How far west is this sucker going?

#1 Postby **sponger** » Sun Sep 26, 2004 1:32 am

It seems hard to believe with its forward speed that this thing will make a hard right. I know the high is elongated but this thing may end up in PC before its over. What am I missing?

#2 Postby **Cookiely** » Sun Sep 26, 2004 1:38 am

I think that Derek may be right and its going to go into the Gom near Tampa and then north into panhandle and then northwest. I sure hope it weakens before it gets to Tampa. There are too many grand oaks around me which make me nervous.

yoda · #3 Postby **yoda** » Sun Sep 26, 2004 1:39 am

Cookiely wrote:I think that Derek may be right and its going to go into the Gom near Tampa and then north into panhandle and then northwest. I sure hope it weakens before it gets to Tampa. There are too many grand oaks around me which make me nervous.

You mean NE right?

#4 Postby **ericinmia** » Sun Sep 26, 2004 1:40 am

I just took a long look at all the upper level wind data...

Jeanne should being a wnw to eventuall nw track in about another 4-6 hours. The high is no longer fully extended north of jeanne at many levels, and is much weaker. This will lead to the westerly motion slowly in about ~4 hours... and a slight northward movement following, with the northward motion increasing.
The eye is going to come very close to the Tampa area before moving very much northward. This will also mean it might have the potential to intensify/reorganinze in the GOM to some degree, before landfall a little east of Apalachicola.
-Eric

cape_escape · #5 Postby **cape_escape** » Sun Sep 26, 2004 1:40 am

I hope so too Cookiely. What's it like there now? I have two sisters in Dunedin...

rtd2 · #6 Postby **rtd2** » Sun Sep 26, 2004 1:41 am

little east of Apalachicola

good call earlier post shoes we are in agreement on 2nd L/f

#7 Postby **sponger** » Sun Sep 26, 2004 1:42 am

Derek has had a solid fix on what this storm as up to. I can't discount him. He may not be a pro but I think he has done a better job the the Gfdl!

#8 Postby **sponger** » Sun Sep 26, 2004 1:47 am

Thanks eric and rtd2. I was hoping we would get a pass her in NE Fl but I guess its inevitable that we will oose power for another week or so. I can tell the strength of the winds by the tapping of my exhaust vent and its tapping like Francis already! Winds sustained at 15 gusts to 35

rtd2 · #9 Postby **rtd2** » Sun Sep 26, 2004 1:50 am

SPONGER if this thing stays west and uo towardyou expect a little more than with Frances cause Unlike Frances Jeanne AINT skowing down so She may stay a 'CANE all they way to Near you!

CharleySurvivor · #10 Postby **CharleySurvivor** » Sun Sep 26, 2004 1:52 am

If it wasn't for S2K - especially Derek, I'd be in big trouble right now as I wouldn't have secured things and debris around my house. I'm in Charlotte County and we are having major wind gusts here for the past 2 hours. The gutters in the back of my house just fell off an hour ago.

Thanks ST2!

Sean in New Orleans · #11 Postby **Sean in New Orleans** » Sun Sep 26, 2004 1:54 am

I think it has already started to make a turn to the NW....staring at the landfall makes it easier to miss the gradual turn, but, it's visible to me that it's no longer moving due W.

#12 Postby **sponger** » Sun Sep 26, 2004 1:56 am

With this power grid we are doomed for sure! At least we didnt get 2 direct hits in 3 weeks. This has been one crazy season. I hope Dr Grey has been wrong about his 40 year cycle starting up! Stay safe all, will log back on when power is up! Update NHC in 5!

#13 Postby **Stormcenter** » Sun Sep 26, 2004 2:09 am

Sean in New Orleans wrote:I think it has already started to make a turn to the NW....staring at the landfall makes it easier to miss the gradual turn, but, it's visible to me that it's no longer moving due W.

I'm sorry Sean not yet. It's coming though but not yet.

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/je ... /anis.html

How far west is this sucker going?

How far west is this sucker going?

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