How can the NHC track be right?

[N2FSU]

Take a look at the 5pm NHC official track...look at the angle they have the storm crossing the coastline at. Just an eyeball estimate looks like 290-300 degrees. Now take a look at this recent radar loop out of Melbourne:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... kmlb.shtml

Am I the only one who sees a big discrepancy in the forecasted track and what the storm is actually doing? It still looks almost due W to me, maybe 275 at best. I know the storm has been forecast to turn more WNW and then NW and eventually N after landfall, but it looks like it would have to take an extreme NW or even NNW turn in the next 3-4 hours to catch up to those projected 12-24 hr positions. All this leads me to believe a track into the eastern GOM is even more likely now (as Derek Ortt has predicted for some time now). When would the NHC finally give in to this likelihood and shift more to the left? The people here in the Big Bend (Tallahassee area) haven't seemed too concerned about this storm because the NHC continually says it will make this big northward turn and ride up the peninsula.

[Sean in New Orleans]

Apparently they are counting on friction from the land which will cause Jeanne to curve more N for a few miles and then NW...we'll soon find out if this holds. Right now, Jeanne is still moving at a decent clip so I do see your point.

[Guest]

no way they go against this strong of a consensus......patience daniel-son


http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

[HurryKane]

If you go to this loop and click the radio button "Forecast Points" just above the looping images....it appears to be right on track for the time being. To me anyway.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Cookiely]

I keep wondering at what point are they going to realize that its not going to verify and change the forecast track. I know they have changed it west but only as far as the coast. Maybe at eleven they will concede the possibility of it going into the GOM.

[inotherwords]

They said it would turn after landfall, and given that it hasn't made landfall yet, I'd say it's too early to predict failure on NHC's part, especially since the storm has speeded up, so the turn will likely come (if they're right) after it goes inland a bit. They got landfall right, even though tons of naysayers and armchair "experts" on this forum were saying due west into Miami/Ft. L. and no way as north as Ft. Pierce as NHC was saying, in forum thread after forum thread last night.

Also, the NHC track is not a line. If you interpret it as that, then you're going to be disappointed.

[Guest]

lol @ armchair experts!!

according to most of them every hurricane moves in a straight line infinitely!!

bravo to the NHC.....ft pierce or slightly north appears to be landfall!

[N2Storms]

Yeah, I was watching CNN and their on-air met (I don't remember her name) said that new model data showed a NW-N turn earlier than they had previously thought and that the center may actually scoot up the I-95 corridor and hug the east coast. She is the only one I've heard espousing that view, but I guess we'll know more at the 11:00pm update.

[tronbunny]

Yeah, I was watching CNN and their on-air met (I don't remember her name) said that new model data showed a NW-N turn earlier than they had previously thought and that the center may actually scoot up the I-95 corridor and hug the east coast. She is the only one I've heard espousing that view, but I guess we'll know more at the 11:00pm update.

????
the 00Z BAMD does closely follow the I-95 corridor, but that's the Eastern outlier?

[LCfromFL]

If you go to this loop and click the radio button "Forecast Points" just above the looping images....it appears to be right on track for the time being. To me anyway.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Hey Hurry...thanks for pointing out that 'forecast points' feature - I swear I've looked at these loops a gazillion times - and never noticed them before. Way cool feature - and I agree...seems to be really close to track.

[N2Storms]

the 00Z BAMD does closely follow the I-95 corridor, but that's the Eastern outlier?


Yes TB I thought it was kind of odd myself. One thing I learned from watching the various networks is that they very seldom agree with one another. Even here locally we have an ABC & NBC affiliate and their daily forecasts are hardly ever in total agreement.

[gulfcoaster53]

If you go to this loop and click the radio button "Forecast Points" just above the looping images....it appears to be right on track for the time being. To me anyway.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

it's going to miss the 11 Pm point significantly south. The storm continues to move essentially west. No sign of a turn. Water vapor continues to support current movement. I just don't see what's going to turn the storm to meet the NHC forecast. Perhaps they will shift west at 11?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[cape_escape]

I hope the North turn happens soon, not that I wish it farther up North, I have two sisters in Dunedin!