Jeanne likely actually landfalling as cat 2...per NHC

[southerngale]

The advisory says it cat. 3 and Max Mayfield just said it is cat. 3 - why are ya'll still arguing about it?

[yoda]

The advisory says it cat. 3 and Max Mayfield just said it is cat. 3 - why are ya'll still arguing about it?

Because the 11 PM discussion SUGGESTS otherwise...

[SouthernWx]

However, that one report of 112kt is not confirmed as a sustained wind.

No...but this data tells me Jeanne is a major hurricane...likely 115-120 mph with gusts over 140 mph (which the KMLB doppler radial velocity data indicates), and there will be major damage in the north eyewall region from St Lucie county into southern Brevard county....

[Chilly_Water]

Ok. I'm actually stealing this idea from a fellow S2K member(who doesn't post that much): They should drop the Saffir-Simpson scale altogether and just report the barometric pressure and give some reports of winds in every quadrant of the afflicted area.
Why?
Firstly, it'll end all this bickering on "how powerful the storm was."
Secondly, every aspect of the storm is different in every quadrant; hurricanes, and meteorology altogether, are completely fluid. Every square inch is different and putting such a broad "judgement" on such an entity is worthless....
just my opinion

[NorthGaWeather]

Nobody was yelling at people about the dry air. The fact was the storm was weakening, but not as much as people were saying at the time.

I don't know what kind of prizes you guys want for being right...

You must have missed those discussions. I saw several in which people who mentioned the storm looking ragged because of running into huge areas of dry air were ridiculed and even called trolls. Your attitude is perfectly symptomatic of the problem. I posted to point out that rude people had been wrong and to note that maybe in the future, they'd be less obnoxious in telling other people they think they're wrong. Considering that those other people just turned out to be right, that should be obvious. Instead of considering that a perfectly reasonable and civil comment/request, you say I'm suggesting people want "prizes" for being right.

People just don't want other people calling them names--especially when they're right and the other people are wrong.

Are you saying the dry air weakened Jeanne and the people who said that are right?

[NorthGaWeather]

The advisory says it cat. 3 and Max Mayfield just said it is cat. 3 - why are ya'll still arguing about it?

Because the 11 PM discussion SUGGESTS otherwise...

The 11 PM discussion was written beofre the data came in.

[yoda]

Nobody was yelling at people about the dry air. The fact was the storm was weakening, but not as much as people were saying at the time.

I don't know what kind of prizes you guys want for being right...

You must have missed those discussions. I saw several in which people who mentioned the storm looking ragged because of running into huge areas of dry air were ridiculed and even called trolls. Your attitude is perfectly symptomatic of the problem. I posted to point out that rude people had been wrong and to note that maybe in the future, they'd be less obnoxious in telling other people they think they're wrong. Considering that those other people just turned out to be right, that should be obvious. Instead of considering that a perfectly reasonable and civil comment/request, you say I'm suggesting people want "prizes" for being right.

People just don't want other people calling them names--especially when they're right and the other people are wrong.

Are you saying the dry air weakened Jeanne and the people who said that are right?

Well... it did some.. it was able to contain Jeanne enough so that she didn't strengthen alot.

[Sean in New Orleans]

All of this discussion and bickering about wind reports is irrelevent. The hurricane's category will also be determined by damage reports, as well, coming in during the next few days. A hurricanes category is also determined by the damage. Nobody seems to really consider this, IMO. There are numerous winds and gusts that go unreported and damage assessments reveal these to the proper people who categorize hurricanes.

[Guest]

This was more then 115 at landfall I think. As for Ivan it was a cat4 at landfall. I really think someone at nhc needs their head examined Avila is one. Frances was 115 at landfall and this is stronger. I do think the Bahamas played a role in Jeanne not becoming stronger. If she would have gone 40 miles south and missed the islands she would have been stronger.

