This has been driving me nuts!

[caneman]

It has been clear to me MWAtkins, DORTT and some others that this system should exit at Tampa or just North. I've been saying for 2 days it will exit thru the West instead of riding up the East coast. Well now the local news is showing landfall at Melbourne with their Viper and exiting some 60 miles North of here which I think is going to be way off base. So too is NHC. They did the same thing with Frances. I bring it up because with this much of an error the locals are seriously under reporting what the winds will be for the actual counties that in my opinion will actually be affected. FDrances winds were far higher than what had been being reported by the locals. What I would give for some one who calls it like they see it instead of reporting a couple hour old info.

[birdwomn]

Glad you got that off yoru chest! I hope it helped a little.
I have been frustrated with similar issues.

I don't think the forecasters (NHC, etc) have had a chance to revise plans and procedures effectively yet based on what we have learned this year due to the continual onslaught of storms. I am sure they will do a post mortem when things slow down and try to improve in any areas where they can. They are running as fast as they can, as we all are, and haven't been doing too badly, IMO.

[HurricaneQueen]

I'm with you Caneman. I depend on Mike and Derek before NHC. That's a sad commentary on our reporting services as most people don't have access to the information we get here.

Dixiebreeze just reported that they have a mandatory evacuation for Crystal River, an hour north of Tampa so somebody up there knows something that is not being broadly forecast. That is not in keeping with the "official" track.

This isn't really a knock on the NHC or their affiliates -I wouldn't be so presumptious-but it is frustrating.

[NFLnut]

They've been betting the farm on their cute little N/Nw turn for 12 hours now, and yet aside from a coupla wobbles its movement has been nothing BUT due west. If you look at the tracking map, they are already too far north by 20-60 miles. I don't see that this thing is going to make a N or NW turn anytime soon. I also think this thing rides up the Gulf coast, but what do I know!

[NFLnut]

DOrtt has been spot on.

[birdwomn]

Dixiebreeze just reported that they have a mandatory evacuation for Crystal River, an hour north of Tampa so somebody up there knows something that is not being broadly forecast. That is not in keeping with the "official" track.

Not to disagee with you, but doesn't the latest forecast have the storm going near Yankeetown? That is just north of Crystal River.

[dhweather]

The NHC is sticking with the models, and the models seem to be having problems with ridge strengths as of late.

Ivan to the keys, nope, Tampa, nope, Pensacola, nope Mobile........

Of course, if they are right, that's fine with me!

[HurricaneQueen]

Birdwomn:

I stand corrected. Thank you for pointing it out. Last I checked the recurvature was in the middle of the state. I didn't realize the official track is now taking Jeanne to the coast. Thank you.

Lynn

[caneman]

HAte to drive this into the ground but NOGAPS has been spot on. Why oh why does NHC allow the GFS bias affect the track as much as they do? People in Tampa were told to expect 40 to 50 mph winds and now it looks like 75+. I know we were in the cone but for the average Joe they follow the track and what local media says. I've been screaming for 2 days it will follow NOGAPS, Canadian and be far stronger than advertised. NHC can do better and would better serve the public to hug closer to the models that have had the most recent success.

[birdwomn]

Maybe we can get someone to interview Avila and ask him abo0ut the models they prefer and why?

[yoda]

HAte to drive this into the ground but NOGAPS has been spot on. Why oh why does NHC allow the GFS bias affect the track as much as they do? People in Tampa were told to expect 40 to 50 mph winds and now it looks like 75+. I know we were in the cone but for the average Joe they follow the track and what local media says. I've been screaming for 2 days it will follow NOGAPS, Canadian and be far stronger than advertised. NHC can do better and would better serve the public to hug closer to the models that have had the most recent success.

The NHC does not always follow the GFS/GFDL track path.

Um.. did you see the 5 AM Discussion? They said that they would follow a inbetween path... that the GFS was too far right and the NOGAPS was too far left...

Everyone in the cone should be prepared for the worst... and I know that the average Joe pays attention to the news on TV. Canadian had taken Jeanne into JAX two runs I saw... and IMO even though NOGAPS may be good here.. its track now is WAY to far left... the turn WNW to NW will commence w/in the next 6-8 hours.

[caneman]

HAte to drive this into the ground but NOGAPS has been spot on. Why oh why does NHC allow the GFS bias affect the track as much as they do? People in Tampa were told to expect 40 to 50 mph winds and now it looks like 75+. I know we were in the cone but for the average Joe they follow the track and what local media says. I've been screaming for 2 days it will follow NOGAPS, Canadian and be far stronger than advertised. NHC can do better and would better serve the public to hug closer to the models that have had the most recent success.

