9 AM JEANNE -- 85 MPH, 970 MB, WNW 12; 27.7 N; 81.8 W

[yoda]

Hurricane Jeanne Intermediate Advisory Number 51b


Statement as of 9:00 am EDT on September 26, 2004



...Jeanne continues to weaken...but still a hurricane over the
central Florida Peninsula...
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect along the West Coast of
Florida from Englewood to the Suwanee River.
At 9 am EDT...1300z...the Hurricane Warning from Hallandale Beach to
Deerfield Beach Florida is discontinued. A Hurricane Warning
remains in effect for the Florida East Coast from north of
Deerfield Beach to St. Augustine...including Lake Okeechobee.
A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect
from north of St. Augustine northward to Altamaha Sound Georgia.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect along the Florida Gulf
Coast south of Englewood to Chokoloskee...and north and west of the
Suwannee River to Destin. A Tropical Storm Warning also remains in
effect north of the Altamaha Sound to the Savannah River.

At 9 am EDT...1300z...the eye of Hurricane Jeanne was located
near latitude 27.7 north...longitude 81.8 west...or about 15 miles
south of Bartow Florida...and about 50 miles east-southeast of
Tampa Florida.

Jeanne is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph. A gradual
turn toward the northwest is expected during the next 24 hours.
This motion should bring the center of Jeanne across the Florida
Peninsula to near the Tampa Bay area later today.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 85 mph...with higher
gusts. Stronger winds...especially in gusts...are likely to occur
on high rise buildings. Jeanne will continue to weaken today as
the center crosses the Florida Peninsula.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the
center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205
miles. Winds are still gusting to hurricane force in the Orlando
Metro area...and are increasing in the Tampa Bay area.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb...28.64 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding...along with large and dangerous
battering waves...will gradually subside along the Florida East
Coast. A storm surge of up to 5 feet above the present water level
is likely to occur mainly on the east side of Lake Okeechobee.

Tides of 2 to 4 feet above normal are possible in the warned area
along the Florida West Coast....and higher at the heads of bays.
Tide could possibly reach 3 to 6 feet in areas of onshore flow north
of Tampa Bay.

Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches...with isolated higher amounts
...Are possible near the path of Jeanne over Florida.

Isolated tornadoes are possible over portions of the central and
northern Florida Peninsula and southeastern Georgia today.

Repeating the 9 am EDT position...27.7n... 81.8 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...85 mph. Minimum central pressure... 970 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
11 am EDT.

Forecaster Pasch

[gulfcoaster53]

The fix has been 27.7 lat for 3 hrs now. Hope the WNW they keep referring to actually shows up soon!

[tampastorm]

NHC does not like to admit they are wrong, they need to just admit they were a little off on this one, and say it is going west.

[Brent]

The reason it's WNW is because they use the 6-hour motion in the advisories, which is CORRECT.

[tampastorm]

I guess but at this point, W or wnw the west coast is getting slammed reguardless,

[Possum Trot]

West = 270
West Northwest = 292.2
Northwest = 315

Jeannes Positions
03:00am 27.4 NORTH 80.7 WEST
09:00am 27.7 NORTH 81.8 WEST

In six hours Jeanne is 0.3 degrees North of West.
It doesn't seem to me correct to refer to this heading as WNW.

NHC does not like to admit they are wrong, they need to just admit they were a little off on this one, and say it is going west.

I've noticed this is true of some amature meteorologists as well.

[Wnghs2007]

West = 270
West Northwest = 292.2
Northwest = 315

Jeannes Positions
03:00am 27.4 NORTH 80.7 WEST
09:00am 27.7 NORTH 81.8 WEST

In six hours Jeanne is 0.3 degrees North of West.
It doesn't seem to me correct to refer to this heading as WNW.

NHC does not like to admit they are wrong, they need to just admit they were a little off on this one, and say it is going west.

I've noticed this is true of some amature meteorologists as well.

If that is correct. With the help of tom to let me know if I am wrong. Every .? of a degree equals 7 miles. So....

Jeanne since 3 Am in a 6 hr period has moved. 21 miles North. And 77 Miles West.