When Will This Phantom NW Turn Occur?

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tropicstorm
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When Will This Phantom NW Turn Occur?

#1 Postby tropicstorm » Sat Sep 25, 2004 8:02 pm

Yes, I've seen the official forecast tracks continuing to push more west. This must be one brute ridge. Any sign of the western edge of the high weakening soon? Also, what about this approaching trough in the GOM - wasn't it supposed to encroach a bit & help push Jeanne a bit more east? I'm somewhat surprised with such an enduring westerly track. Comments please.
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#2 Postby MGC » Sat Sep 25, 2004 8:07 pm

Good question! Wish I knew. The NHC has had trouble with hurricanes (other than Charley) moving futher west than anticipated this season.....MGC
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NC George
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#3 Postby NC George » Sat Sep 25, 2004 8:32 pm

I have wondered about this very subject this year. Seems to me in previous years the NHC used to have a distinct bias to the S or W of actual landfall. Maybe they have adjusted the models to the point that they now have gone too far the other way, and now predict a strike N or E of actual landfall.
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rbaker

#4 Postby rbaker » Sat Sep 25, 2004 8:35 pm

the have been relying on the gfdl and gfs too much this year, which have been constistanly anlayzing the ridges this year.
Jeanne has been no exception as we have seen with the model shifts to the left.
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caneman

#5 Postby caneman » Sat Sep 25, 2004 8:37 pm

rbaker wrote:the have been relying on the gfdl and gfs too much this year, which have been constistanly anlayzing the ridges this year.
Jeanne has been no exception as we have seen with the model shifts to the left.


I agree and IT IS DRIVING ME NUTS! Why not go with the models that performed well on the last couple of storms. IMHO- it doesn't reflect well on them.
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