Still moving almost due west on radar

[logybogy]

Just slightly north of due west maybe.

It looks like the core of nasty weather will go right over or just to the south of Tampa.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... kmlb.shtml

[tampastorm]

I have to agree the north was jump in the time between radar loops. Maybe north Tampa, south pasco is what I am guessing, and use the word "guess" loosely

[Cookiely]

It looks west to me. http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS. ... ktbw.shtml Good morning everyone.

[tronbunny]

yup..nhc now saying north tampabay exit! as Cat1!

[birdwomn]

I hope I am seeing this incorrectly, but it looks like a North Pinellas/Pasco County thing... ugh

[Possum Trot]

03:00 27.0 NORTH 78.4 WEST
05:00 27.1 NORTH 78.8 WEST
07:00 27.1 NORTH 79.1 WEST
09:00 27.2 NORTH 79.5 WEST
11:00 27.2 NORTH 80.0 WEST
01:00 27.2 NORTH 80.4 WEST
03:00 27.4 NORTH 80.7 WEST
05:00 27.4 NORTH 81.1 WEST
06:00 27.6 NORTH 81.2 WEST
07:00 27.7 NORTH 81.4 WEST
08:00 27.7 NORTH 81.5 WEST

Sarasota 27.3 NORTH 82.4 WEST
St. Pete 27.8 NORTH 82.7 WEST
Tampa 28.0 NORTH 82.3 WEST
Spring Hill 28.5 NORTH 82.5 WEST

[yoda]

03:00 27.0 NORTH 78.4 WEST
05:00 27.1 NORTH 78.8 WEST
07:00 27.1 NORTH 79.1 WEST
09:00 27.2 NORTH 79.5 WEST
11:00 27.2 NORTH 80.0 WEST
01:00 27.2 NORTH 80.4 WEST
03:00 27.4 NORTH 80.7 WEST
05:00 27.4 NORTH 81.1 WEST
06:00 27.6 NORTH 81.2 WEST
07:00 27.7 NORTH 81.4 WEST

Sarasota 27.3 NORTH 82.4 WEST
St. Pete 27.8 NORTH 82.7 WEST
Tampa 28.0 NORTH 82.3 WEST
Spring Hill 28.5 NORTH 82.5 WEST

As seen above (thanks Possum Trot)... Jeanne is now moving WNW.

[hiflyer]

000
WTNT51 KNHC 261148
TCEAT
HURRICANE JEANNE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT SUN SEP 26 2004

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE JEANNE WAS ESTIMATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.5 WEST...OR 10 MILES
WEST-NORTHWEST OF BARTOW FLORIDA. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 65 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TAMPA FLORIDA.

FORECASTER PASCH

$$

[gulfcoaster53]

It's only moved about 9 mi since 7. Please don't slow down! Let's get this b**ch out of here as soon as possible.

[LCfromFL]

Was Jeanne moving more WNW overnight? I just woke up - and checked the forecast, radar and satellite pics. I'm just trying to catch up on what happened overnight - so please...be nice

I agree that she appears to be heading almost due west on radar
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.kmlb.shtml
http://www.intellicast.com/Local/USLocalWide.asp?seg=LocalWeather&loc=ktpa&prodgrp=RadarImagery&product=RadarLoop&prodnav=none&pid=none

those loops tend to be short time frames - and I haven't figured out how to make them 'longer'.

So then I looked at the satellite images to look at longer term 'trends'. When I look at this view of the IR satellite - and click on the 'forecast points' (thank you - whoever pointed that out last night!!) - it almost seems that she is tracking slightly to the right of the forecast track.

[url]http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html[url]

So I'm just making sure I'm seeing things right - she was heading more northerly? But now seems to be back to the west again?[/url]

[Possum Trot]

That's a very, very slow turn to the NW.

03:00 27.0 NORTH 78.4 WEST
05:00 27.1 NORTH 78.8 WEST
07:00 27.1 NORTH 79.1 WEST
09:00 27.2 NORTH 79.5 WEST
11:00 27.2 NORTH 80.0 WEST
01:00 27.2 NORTH 80.4 WEST
03:00 27.4 NORTH 80.7 WEST
05:00 27.4 NORTH 81.1 WEST
06:00 27.6 NORTH 81.2 WEST
07:00 27.7 NORTH 81.4 WEST
08:00 27.7 NORTH 81.5 WEST
09:00 27.7 NORTH 81.8 WEST

Sarasota 27.3 NORTH 82.4 WEST
St. Pete 27.8 NORTH 82.7 WEST
Tampa 28.0 NORTH 82.3 WEST
Spring Hill 28.5 NORTH 82.5 WEST

[birdwomn]

any takers on when/if this turn will happen at this point?

[yoda]

any takers on when/if this turn will happen at this point?

It already is turning.. WNW it is going.. but the turn is going very slowly.

[kevin]

its gotta happen sometime. I think recurve over gulf.... into north of cedar key.

[Brent]

any takers on when/if this turn will happen at this point?

It's been happening since right before landfall. It's a gradual turn.

[Possum Trot]

- it almost seems that she is tracking slightly to the right of the forecast track.

I think the confusion may be because the forecast track has changed since you looked last night.

Try this radar view:
http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/je ... /anis.html

Or this one:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/RAD_ ... mauto.html

[LCfromFL]

- it almost seems that she is tracking slightly to the right of the forecast track.

I think the confusion may be because the forecast track has changed since you looked last night.

Try this radar view:
http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/je ... /anis.html

Or this one:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/RAD_ ... mauto.html

Thanks for the longer radar loops, Possum! Things are making more sense now (and I'm on my 3rd cup of coffee too - which certainly helps )

[HollynLA]

Looking at the radar, it appears to be moving WNW. The panhandle will be getting Jeanne soon enough, the only thing I worry about is, how much westward will she go as to what part of the panhandle. She needs to stay away from the Ivan ravaged areas. What a complete disaster that would be. I know, I'll bite my tongue now

[Possum Trot]

any takers on when/if this turn will happen at this point?

I won't insult your intelligence. Although Jeanne has curved .5 NORTH since landfall, I remember that the forecast track when most people in Tampa Bay were going to bed, was for Jeanne to be mid-state and well north of the current position. It must have been surprising for many who woke up in the Tampa Bay area this morning.

ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER 50
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT SEP 25 2004

INITIAL 26/0300Z 27.2N 80.0W 100 KT
12HR VT 26/1200Z 28.0N 81.5W 65 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 27/0000Z 29.2N 82.9W 45 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 27/1200Z 31.0N 83.5W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 28/0000Z 33.0N 83.0W 25 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 29/0000Z 38.0N 75.5W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 30/0000Z 42.0N 65.0W 40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 01/0000Z 45.0N 54.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

[Rainband]

supposed to pass within 11 miles of here, Aripeka. I am in port richey

Results for 28.2N, 82.7W:
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 28.3N, 82.5W or about 11.4 miles (18.4 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the eye will be at that location is in about 13.4 hours. Be patient for the map to be generated below. (If you get a 'broken' image, try reload/refresh).

http://stormcarib.com/closest1.htm