5 AM JEANNE -- 110 MPH, 955 MB, W 12 (NEW HURR AND TS WARN!)

[yoda]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... _5day.html

[yoda]

at 5 am EDT...0900z...a Hurricane Warning has been issued along the
West Coast of Florida from Englewood to the Suwanee River. A
Hurricane Warning continues in effect for the Florida East Coast
from Hallandale northward to St. Augustine...including Lake
Okeechobee.

At 5 am EDT...0900z...all watches and warnings are discontinued
along the Florida East Coast south of Hallandale...and along the
Florida West Coast south of Chokoloskee...including the Florida
Keys.

A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect
from north of St. Augustine northward to Altamaha Sound Georgia.

At 5 am EDT...0900z...the Tropical Storm Warning is extended
westward along the Florida Gulf Coast to Destin. A Tropical Storm
Warning is now in effect along the Florida Gulf Coast south of
Englewood to Chokoloskee...and north and west of the suwanne river
to Destin. A Tropical Storm Warning is also now in effect north of
the Altamaha Sound to the Savannah River.

At 5 am EDT...0900z...the government of the Bahamas has discontinued
all warnings for the Bahamas.

[yoda]

Hurricane Jeanne Advisory Number 51


Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on September 26, 2004


...Jeanne weakens to a category two hurricane as it passes just
north of Lake Okeechobee...Hurricane Warning for Florida West
Coast...

at 5 am EDT...0900z...a Hurricane Warning has been issued along the
West Coast of Florida from Englewood to the Suwanee River. A
Hurricane Warning continues in effect for the Florida East Coast
from Hallandale northward to St. Augustine...including Lake
Okeechobee.
At 5 am EDT...0900z...all watches and warnings are discontinued
along the Florida East Coast south of Hallandale...and along the
Florida West Coast south of Chokoloskee...including the Florida
Keys.

A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect
from north of St. Augustine northward to Altamaha Sound Georgia.

At 5 am EDT...0900z...the Tropical Storm Warning is extended
westward along the Florida Gulf Coast to Destin. A Tropical Storm
Warning is now in effect along the Florida Gulf Coast south of
Englewood to Chokoloskee...and north and west of the Suwannee River
to Destin. A Tropical Storm Warning is also now in effect north of
the Altamaha Sound to the Savannah River.

At 5 am EDT...0900z...the government of the Bahamas has discontinued
all warnings for the Bahamas.

At 5 am EDT...0900z...the center of Hurricane Jeanne was located
near latitude 27.4 north...longitude 81.1 west or over the Florida
Peninsula about 20 miles east of Sebring Florida. This is also
about 45 miles west-southwest of Vero Beach Florida.

Jeanne is moving just north of due west near 13 mph. A gradual turn
toward the northwest is expected during the next 24 hours. This
motion should bring the center of Jeanne across the Florida
Peninsula to near the Tampa Bay area later today.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 110 mph...with higher
gusts. This makes Jeanne a category two hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Stronger winds...especially in
gusts...are likely to occur on high rise buildings. Jeanne will
continue to weaken as the center moves farther inland. However...
winds of hurricane force may occur as far as 100 miles inland along
the path of Jeanne.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the
center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205
miles. A Florida coastal monitoring program tower in Sebastien
Florida recently reported sustained winds of 67 mph with a gust to
81 mph.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb...28.20 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding...along with large and dangerous
battering waves...will begin to subside along the Florida East
Coast. A storm surge of up to 5 feet above the present water level
is likely to occur mainly on the east side of Lake Okeechobee.

Tides of 2 to 4 feet above normal are possible in the warned area
along the Florida West Coast....and higher at the heads of bays.
Tide could possibly reach 3 to 6 feet in areas of onshore flow north
of Tampa Bay.

Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches...with isolated higher amounts
...Are possible near the path of Jeanne over Florida.

Isolated tornadoes are possible over portions of the central and
northern Florida Peninsula and southeastern Georgia today.

Repeating the 5 am EDT position...27.4 N... 81.1 W. Movement
toward...just north of due west near 13 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...110 mph. Minimum central pressure... 955 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

Intermediate advisories will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 7 am EDT and 9 am EDT followed
by the next complete advisory at 11 am EDT.

Forecaster Beven

[Cookiely]

I guess the hurricane warning is better late than never for Tampa. It sure is getting scary and its just starting.

[yoda]

Hurricane Jeanne Discussion Number 51


Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on September 26, 2004



the 40 nm wide eye of Jeanne is now over the south central Florida
Peninsula between Sebring and Vero Beach...and is becoming somewhat
less distinct in both satellite imagery and radar data. Doppler
winds from the Melbourne WSR-88D have been between 100-115 kt most
of the night...although they are now starting to diminish. The
initial intensity is reduced to 95 kt...which may be a bit
generous.
The initial motion is 280/11. Water vapor imagery indicates that
Jeanne is approaching the western end of the deep layer ridge now
centered just east of Cape Hatteras. This should allow Jeanne to
begin its northward turn within 12-24 hr...followed by eventual
recurvature into the westerlies. All guidance agrees on the
general scenario...although there remains some spread as to the
timing of the turn. The NOGAPS remains the farthest west...taking
Jeanne across Apalachee Bay and just west of Tallahassee...while
the GFS is farthest to the right...taking Jeanne northward through
Gainesville. The official forecast will split the difference
between these two extremes...calling for Jeanne to pass near Tampa
then briefly emerge over Apalachee Bay before making a final
landfall in the Florida Panhandle. This should be followed by a
northward and northeastward motion across the southeastern United
States into the Atlantic.
Jeanne should continue to weaken while crossing the Florida
Peninsula...although due to the large size it may weaken slower
than is normal and will likely still be a hurricane at closest
approach to the Tampa area. While the forecast track does bring
Jeanne over Apalachee Bay...the sea surface temperature there is
only 26c...and with much of the circulation still over land the
chance of significant re-intensification appear to be poor. Jeanne
will weaken to a depression over the southeastern United
States...then is forecats to re-intensify over the Atlantic as an
extratropical system by 120 hr.
Winds of hurricane force could occur 100 miles or more inland
along the track of Jeanne.

Forecaster Beven

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 26/0900z 27.4n 81.1w 95 kt
12hr VT 26/1800z 28.1n 82.4w 65 kt...inland
24hr VT 27/0600z 29.7n 83.6w 55 kt...over water
36hr VT 27/1800z 31.8n 83.9w 35 kt...inland
48hr VT 28/0600z 34.0n 82.5w 30 kt...inland
72hr VT 29/0600z 39.0n 73.5w 30 kt...over water
96hr VT 30/0600z 42.0n 64.0w 40 kt...becoming extratropical
120hr VT 01/0600z 46.0n 52.0w 50 kt...extratropical