Convection weakening, warming. Dry air troubles?

calidoug · #1 Postby **calidoug** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 5:34 pm

Further intensification looks unlikely at this point.

That's a bit of good news...

NorthGaWeather · #2 Postby **NorthGaWeather** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 5:37 pm

She looks the best she has all day structure wise.

djtexillini · #3 Postby **djtexillini** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 5:38 pm

Probably not. I think the dry air environment saved Florida from a ridiculously strong storm this time around.

#4 Postby **Pebbles** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 5:38 pm

Personally...think your jumping the gun. Don't mean that in a mean way...just different points of view. *huggers* My reasoning is the eye actually looks much more symetrical than it had for the past few hours... think we may see a burst of intensification soon. We shall see how it pans out.

logybogy · #5 Postby **logybogy** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 5:38 pm

That sat image is an hour old.

She looks spectacular on radar.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... kmlb.shtml

Scorpion · #6 Postby **Scorpion** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 5:39 pm

I dont see weakening. Still looks as good as ever. The winds still havent responded to the pressure, they are probably doing it soon. The visible looks incredible, almost Ivan like. Overall, this looks alot stronger than it is. Remember, this is a 115 mph storm, and is not supposed to be perfect.

Three Blind Mice · #7 Postby **Three Blind Mice** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 5:43 pm

She's a stunner!! Anybody looked at the tides for tonight?? Lots of things will make this storm. Take a look at the moon tonight...

calidoug · #8 Postby **calidoug** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 5:46 pm

LOL! You can't tell from radar!

And the image is less than 30 minutes old.

Looked much better this morning before the bahamas landfall.

Dry air did save florida from a much stronger storm.

Western core is over the gulf stream right now, but the convection is weakening instead of strengthening.

Surge will be worse than Frances due to faster storm speed (14mph), with similar to slightly stronger wind speed, and perhaps a more intact eye-wall, although if this weakening/drying trend continues, the eye may lose some integrity over the next few hours.

calidoug · #9 Postby **calidoug** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 5:47 pm

Scorpion, if you don't see weakening, you need to watch the IR loop:

See the colors fading from red to orange to yellow?

That's the convection warming, meaning it is weakening.

Here:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Scorpion · #10 Postby **Scorpion** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 5:48 pm

The eye is much better defined than it was this morning.

Three Blind Mice · #11 Postby **Three Blind Mice** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 5:49 pm

http://tbone.biol.sc.edu/tide/tideshow. ... 2C+Florida

calidoug · #12 Postby **calidoug** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 5:50 pm

Recon shows the pressure UP 1mb to 951 from 950.

I suspect that will continue up.

Winds lag pressure which lags convection/organization.

djtexillini · #13 Postby **djtexillini** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 5:50 pm

I would hate to think that anyone posting valid observations would be labeled a troll just because they arent cheering the storm to higher strength.

The warmer cloudtops is a valid observation. As is the seemingly better defined eye. I wouldnt call either of those posters a troll.

calidoug · #14 Postby **calidoug** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 5:51 pm

Scorpion, did you see the sat pics shortly after the eclipse ended, very early this morning?

djtexillini · #15 Postby **djtexillini** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 5:55 pm

Heres an example of dougs point:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn/t ... N-770W.jpg

The tops have warmed considerably.

Scorpion · #16 Postby **Scorpion** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 5:55 pm

However, the overall structure is outstanding. The best I have ever seen it.

#17 Postby **MBismyPlayground** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 5:57 pm

Three Blind Mice wrote:She's a stunner!! Anybody looked at the tides for tonight?? Lots of things will make this storm. Take a look at the moon tonight...

A full moon coming. Darn, I should of known it!!!

Scorpion · #18 Postby **Scorpion** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 5:57 pm

Also, look at the stats for a second. A 115 mph storm!! 115!! Does the almost perfect organization look 115 to you?? If it had just more red, it would easily be 135 or more.

NorthGaWeather · #19 Postby **NorthGaWeather** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 5:58 pm

Cali ever hear of the convective minimal. Happens with tropical systems about this time.

djtexillini · #20 Postby **djtexillini** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 5:58 pm

Yes..the structure is nice. Overall I would say shes a little stronger than this morning but not in a strengthening phase right now. Should maintain 110-115mph to landfall.

Convection weakening, warming. Dry air troubles?

Convection weakening, warming. Dry air troubles?

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