is JEANNE getting closer tp Tampa??

[Noah]

number 4 hurricane this summer on florida.. is this one coming to tampa? im really scared

[dhweather]

Well, the odds are increasing at about 14 miles per hour. The north turn has yet to develop.

[yoda]

number 4 hurricane this summer on florida.. is this one coming to tampa? im really scared

It wil be coming close.....

Forecast from NWS suggests this:

HILLSBOROUGH-MANATEE-PINELLAS-SARASOTA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRADENTON...BRANDON...TAMPA...CLEARWATER...
ST. PETERSBURG...SARASOTA...VENICE
435 PM EDT SAT SEP 25 2004

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...
...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. BECOMING VERY WINDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS THEN
RAIN LIKELY AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE
MID 70S. NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH...BECOMING NORTHWEST AND INCREASING
TO 40 TO 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE
OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY...RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.
NORTHWEST WINDS 40 TO 55 MPH WITH GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE BECOMING
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN 80 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. RAIN LIKELY AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDY. LOWS IN THE MID 70S. WEST WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH DECREASING TO 20 TO 30 MPH AFTER
MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT.
.MONDAY...BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. BREEZY. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. WEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH
DECREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN
50 PERCENT.

Anything else you need wxbuddy?

[tronbunny]

It WILL make a bit of a mess there.
It still looks as if you'll be on the west side as it moves NW.
As a "veteran" now, I don't think you should be scared, just alert and aware as if you'll get a long strong afternoon summer storm.

[Brent]

Probably will be a lot like Frances...

[Bellarose]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but won't the winds be almost double of Francis? And faster moving (I HOPE!!) Just trying to get an idea of what to expect here in Tampa.

Bella

[tronbunny]

Bella, you're not completely wrong, but not double.
The faster moving may be a plus.
I think you'll be fine and even with the shift west..Tampa, itself will be on the west side after many miles of land friction.
Don't get me wrong..I don't think anyone should be out driving to the corner store or sightseeing.

[inotherwords]

NHC projects it will be TS strength as it exits into the Gulf (or comes close to doing so) about 50 or 60 mi north of Tampa. If that turns out to be the case, then the idea that winds will be a lot like Frances is probably pretty true. TS strength, occasional higher gusts. Our local mets are saying that for us down here it will be more a wind than a rain storm, with TS winds.

[gulfcoaster53]

As long as the damn thing continues to hug that 27.1 lat line, which it has since 5 PM, we're in the crosshairs. Just have to hope that it turns soon or loses a lot of punch crossing the state. Waiting for the 9 PM position update, but radar doesn't show any evidence of a meaningful change in the course yet. Local mets are forecasting 40-50 mph tomorrow AM, but that's based on a turn to the NW almost immediately after landfall. Hope they're right, if so looking like 50-60 in TPA. Guess we'll all find out together when the sun comes up. Stay safe all on the Suncoast!

[Cookiely]

The Sheriff's dept. didn't come around for Frances, but this evening they about scared me to death with the PA for a mobile home evacuation order. I have only seen one home evacuated in the neighborhood. The rest are staying in their mobile homes.

[Noah]

thanks all for replying and your support.. i have 2 very huge oaks in my yard, so moved my car to the neighbor's.. I put all important papers in plastic.. i have not done this since charley, which struck my family. I have water a NOAA weahter radio. battery operated!! candles and stuff.. but damn..i cant find my flaashlight!! I hear the wind howling now and i dont know how fast it is.. the time is 10 pm..what was the 9pm update??

[Brent]

thanks all for replying and your support.. i have 2 very huge oaks in my yard, so moved my car to the neighbor's.. I put all important papers in plastic.. i have not done this since charley, which struck my family. I have water a NOAA weahter radio. battery operated!! candles and stuff.. but damn..i cant find my flaashlight!! I hear the wind howling now and i dont know how fast it is.. the time is 10 pm..what was the 9pm update??

There was no change at 9pm. 115 mph winds, 951 mb pressure, moving WNW at 13. Center of the eye will make landfall between 12-1am around Fort Pierce(give or take 15 miles). Big track update is at 11...

[Bellarose]

Bella, you're not completely wrong, but not double.
The faster moving may be a plus.
I think you'll be fine and even with the shift west..Tampa, itself will be on the west side after many miles of land friction.
Don't get me wrong..I don't think anyone should be out driving to the corner store or sightseeing.

Thanks, Tron! I'm not really all that nervous about this one. We are in a complex with several cancer patients and I'm not only worried about me and my family, but them as well. I just spoke to one woman and she didn't know the storm was coming this way and was planning on driving to the hospital in the morning. Ugh!!! There are two other families, aside from her, and they are all older and I'm pretty sure they are not on Storm2k, getting the wonderful updates!

I'm sure we'll all be fine here, it's just the more I know what to expect, the better I'll feel. Even if the news is bad. Ya know?

Bella

[NorthGaWeather]

thanks all for replying and your support.. i have 2 very huge oaks in my yard, so moved my car to the neighbor's.. I put all important papers in plastic.. i have not done this since charley, which struck my family. I have water a NOAA weahter radio. battery operated!! candles and stuff.. but damn..i cant find my flaashlight!! I hear the wind howling now and i dont know how fast it is.. the time is 10 pm..what was the 9pm update??

There was no change at 9pm. 115 mph winds, 951 mb pressure, moving WNW at 13. Center of the eye will make landfall between 12-1am around Fort Pierce(give or take 15 miles). Big track update is at 11...

Landfall is occuring now.

[gulfcoaster53]

Steve Lyons' update just indicated that the track may be favoring the "west side of the cone". Bringing TPA and points south more into play.

DUH!!!

[inotherwords]

NHC says it will start moving n/nw only after it makes landfall, and it is just hitting Stuart now. It's also speeded up, so I would not look for a turn for a little while yet. The models seem to all agree with a northerly turn further inland, so I'm not really worried it will come to Sarasota. And if it does, it will be TS or borderline Cat 1 by the projections.

I don't know, I'm just not as worried about this one like I was the others. Fatigue, faith/trust in the NHC after seeing the last few tracks, naive ignorance, whatever. I'm surprised at howling winds in Tampa as we here near Venice are just getting mild breezes with occasional gusts so far and no discernable feeder bands as of yet. I can deal with TS winds.

[Noah]

NHC says it will start moving n/nw only after it makes landfall, and it is just hitting Stuart now. It's also speeded up, so I would not look for a turn for a little while yet. The models seem to all agree with a northerly turn further inland, so I'm not really worried it will come to Sarasota. And if it does, it will be TS or borderline Cat 1 by the projections.

I don't know, I'm just not as worried about this one like I was the others. Fatigue, faith/trust in the NHC after seeing the last few tracks, naive ignorance, whatever. I'm surprised at howling winds in Tampa as we here near Venice are just getting mild breezes with occasional gusts so far and no discernable feeder bands as of yet. I can deal with TS winds.

I know i was surprised at the howling winds too.. they are coming in waves..like the bands..no rain.. wind always scared me as a kid, must have been the wizord of oz that did me in!