #20 Postby **Sanibel** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 5:34 pm

Some were attacking my post about the storm recurving. The motion of the last several hours has been north of west with a recent wobble above 27.1 Now Avila predicts a near Vero Beach landfall.

I think it's obvious at this point...

Avila strikes again - 5 p.m. predicts landfall at VERO BEACH

Avila strikes again - 5 p.m. predicts landfall at VERO BEACH

Re: Avila strikes again - 5 p.m. predicts landfall at VERO B

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