The NHC does not always follow the GFS/GFDL track path.

Um.. did you see the 5 AM Discussion? They said that they would follow a inbetween path... that the GFS was too far right and the NOGAPS was too far left...

Everyone in the cone should be prepared for the worst... and I know that the average Joe pays attention to the news on TV. Canadian had taken Jeanne into JAX two runs I saw... and IMO even though NOGAPS may be good here.. its track now is WAY to far left... the turn WNW to NW will commence w/in the next 6-8 hours.

Umm, at 5:00 AM they finally go against the GFS a little too late wouldn't ya say. And yes the NOGAPS has been best." NOGAPS a litle to left". WRONG. They have been dead on. For days on end they and the Canadian for the last couple of days had it coming here. It would help if you had your facts straight.

[yoda]

HAte to drive this into the ground but NOGAPS has been spot on. Why oh why does NHC allow the GFS bias affect the track as much as they do? People in Tampa were told to expect 40 to 50 mph winds and now it looks like 75+. I know we were in the cone but for the average Joe they follow the track and what local media says. I've been screaming for 2 days it will follow NOGAPS, Canadian and be far stronger than advertised. NHC can do better and would better serve the public to hug closer to the models that have had the most recent success.

The NHC does not always follow the GFS/GFDL track path.

Um.. did you see the 5 AM Discussion? They said that they would follow a inbetween path... that the GFS was too far right and the NOGAPS was too far left...

Everyone in the cone should be prepared for the worst... and I know that the average Joe pays attention to the news on TV. Canadian had taken Jeanne into JAX two runs I saw... and IMO even though NOGAPS may be good here.. its track now is WAY to far left... the turn WNW to NW will commence w/in the next 6-8 hours.

Umm, at 5:00 AM they finally go against the GFS a little too late wouldn't ya say. And yes the NOGAPS has been best." NOGAPS a litle to left". WRONG. They have been dead on. For days on end they and the Canadian for the last couple of days had it coming here. It would help if you had your facts straight.

I do have my facts straight... You said the Canadian.. and I told you that it took Jeanne into JAX for some time... you can go look that up if you wish. Again, as I said above, NOGAPS was good.. but its continuous left bias is its weakness. As a pro met said on here... (and I am paraphrasing for now.. but I will find the actual quote) "The NOGAPS is good with trending, but is poor in actual track... it was over 100 miles too far west with Ivan."

They did go against the GFS earlier... the GFS had the track way right at 11...

[wwicko]

The NHC does not always follow the GFS/GFDL track path.

Um.. did you see the 5 AM Discussion? They said that they would follow a inbetween path... that the GFS was too far right and the NOGAPS was too far left...

This is a strawman arguement. Caneman said, "Why oh why does NHC allow the GFS bias affect the track as much as they do?" Much different statement than you represent.

Yoda, didn't you say Jeanne would turn northwest six or eight hours ago?

[yoda]

The NHC does not always follow the GFS/GFDL track path.

Um.. did you see the 5 AM Discussion? They said that they would follow a inbetween path... that the GFS was too far right and the NOGAPS was too far left...

This is a strawman arguement. Caneman said, "Why oh why does NHC allow the GFS bias affect the track as much as they do?" Much different statement than you represent.

Yoda, didn't you say Jeanne would turn northwest six or eight hours ago?

Yes... but not six or eight hours ago... during the 4 AM hour.. I stated that w/in the next 6-8 hours it should start to turn WNW and then NW.

I don't understand the first part of your paragraph. Could you explain it?

[caneman]

The NHC does not always follow the GFS/GFDL track path.

Um.. did you see the 5 AM Discussion? They said that they would follow a inbetween path... that the GFS was too far right and the NOGAPS was too far left...

This is a strawman arguement. Caneman said, "Why oh why does NHC allow the GFS bias affect the track as much as they do?" Much different statement than you represent.

Yoda, didn't you say Jeanne would turn northwest six or eight hours ago?

Yes, Yoda likes to aruge with me. Unfortunately for he/she they are wrong as NOGAPS has been smack on and Canadian has been there for 2 days to. You've been saying NOGAPS has been wrong for days and also been saying day after day they were too far left. You also kept insisting a Gerorgia/Carolina event. When will you admit you are wrong? I'm sure some of the mets will back me up on NOGAPs. And just because NHC finally goes against GFS at 5:00 AM doesn't al the sudden justify them following that right bias..

[yoda]

The NHC does not always follow the GFS/GFDL track path.

