Could Jeanne Go Into the GOM ??

Ivanova · #1 Postby **Ivanova** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 5:33 pm

What are the odds of Jeanne continuing WEST
across Florida... hitting Ft Myers... then heading
into the Gulf of Mexico and restrengthening ?!!

:eek:

WeatherNLU · #2 Postby **WeatherNLU** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 5:36 pm

I know this is not a popular opinion, and to be honest I didn't really think it was possible until now, but I think Jeanne might just make it into the GOM. I mean the NHC track continues to make the curve further and further west into the state of FL and at this point it wouldn't take much of a nudge to have it come out in the Gulf, on a track similar to Frances. It's certainly showing no sign of letting up on it's westerly course and just like with Frances and some point you have to realize that it's just not happening (the turn).

It will surely be interesting to watch.

ColdFront77 · #3 Postby **ColdFront77** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 5:39 pm

Official forecast track isn't calling for the turn this soon.

#4 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 5:44 pm

The strength of the ridge and the amplitude of the troughs/upper lows over the CONUS/GOM lead me to believe the westernmost portion of this storm will come very close to the western coast of FL. There will no doubt be some interesting interactions once the highest winds get over the land surface, but the synoptic setup is favorable for continued westward motion. Jeanne will probably skirt the coast from ~Tampa to the Big Bend, then head through GA and SC as it finally recurves.

Huckster · #5 Postby **Huckster** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 5:50 pm

WeatherNLU wrote:I know this is not a popular opinion, and to be honest I didn't really think it was possible until now, but I think Jeanne might just make it into the GOM.

You're right about the unpopularity of that idea, of it going into the Gulf. It seems like there was quite a bit of resistence against Frances getting into the Gulf too. I'm with you on this one. I really didn't think Jeanne would go into the Gulf, but it's looking like a real possibility. In the grand scheme of things, it's not really that far from the Gulf now, not like 1000 miles or anything. It would not take much of an error in the official track to bring it into the Gulf. As far as you and I are concerned in LA, it won't make much of a difference in our weather either way, but for people in the eastern panhandle, around Tallahassee and farther east especially, the difference between the storm just barely creeping into the Gulf or staying over land could be significant. Water temps in the NE Gulf are rather cool as of now with all the activity there the last few weeks, but I think cool water is better for a hurricane to maintain its intensity and structure rather than no water at all. Got a met friend in Tallahassee. I'm sure he's watching it like a hawk now.

#6 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 5:53 pm

The hurricane models all take Jeanne over the Gulf...although barely.

yoda · #7 Postby **yoda** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 5:59 pm

PurdueWx80 wrote:The hurricane models all take Jeanne over the Gulf...although barely.

NHC track = :eek:

Ivanova · #8 Postby **Ivanova** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 6:01 pm

What about that black dotted line that goes past
the oil rigs of LA into Galveston :eek:

Is that the direction of hurricane Jeanne on its
present course ??

:?:

yoda · #9 Postby **yoda** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 6:02 pm

Ivanova wrote:What about that black dotted line that goes past
the oil rigs of LA into Galveston

Is that the direction of hurricane Jeanne on its
present course ??

That line is not a model line. It is an extrap line, which shows that IF Jeanne were to move WNW forever... it would follow that line.

#10 Postby **Pebbles** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 6:06 pm

While I don't really think she will go into the GOM I wouldn't say it's totally out of the picture either. Will give it a 20% ....this isn't a scientific number ..just a guess off the top of my head after looking at models and sat loops.

Foladar · #11 Postby **Foladar** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 6:07 pm

The turn has begun, going WNW...so no don't expect it into the gulf

Wnghs2007 · #12 Postby **Wnghs2007** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 6:09 pm

Will the Atlanta, Gainseville, Athens area of Georgia get anything from Jeanne. Like some light wind???? A Sprinkle????? ANYTHING????????? :eek:

yoda · #13 Postby **yoda** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 6:09 pm

Wnghs2007 wrote:Will the Atlanta, Gainseville, Athens area of Georgia get anything from Jeanne. Like some light wind???? A Sprinkle????? ANYTHING?????????

Maybe a few showers....

Wnghs2007 · #14 Postby **Wnghs2007** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 6:11 pm

Foladar wrote:The turn has begun, going WNW...so no don't expect it into the gulf

Not going West north west. No turn has begun yet. It is going 270 to 272 right now and northing more and nothing less. So it might still get in the Gulf. Peoples right or left bias shows over time. LOL J/K

Wnghs2007 · #15 Postby **Wnghs2007** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 6:12 pm

yoda wrote:
Wnghs2007 wrote:Will the Atlanta, Gainseville, Athens area of Georgia get anything from Jeanne. Like some light wind???? A Sprinkle????? ANYTHING?????????

Maybe a few showers....

Yoda has joined the dark side I see. Use the force Yoda, Use the force. It shall save you from defeat. Find the good side you can. :lol:

yoda · #16 Postby **yoda** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 6:18 pm

Wnghs2007 wrote:
yoda wrote:
Wnghs2007 wrote:Will the Atlanta, Gainseville, Athens area of Georgia get anything from Jeanne. Like some light wind???? A Sprinkle????? ANYTHING?????????

Maybe a few showers....

Yoda has joined the dark side I see. Use the force Yoda, Use the force. It shall save you from defeat. Find the good side you can.

Um, no.... I am always on the light side of the Force. I don't understand your post...

See the trop models above.

cape_escape · #17 Postby **cape_escape** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 7:35 pm

We are out of the cone here in the Ft Myers area, is there a chance of being put back in it again if Jeanne keeps moving so westerly?

floodprone · #18 Postby **floodprone** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 7:42 pm

Just keep this dern thing outta Western North Carolina...The further West it goes the more nervous I become...

Twister29 · #19 Postby **Twister29** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 7:46 pm

I would be floored if Jeanne, ended up in the gulf. I think it's more on the line of 5% that it lands in the gulf. Once again the entire state of florida are in my prayers. It seems like i say this every 2 weeks.

arlwx · #20 Postby **arlwx** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 7:50 pm

NO! NOT THE GDFL!

((stockpile water now, avoid the rush)) ((ha.ha.))

Could Jeanne Go Into the GOM ??

Could Jeanne Go Into the GOM ??

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