Jeanne has Now Made "Landfall"

[MWatkins]

Although I disagree with the classification...the center of circulation for Jeanne has now come ashore...or is just coming ashore...between Ft Pierce and WPB.

I really think "landfall" hould be the point where the eyewall first touches land and not the "center" but whatever.

The hurricane once again has gone against the guidance and anyone practicing synoptic meteorology could have made the right landfall call. I mean come on! Vero Beach? Melbourne? Look up from the models for a sec and look at 2 things:

1. Sounding analysis
2. A weather map

The GFS needs some serious work if it can be trusted to be a true hurricane model. It has continued to fail this season. It was on the right track yesterday with a landfall and a track into the peninsula...but it missed again today. And the GFDL? Horrible.

Props to the NOGAPS model and to a lesser extent the UKMET. Even the CMC seemes to have come through some...but all save NOGAPS were too far north.

Now that Jeanne is inland I have a strange sense of relief and fatigue. Think of the timeline:

1. Charley comes in...but after only a few days off Frances develops and threatens a US landfall.

2. As Frances comes into FL, Ivan is making history in the Caribbean and demands watching.

3. Ivan plows ashore...but Jeanne is getting stronger.

4. Jeanne makes the much-anticipated loop back toward the US east coast.

5. The models defy synoptic-scale meteorology...and every post pointing this out is met head on.

I am going to sleep soon...for a month...now that there is no longer a landfall threat after Jeanne goes away.

One more day....one more day...then sleep.

MW

[gulfcoaster53]

Amen. Just let me make it to Thanksgiving!!

[EverythingIsEverything]

It's time to Hibernate for winter...what a season!

[senorpepr]

Although I disagree with the classification...the center of circulation for Jeanne has now come ashore...or is just coming ashore...between Ft Pierce and WPB.

I really think "landfall" hould be the point where the eyewall first touches land and not the "center" but whatever.

MW

I agree with you, Mike. I also feel that when a part of the eye (eyewall) first reaches land, you achieve landfall, not when the center crosses.

[birdwomn]

Where do you live, Mike? If it is anywhere in FL, I can feel for you.
If it is not, I still understand. This is exhausting.

Thanks for all your tireless work in sharing info with us here. I can't tell you how much it is appreciated!

[GNWeather]

Where do you live, Mike? If it is anywhere in FL, I can feel for you.
If it is not, I still understand. This is exhausting.

Thanks for all your tireless work in sharing info with us here. I can't tell you how much it is appreciated!

I think Mike is in the Miami area!

[Sanibel]

From my best estimation of a wobbling rough eye I say it made landfall over Jensen Beach after passing over south Hutchinson Island...

[MWatkins]

Where do you live, Mike? If it is anywhere in FL, I can feel for you.
If it is not, I still understand. This is exhausting.

Thanks for all your tireless work in sharing info with us here. I can't tell you how much it is appreciated!

Hey Birdwomn...

I'm in Winston Park...which is just a rock-throw south of the Palm Beach/Broward county line and very very close to Boca Raton Florida, also just a tad north of Ft lauderdale and Pompano.

I'm not so sure about the tireless part...I just keep writing checks until my body's ability to produce energy is overdrawn...somewhat self-detructively. I promised myself I wouldn't stay up until 2am yesterday...then I swore I would sleep past 7am. Whoops.

In all seriouness...thanks for the kind words.

MW

[Sanibel]

TWC radar makes the exact center landfall look like the small town of Walton...

[Weatherman911]

A NOAA National Weather Service Doppler radar image, recorded just prior to midnight Sunday, Sept. 26, 2004, shows the center of Hurricane Jeanne about crossing the southern portion of Hutchinson Island, to the east of Stuart, Fla., according to the National Hurricane Center. (AP Photo/NOAA, National Hurricane Center)

Photo:
http://us.news2.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/p/ ... lan109.jpg

Weatherman911