Convection weakening, warming. Dry air troubles?

calidoug · #21 Postby **calidoug** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 6:01 pm

Ever hear of the "rising pressure = weakening" rule of thumb?

djtexillini · #22 Postby **djtexillini** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 6:01 pm

Yep Scorpion if she were stronger winds might be 135 right now....as it is she isnt and they are 110-115.

Scorpion · #23 Postby **Scorpion** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 6:01 pm

Yes, thats what im trying to say. Doug thinks this is WEAKENING. That is just not happening. It looks better than Ivan was at landfall. Infinitely better than Frances.

Scorpion · #24 Postby **Scorpion** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 6:03 pm

Doug, the pressure has been dropping all day, with no increase in winds. I dont think a 1 MB rise is weakening considering it has been dropping all day with no wind change.

NorthGaWeather · #25 Postby **NorthGaWeather** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 6:04 pm

calidoug wrote:Ever hear of the "rising pressure = weakening" rule of thumb?

1 MB doesn't suggest weakening its steady.

Eyes2theSkies · #26 Postby **Eyes2theSkies** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 6:05 pm

thats the best looking 115mph storm i have seen in a while

Anonymous · #27 Postby **Anonymous** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 6:05 pm

LOL.
Youve been preaching this 'dry air' crap for two days.

Scorpion · #28 Postby **Scorpion** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 6:06 pm

Best looking 115 mph storm period.

#29 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 6:08 pm

Yeah, we are in the convective minima over water...I think that is the best explanation, as the instability over the ocean is at it's lowest right now. In about 8-12 hours, we will be at the convective max. Luckily, by that time Jeanne should be onshore, or at least most of her will be, unless she slows or hugs the coast.

soonertwister · #30 Postby **soonertwister** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 6:08 pm

Don't forget that the radar is not representative of a tropical storm. Radar is designed for the most likely severe weather, not hurricanes. Just because it looks a little less "severe" on radar doesn't begin to tell the story. Jeanne is stacked with power and moisture WAY up into the sky, and the radar just doesn't reflect that at all.

djtexillini · #31 Postby **djtexillini** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 6:15 pm

With all signs pointing to rapid intensification except for the dry air.....I wouldnt call the "dry air" crap. It has definitely prevented a cat4/5 storm I think....and the NHC has made several mentions of it.

At each seemingly rapid intensification cycle dry air has seemed to band in disrupting the core. And the inner core has never been able to maintain a closed eye for any length of time.

I think this is the only explanation to why we are looking at a min cat 3 storm right now.

Anonymous · #32 Postby **Anonymous** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 6:18 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Do you see Jeanne throwing all of that dry air out of the way?

Scorpion · #33 Postby **Scorpion** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 6:20 pm

Wow, dry air was really a life saver this year. It drastically weakend Frances, Ivan, and prevented Jeanne from becoming really bad.

djtexillini · #34 Postby **djtexillini** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 6:23 pm

I think that WV loops points out the dry air point perfectly. Yes...she is able to regenerate and maintain convection for a little while; however, as seen on the sw side of the storm dry air causes the convection to not last for more than a few hours. This doesnt allow her to wrap up and intensify significantly.

These cycles have gone on for a couple days now.

yoda · #35 Postby **yoda** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 6:23 pm

djtexillini wrote:With all signs pointing to rapid intensification except for the dry air.....I wouldnt call the "dry air" crap. It has definitely prevented a cat4/5 storm I think....and the NHC has made several mentions of it.

At each seemingly rapid intensification cycle dry air has seemed to band in disrupting the core. And the inner core has never been able to maintain a closed eye for any length of time.

I think this is the only explanation to why we are looking at a min cat 3 storm right now.

Also, Jeanne is having to deal with a bit of upper level wind shear...

#36 Postby **simplykristi** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 6:24 pm

I don't think that some people in this thread get it... Jeanne is a cat3 hurricane. A cat3 is a major hurricane.. I bet she maintains the 115 MPH winds. This is serious, people.

Kristi

djtexillini · #37 Postby **djtexillini** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 6:26 pm

Kristi...I havent seen anyone in this thread make mention of a cat 3 not being a major hurricane. This is a technical discussion about Jeanne.

#38 Postby **tronbunny** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 6:26 pm

I noticed that since 20:55Z to 22:20Z
that the vortex temps are slightly lower.
20:55
I. 17 C/ 3048 M
J. 18 C/ 3048 M
22:20
I. 16 C/ 3056 M
J. 17 C/ 3059 M

calidoug · #39 Postby **calidoug** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 6:35 pm

Yup, continued weakening.

And Houstoner, I hate to be the one to clue you in to this, but, just because the outflow at higher levels makes the WV look "moist" doesn't mean the dry air at lower levels has been "pushed" out of the way.

To the contrary, it has been drawn into the storm.

super dry air UNDER slightly moist air shows up as "moist" on the WV pic.

Don't be misled in the future.

Anonymous · #40 Postby **Anonymous** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 6:37 pm

Look at a radar picture and find out the real reason for a leveling off in pressure... Ill see if you can spot it.

Convection weakening, warming. Dry air troubles?

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