[Lockhart]

The advisory says it cat. 3 and Max Mayfield just said it is cat. 3 - why are ya'll still arguing about it?

Just friendly discussion (I hope) of the comment in the discussion: "SFMR AND FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OBSERVATIONS AT THIS POINT DO NOT QUITE SUPPORT THE 100 KT INTENSITY ESTIMATE". As 100 kts is almost the absolute minimum for Category 3, if it isn't 100 kts, it might not be Category 3.

If I had to make a guess, I'd bet it will end up being considered category 3--but just barely.

[yoda]

The advisory says it cat. 3 and Max Mayfield just said it is cat. 3 - why are ya'll still arguing about it?

Because the 11 PM discussion SUGGESTS otherwise...

The 11 PM discussion was written beofre the data came in.

Huh? How so? What data are we talking about here? All data was in for the 11 PM. It does say that the plane is not done yet.. but all info from the plane to that point was included in the 11 PM advisory.

[Guest]

the dry air people didnt really even talk about weakening, just maintaining and that it saved florida from a cat4/5 because every other condition for strengthening was in place and she didnt significantly strengthen.

this cat2/cat3 1mph difference arguing is pretty irrelevant...what isnt is that a very minimal cat 3 vs a cat 4 would have been monumently different when it comes to damage and destruction.

the only real saving grace was the very dry air environment in which she worked.

[Wnghs2007]

Hey Guys Calm it down a bit ok. Who cares if there is a few miles per hour diffrence. There still will be very much total devestation in its path.

[NorthGaWeather]

The advisory says it cat. 3 and Max Mayfield just said it is cat. 3 - why are ya'll still arguing about it?

Because the 11 PM discussion SUGGESTS otherwise...

The 11 PM discussion was written beofre the data came in.

Huh? How so? What data are we talking about here? All data was in for the 11 PM. It does say that the plane is not done yet.. but all info from the plane to that point was included in the 11 PM advisory.

Exactly the entire storm was not sampled. The SFRM measured the NE quad surface winds of greater than 115 mph.

[yoda]

The advisory says it cat. 3 and Max Mayfield just said it is cat. 3 - why are ya'll still arguing about it?

Because the 11 PM discussion SUGGESTS otherwise...

The 11 PM discussion was written beofre the data came in.

Huh? How so? What data are we talking about here? All data was in for the 11 PM. It does say that the plane is not done yet.. but all info from the plane to that point was included in the 11 PM advisory.

Exactly the entire storm was not sampled. The SFRM measured the NE quad surface winds of greater than 115 mph.

IN FACT...SFMR AND FLIGHT LEVEL
WIND OBSERVATIONS AT THIS POINT DO NOT QUITE SUPPORT THE 100 KT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE...

[Guest]

This was more then 115 at landfall I think. As for Ivan it was a cat4 at landfall. I really think someone at nhc needs their head examined Avila is one. Frances was 115 at landfall and this is stronger. I do think the Bahamas played a role in Jeanne not becoming stronger. If she would have gone 40 miles south and missed the islands she would have been stronger.

[NorthGaWeather]

Correct "at this point". The data came in shortly after the advisory was issued so what do you want them to do write another discussion?

[Guest]

nope....just update the recon..


but looking at the last 1 hour of sat pics.....SHES TOIGHT.

probably strengthened back into a cat 3 JUST before landfall.

[DoctorHurricane2003]

This sounds like trolling to me....very very similar to the Ivan is a Cat 2 thread.....we want proof....etc. etc.

The NHC Set Maximum Surface Winds at 100 KT.

100 KT is a category 3.

There is proof through the dropsondes.

There is proof through surface reports.

Gusts don't have to be 20 MPH over a sustained wind....they can be as little as 1 MPH.

Jeanne is a category 3....end of discussion.

I suggest moderators to lock this topic before this becomes even more like the "Ivan is a Cat 2" thread.

[yoda]

ARRRGHH!

We will see soon enough...