Why is Miami almost always lucky?

[hurricanespotter]

Even during Andrew, Miami was spared the worst of the storm. The last time Miami got a real direct impact must have been like 40 years ago. I saw on a hurricane probability chart that Miami could expect a tropical system every 3 to 5 years. Why isn't this happening?

I am just saying this because some people in Miami think there is a protective shield around them. I called one of my friends down in miami and he told me that one of the local meteorologists (Roland Steadham) was laughing and smiling while saying, "Miami will be spared again. Jeanne will target the coast north of miami-dade and broward".

I have lost respect for Steadham. He laughs even though central florida will face serious consequences! Shame on him! I hope he experiences one for himself and understands that miami is just as prone to hurricanes.

[Foladar]

This time, there was..atleast two missed us, maybe three..we're very lucky.

[AussieMark]

last hurricane to hit Miami head on would have to be

Cleo in 1964 (Category 2)

last Major to Hit Miami King in 1950 (Category 3)

[huricanwatcher]

count your blessings!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Tri-State_1925]

Maybe that's one of the reasons why Miami is where it is in the first place. Then again, I don't know the history of Miami.

Anyway, their luck will likely run out one of these years...and it's not going to be pretty.

[Patrick99]

I don't know, but Miami has not taken the worst of a storm in a long, long time. I would say Andrew - Homestead and Florida City get all the attention with Andrew, but honestly, Miami was also hit quite hard with legitimate major hurricane conditions. Maybe not so much storm surge - but there was plenty of wind damage in Miami. Of course, the core of Andrew did not really "hit" Miami, but it hit Dade County - close enough. If Andrew had been a bigger storm, it would have been different.

Roland Steadhamn is probably the worst weatherman in the area. He was the one that originally brushed off Jeanne completely, saying it would turn north and northeast before it made its cyclonic loop.

[AussieMark]

true.

before this year we were saying the Florida Peninsula is overdue for a Major Hurricane strike.

West Coast of Florida is overdue for a major Hurricane strike.

u can't be lucky all the time.

[SouthernWx]

There is no magic shield protecting Miami...nor Fort Lauderdale. Tonight they are once again, very fortunate.

Major hurricanes made direct hits on downtown Miami and Miami Beach in August 1888, October 1906, September 1926, September 1945, and October 1950. Also, the great September 1947 cat-4 hurricane produced 110-120 mph gusts from the west in downtown Miami, even though landfall occurred in Broward and southern Palm Beach counties.

Fort Lauderdale was hit directly by major hurricanes in September 1926, September 1928, September 1933, September 1947, September 1949, and October 1950 ("King" produced 150 mph gusts in downtown Miami, and 138 mph gusts in Fort Lauderdale).

Why has it been over half-century since a major hurricane made a direct hit on Miami or Fort Lauderdale? Just sheer good luck. Sooner or later, a severe hurricane will strike the major cities again...it's only a matter of time.

[inotherwords]

West Coast of Florida is overdue for a major Hurricane strike.

Charley was West Coast. I'd say we've had ours for a while.

[Ripopgodazippa]

Although its been storms aplenty this year, its not so easy to "put the needle on the record." Meaning... Things have to line up just right to put the eye of the storm right on a certain place.

[BigO]

Recent research has shown that the concrete and asphault surfaces in large cities lead to a greater concentration of heat on the surfaces that leads to a dome of high pressure over them. Atlanta has been demonstrated to affect the weather to its east. I saw some show on Discovery digital that was talking about it awhile back.

I'm not an expert or anything, but if cities can affect storm systems like Atlanta, I don't find it inconceivable that they could have an effect on larger storms.

It certainly shouldn't lead anyone into a false sense of security.

[AussieMark]

West Coast of Florida is overdue for a major Hurricane strike.

Charley was West Coast. I'd say we've had ours for a while.

