MLB radar..Ft Pierce and WPB looking like goalposts

[gulfcoaster53]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... kmlb.shtml

Avila is smarter than me, but what the heck is he looking at that suggests the a move to what is almost NW from here??

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... g&itype=wv

[schmita]

I agree.
At the 5PM Brian Norcross implied he didn't really believe it either. He said for a Vero Beach hit, Jeanne would have to make a very dramatic turn north.

He also implied that he didn't buy the "north" jog. He drew a line through the center of the eye and said, "this is 27". He looped the image and the eye stayed true.

I think Derek is right on this. As Jeanne clears GBI I think she will dip a tenth or two.

Time will tell.........

[djtexillini]

Anybody think that Avila came up with this forecast by himself? He was the author but do you really think there wasnt collaboration from many many scientists?

I think he will be a tad north but not very far...definitely not as far as the conspiracy theorists here seem to think.

Persistence is one method of forecasting but Im not sure its the correct one all the time.

[Anonymous]

No I don't think he came up with by himself, no one in the goverment can do anything without asking someone else, or in most cases 10 or so other people. I think they do a good job and rely heavily on the computer models maybe many we don't have acess to.
But the thing that is different is that this storm can clearly be viewed on local NWS radar it isn't 1,200 miles in the middle of the Ocean. You have to use your eyes and some form of measuring tools along with the recon tools to see where the storm is going, you don't have to wait for 1/2 hr updates through the GOES satellite. I am sure they are using this to, but NHC is offering nothing on the discussion as to the "why this will occur" perhaps that isn't the job at hand now? The local statments however do firmly state that they are not certain of what areas will get the damaging winds from the storm so be prepared.
Luckily the local weather jocks in Tampa are certain and read the NHC bulletins as if they are the bible. So that totally deminshes what the local hurricane statments are saying as more was the goofs on TV than read the boring NHC bulletins.

The storm is moving currently on the Melbourne radar between the words Fort Pierce and West Palm Beach, with a ever so slight tweak to the north its solidly in between these words and its going to have to turn like the USS Poseidon tried to do to avoid that tsunami to hit Vero Beach,...oh yeah the Poseidon couldn't make that turn either thus the reason for the movie the Poseidon adventure.

Take Care,
Mike

Mike

[LakeToho]

Max Mayfield was just on television feels Ft Pierce to Vero Beach for Landfall. They are sticking to the NW Turn..