Final Jeanne forecast analysis: 10 PM SAT 9/25

[SouthernWx]

The intense eyewall of hurricane Jeanne is moving onshore along the Florida east coast from Palm Beach county to southern Brevard county....the first major hurricane to impact many of these communities in over half century.

It now appears Jeanne's large eye will cross the coast between Jupiter and Fort Pierce during the next several hours....the same area where hurricane Frances traversed three weeks ago. There is one big difference....Jeanne is a strengthening cat-3, and the damage will IMO be much worse than resulted from Frances.

Jeanne's eyewall appears to be tightening and becoming more intense as landfall approaches, so slight strengthening is still likely while the core is over the warm Gulf Stream current....and the large core of destructive winds will cause significant damage over a wide area. I expect wind gusts in excess of 110 mph along the beaches from near West Palm Beach to near Melbourne, with 140-150 mph gusts possible in the northern eyewall...from Martin and St Lucie counties to Vero Beach and southern Brevard county.



Current: 10 PM SAT SEPT 25
Jeanne located at 27.2 N - 79.7 W or just east of Jupiter and Stuart, Florida...maximum sustained winds 100 kts (115 mph)...central pressure 951 mb.


Forecast:

landfall--
12 AM EDT SUN SEPT 26th
27.2 N - 80.1 W.....105 kt, gust to 130 kt
(moving inland near Stuart, Florida)


+12 hrs (from 10 PM this evening)
10 AM EDT SUN SEPT 26th
27.7 N - 81.5 W.....90 kt, gust to 110 kt
(inland about 35 miles southeast of Lakeland, Florida)


+24 hrs
10 PM EDT SUN SEPT 26th
29.1 N - 82.9 W......70 kt, gust to 85 kt
(along the Florida west coast near Cedar Key)


+36 hrs
10 AM EDT MON SEPT 27th
31.0 N - 83.4 W......45 kt, gust to 60 kt
(inland near Valdosta, Georgia)


+48 hr
10 PM EDT MON SEP 27th
32.9 N - 83.1 W......35 kt, gust to 50 kt
(inland just east of Macon, Georgia)


+60 hr
10 AM EDT TUE SEPT 28th
34.0 N - 82.0 W......30 kt, gust to 45 kt
(inland about 50 miles west of Columbia, South Carolina)


+72 hr
10 PM EDT TUE SEPT 28th
36.0 N - 79.4 W......30 kt, gust to 45 kt
(inland near Burlington, North Carolina)



Extended forecast:

+96 hr
10 PM EDT WED SEPT 29th
40.5 N - 71.0 W......45 kt, gust to 55 kt
(back over water and becoming extratropical just south of Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket, Massachusetts)


+120 hr
10 PM EDT THU SEPT 30th
44.0 N - 60.5 W......45 kt, gust to 55 kt
(extratropical/ passing just southeast of Nova Scotia)


Note: this will be my final analysis and track forecast for Jeanne. My thoughts and prayers are for those in the path and their loved ones.


Perry W.

[Guest]

"strengthening"....no data to support that...or 105kt winds..

[SouthernWx]

Yeah right Mr "Guest"...you were saying.....

WTNT61 KNHC 260359
TCUAT
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JEANNE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1200 AM EDT SUN SEP 26 2004

AROUND 1150 PM EDT SATURDAY...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JEANNE MADE LANDFALL NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF HUTCHINSON ISLAND JUST EAST OF STUART FLORIDA...NEAR LATITUDE 27.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.2 WEST.

RECENT OBSERVATIONS FROM THE STEPPED-FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER INSTRUMENT ONBOARD A NOAA P-3 RESEARCH AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT JEANNE WAS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE AT LANDFALL...WITH MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 120 MPH.

FORECASTER PASCH/FRANKLIN

$$


I may be an "amateur" meteorologist with no college degree....but friend, I am that good. After three decades of practice and dedicated severe storm research, I ought to be

[CAL]

Boom bah Bamm! You rock Perry

[JtSmarts]

I AGREE COMPLETELY PERRY ROCKS!!!!!!!!!!!

[Indystorm]

Excellent forecasting, Perry. Your knowledge of climatology, models, and synoptics helps us all!

[SouthernWx]

Thanks my friend....I needed that

I've had two days of trolls bashing my forecasts....one the other day said I "should leave the forecasting and analysis" to the "real pro's at NHC"

Well, tonight I feel vindicated. While not perfect, I always give 110% effort when creating an analysis and forecast, and it shows in the results.

With Jeanne slamming ashore this evening, that ties the record for most major landfalling Florida hurricanes in one season (and still the hurricane-potent month of October in SoFla to go); also the first time since 1954 that three major hurricanes have impacted the U.S. in a season (and in all honesty....Frances was very, very close to being a cat-3....based on the KMLB doppler and central pressure).

Since 1845, we'd never had a season in which 4 hurricanes impacted the U.S. with a central pressure less than 965 mb....at least until now:

Charley....941 mb
Frances....960 mb
Ivan.......943 mb
Jeanne.....953 mb

[Stormsfury]

Thanks my friend....I needed that

I've had two days of trolls bashing my forecasts....one the other day said I "should leave the forecasting and analysis" to the "real pro's at NHC"

Well, tonight I feel vindicated. While not perfect, I always give 110% effort when creating an analysis and forecast, and it shows in the results.

With Jeanne slamming ashore this evening, that ties the record for most major landfalling Florida hurricanes in one season (and still the hurricane-potent month of October in SoFla to go); also the first time since 1954 that three major hurricanes have impacted the U.S. in a season (and in all honesty....Frances was very, very close to being a cat-3....based on the KMLB doppler and central pressure).

Since 1845, we'd never had a season in which 4 hurricanes impacted the U.S. with a central pressure less than 965 mb....at least until now:

Charley....941 mb
Frances....960 mb
Ivan.......943 mb
Jeanne.....953 mb

Perry, you and I have been on the same page for the last 4-5 days with a Florida hit ... I don't know if Stuart, FL is considered Central or Southern Florida, but I've been progging Central FL for many days (on my website) and the both of us got the intensity and basically where we thought Jeanne would track almost perfectly ...

I'm hoping my half-sis in WPB area is weathering the storm ok, but that intense band on the southern side riding right over WPB is menacing ...

SF

[Anonymous]

wait a minute I am still waiting for the NHC landfall at Vero Beach .......you are wrong, this storm will make landfall north of Stuart. (much sarcasm)

[yoda]

wait a minute I am still waiting for the NHC landfall at Vero Beach .......you are wrong, this storm will make landfall north of Stuart. (much sarcasm)

Why are we bereating the NHC?

[donsutherland1]

Fantastic job, Perry!

Just ignore those who make the frivolous criticism you mentioned. Your commentary was very good and your ideas added much value, as is always the case.