I was saying before this year we were saying that

[Seadog]

Because you non-Floridians don't realize that all of Dade County is considered to be "Miami". The vast majority of people in Dade county list Miami on their return address, including most of the victims of hurricane Andrew.
We are not lucky, we have had our fair share of hurricanes.

[MiaMom]

Even during Andrew, Miami was spared the worst of the storm. The last time Miami got a real direct impact must have been like 40 years ago. I saw on a hurricane probability chart that Miami could expect a tropical system every 3 to 5 years. Why isn't this happening?

I am just saying this because some people in Miami think there is a protective shield around them.

The city of Homestead IS a part of Miami-Dade County. Miami-Dade is comprised of incorporated and unincorporated areas - like Los Angeles - and includes Homestead. And there was significant damage well north of Homestead in Miami-Dade.

I don't know a SINGLE person who thinks Miami has a protective shield. Not one. We are ALL hanging on by our thumbnails, sweating out the advent of each storm, and fearing the next one. We all know it is a matter of time.

[Lockhart]

The reason Miami hasn't been hit directly with a big hurricane in decades is because the US coast is big and there just aren't that many hurricanes each year. Why would you expect a given city to be hit every few years? That would only happen if there were dozens and dozens of hurricanes every year.

So, you're looking at it the wrong way. It isn't that Miami is somehow being spared--it's that the coast is big and any given area is only hit on average once in quite a while.

[Florida_brit]

My Jensen Beach neighbour always boasted about how safe Martin County was and hasn't suffered a major hurricane since 1949....now look! We have had 2 major hurricanes in 3 weeks.....

I have heard that South Floirda sees more activity in October.....so don't count your chickens yet!

[KeyLargoDave]

Want to clear up something that sounds wrong to me in someone's first post above.

All of Miami-Dade county is not Miami. I've been in neighboring Monroe County since 1986, I don't think of Homestead, Cocnut Grove, Cutler Ridge, Hialeah, Miami Beach, and all the other places here as "Miami." Miami is an incorporated city, it has a definite boundary. Miami Beach is a separate city (and a barrier island). Andrew caused damage in Miami but more in other towns closer to the center. There was significant damage in Coconut Grove, just south of the city of Miami.

Of course, when people talk about "the Miami area" or say "I'm going to Miami," they might mean any of the above. Some people have "Miami" mailing addresses but may not be in the city of Miami.

When Andrew hit, Miami-Dade County was named Dade County. Or was it Metro-Dade County? I forget, it's been both. The name was changed to Miami-Dade County most recently. Mostly because of tourism, leaders wanted to associate the whole county with Miami.

[vbhoutex]

The reason Miami hasn't been hit directly with a big hurricane in decades is because the US coast is big and there just aren't that many hurricanes each year. Why would you expect a given city to be hit every few years? That would only happen if there were dozens and dozens of hurricanes every year.

So, you're looking at it the wrong way. It isn't that Miami is somehow being spared--it's that the coast is big and any given area is only hit on average once in quite a while.

Try and tell that to the people who just got their second landfall in a month!!! Just making a point, not arguing.

[x-y-no]

Want to clear up something that sounds wrong to me in someone's first post above.

All of Miami-Dade county is not Miami. I've been in neighboring Monroe County since 1986, I don't think of Homestead, Cocnut Grove, Cutler Ridge, Hialeah, Miami Beach, and all the other places here as "Miami." Miami is an incorporated city, it has a definite boundary. Miami Beach is a separate city (and a barrier island). Andrew caused damage in Miami but more in other towns closer to the center. There was significant damage in Coconut Grove, just south of the city of Miami.

Ummm ... Coconut Grove is in the City of Miami. In fact, City Hall is right next to Dinner Key Marina in the Grove (which was hit pretty darn hard by Andrew - a lot of my friends lost their boats in that storm).

[Guest]

Miami will get it again,maybe even this season.

If Orlando can get hurricane conditions 3 times in 1 season Miami can to.