is right, the Advisory position IS (and always has been) a forecast position from the synoptic fix position. To determine this, they use the movement observed to extrapolate forward to the advisory position. Once the storm comes into radar range they will then issue position updates based upon the radar data. The call for actual landfall is based upon realtime data. Forecast landfall time is based upon the forecast derived from the real fix and movement. It's important to note that landfall is for the CENTER of the eye and not the eyewall. The initial landfall of the outer edge of the eyewall for a storm moving 10mph directly onshore with a 20 mile diameter eye and an eyewall 10 miles wide will occur 2 hours before the center of the storm makes landfall. It is this time that people should focus on and not the actual landfall time because that's when you start getting beat up really badly.
Steve
new vortex
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