Um.. did you see the 5 AM Discussion? They said that they would follow a inbetween path... that the GFS was too far right and the NOGAPS was too far left...

This is a strawman arguement. Caneman said, "Why oh why does NHC allow the GFS bias affect the track as much as they do?" Much different statement than you represent.

Yoda, didn't you say Jeanne would turn northwest six or eight hours ago?

Yes, Yoda likes to aruge with me. Unfortunately for he/she they are wrong as NOGAPS has been smack on and Canadian has been there for 2 days to. You've been saying NOGAPS has been wrong for days and also been saying day after day they were too far left. You also kept insisting a Gerorgia/Carolina event. When will you admit you are wrong? I'm sure some of the mets will back me up on NOGAPs. And just because NHC finally goes against GFS at 5:00 AM doesn't al the sudden justify them following that right bias..

One... my name is Matt, so I am a he.

2nd... I stated that the Canadain took Jeanne into JAX.. and I CAN show you that if you wish...

3.) PLEASE show me where I said this was a Carolinas/GA event. I NEVER SAID THAT, and if you can find where I did... I will bow down to you.

4.) I DID SAY that the NOGAPS was a good model... I was only stating that the NOGAPS usually has a leftward bias on the FINAL track. I wasn't saying that the NOGAPS was bad. It IS GOOD in picking trends. Yes, Stormsfury (a pro met) is who I was paraphrasing, and he would agree with you. But he also stated that the NOGAPS is usually too far left with its tracks...

[hiflyer]

why the nhc....and in my opinion Avila...rely so strongly on the GFS and associated models this season seems quite strange. I have heard everything including it's the 'american' model....guess that is election year theory.. This makes the second time TPA get's directly involved....first time the storm veered away....this time the storm veered toward. would make anyone living in the TPA area slightly nuts.....

[caneman]

The NHC does not always follow the GFS/GFDL track path.

Um.. did you see the 5 AM Discussion? They said that they would follow a inbetween path... that the GFS was too far right and the NOGAPS was too far left...

This is a strawman arguement. Caneman said, "Why oh why does NHC allow the GFS bias affect the track as much as they do?" Much different statement than you represent.

Yoda, didn't you say Jeanne would turn northwest six or eight hours ago?

Yes, Yoda likes to aruge with me. Unfortunately for he/she they are wrong as NOGAPS has been smack on and Canadian has been there for 2 days to. You've been saying NOGAPS has been wrong for days and also been saying day after day they were too far left. You also kept insisting a Gerorgia/Carolina event. When will you admit you are wrong? I'm sure some of the mets will back me up on NOGAPs. And just because NHC finally goes against GFS at 5:00 AM doesn't al the sudden justify them following that right bias..

One... my name is Matt, so I am a he.

2nd... I stated that the Canadain took Jeanne into JAX.. and I CAN show you that if you wish...

3.) PLEASE show me where I said this was a Carolinas/GA event. I NEVER SAID THAT, and if you can find where I did... I will bow down to you.

4.) I DID SAY that the NOGAPS was a good model... I was only stating that the NOGAPS usually has a leftward bias on the FINAL track. I wasn't saying that the NOGAPS was bad. It IS GOOD in picking trends. Yes, Stormsfury (a pro met) is who I was paraphrasing, and he would agree with you. But he also stated that the NOGAPS is usually too far left with its tracks...

YOu still have not answered me. The CANADIAN for the couple days had just about the same solution as NOGAPS. I don't have to show you any particuliar post to show you've had a right bias in spite of all evidence. And lastly while the NOGAPS may have a left bias they have been far more accurate than the GFS. ANd lastly following all of the GLobal models as an average would have been better than following the Good For Shi#/GFS who is horrible at picking up on strong ridges . My whole argument has been that NHC should follow models with the most recent successes rather than one that has been terrible. I've yet to here an answer from you on this. NOW, I don't have time to argue with you any longer as I'm expecting Hurricane force winds here any minute.

[wwicko]

The Straw Man fallacy is committed when a person simply ignores a person's actual position and substitutes a distorted, exaggerated or misrepresented version of that position. This sort of "reasoning" has the following pattern:

1. Person A has position X.
2. Person B presents position Y (which is a distorted version of X).
3. Person B attacks position Y.
4. Therefore X is false/incorrect/flawed.

***

Caneman never said that NHC always follows the GFS/GFDL track path. This is a distorted and weaker position than Caneman's position. Caneman asked,"Why oh why does NHC allow the GFS bias affect the track as much as they do? "