B, C, F, I, J, for Florida. Could we have another one?

[HURAKAN]

After Bonnie, Charley, Frances, Iván, and Jeanne, the question is: Could we have another storm in Florida in October or November? It will be horrible. We have to remember that historically October has produced devastating hurricanes for Florida.

Comments?

[x-y-no]

No reason to think we won't have one of those western Caribbean/Gulf systems crossing west to east sometime in October.

After seeing Lisa turn north, I think there's good hope that we're done with landfalling Cape Verde storms (note I don't say named Cape Verde storms). Nothing is absolutely impossible, of course, but it would be very extraordinary for anything to make it all the way across the Atlantic to CONUS at this point.

[ColdFront77]

Yes, possible for three reasons:

(1) Climatologically (as you mentioned, HURAKAN) tropical cyclone movement is northeastward and eastward from the Gulf of Mexico and/[or] Bay of Campeche. This is mainly from the development of "homebrewed" storms.

(2) The pattern we have been in in the last eight or so weeks has supported storm systems moving into the Sunshine State.

(3) "Florida is a sitting duck" -- what our friend John Hope mentioned. The state state has been very luck not to get even a one hurricane in the last several years.

[Pawleys Island]

With this season, anything is possible.

[LAwxrgal]

^Unfortunately, with the way this season has gone, anything is possible...it's quite possible there could be another landfalling system in Florida...

Not to mention...all these storms (with the exception of Bonnie and Frances) were major hurricanes...

[OtherHD]

(3) "Florida is a sitting duck" -- what our friend John Hope mentioned. The state state has been very luck not to get even a one hurricane in the last several years.

Huh? Might want to update that!

[Scorpion]

I certainly think its possible. This time though, the Keys and Miami won't be off the hook.

[Guest]

its gotten 4 hurricanes (Ivans eye did not hit directly but FLA got the worst part of it) and 1 tropical storm. They have all taken the same path as well, just inland along the east coast (Ivan went along the spine of the apps). I think Florida may get another.

[Patrick99]

Perhaps the Keys and Miami will see a little October action. It's kinda funny that almost the entire state, including the Panhandle, has seen hurricane conditions - except Miami, some parts of Broward, and the Keys.

[ColdFront77]

its gotten 4 hurricanes (Ivans eye did not hit directly but FLA got the worst part of it) and 1 tropical storm. They have all taken the same path as well, just inland along the east coast (Ivan went along the spine of the apps). I think Florida may get another.

Charley took a northeasterly track about 210 miles from the Port Charlotte area to Palm coast. It took approximately 8 hours and 15 minutes to cross the state.

Frances took a west-northwesterly track about 180 miles through Florida... from near Stuart to north of Tampa. It took about 22 hours to cut across the state.

Although Jeanne has taken a similar track, expectations is that the storm should pass make a turn through the peninsula later today, tonight and points northward tomorrow and beyond.

[birdwomn]

Perhaps the Keys and Miami will see a little October action. It's kinda funny that almost the entire state, including the Panhandle, has seen hurricane conditions - except Miami, some parts of Broward, and the Keys.

There is a section in the middle of the panhandle that hasn't has hurricane warnings/winds as yet as well. (I think they probably had tropical storm)

[tropicsgal]

Isay it's possible , we had Opal form in October1995.

[Sanibel]

I don't think it is logically sound to think that since several counties have not yet received hurricane damage in this freak year that they will.

Since 4 cyclones affecting Florida in the same year is unprecedented, it is against the straight statistical odds for it to be hit again.

Of course, however, climatology necessitates the possibility...

[Patrick99]

Many FL Keys and Miami storms have hit during October and into November. Almost time to start looking for Hebert Box #2! hehe

[jdray]

I'd have to say, very possible, the gulf seems to be really starting to flare up every few days, if that increases, we could be looking at one finally developinga nd heading towards the extreme S. Florida area or part of the FL Gulf coast. I have a feeling if we do it will be either S. Florida (south of Lake Okechobee) or the Keys that will be directly impacted. If you didn' tnotice, the whole state EXCEPT the southern counties have taken major damage from one storm or another, as well as the NE part of the state, those being:

- Duvall (Jacksonville)
- Miami-Dade/Broward (Miami/Ft. Lauderdale)
- Collier (Naples/Marco Island)
- Mainland Monroe (No major city)

I believe the next, if there is a next, tropical system will probably directly affect these counties. Or at least should if we're forced to deal with another one, because these counties are the least affected so far and any other county may not survive another one, not that i'm saying we can control them, but in all fairness, even the world doesn't work like that, these counties deserve the next, if we have a next, hurricane to hit the Sunshine state.

Kevin Cho - East Naples, FL

Duval County & the rest of the First Coast, while not having taken a direct hit, has still taken some heavy damage. more so than anywhere in Miami area/Keys.

Frances knocked out power to over 1 million people in this area.
We were under TS conditions for over 24 hours, numerous tornados.
Our local rivers were and most still are in flood stage. most of our beaches are washed away before Jeanne decided to park out in the atlantic for a few days. Over 100 million tons of yard debris from fallen trees just from Frances.

Local school systems were disrupted. Most counties missed at least 3 days, some missed as much as 2 weeks.

Just because we didnt get the 75+ mph winds, don't think we haven't had any damage this year.

A lot of us went without power and water as well.

THE ONLY PART of the state NOT to receive much Damage this year is Miami and to the South.

[inotherwords]

Kevin Cho wrote: If you didn' tnotice, the whole state EXCEPT the southern counties have taken major damage from one storm or another, as well as the NE part of the state, those being:

- Duvall (Jacksonville)
- Miami-Dade/Broward (Miami/Ft. Lauderdale)
- Collier (Naples/Marco Island)
- Mainland Monroe (No major city)

Not to jinx us, but I'd add Sarasota county to this list. It was not majorly damaged, though we're getting a lot of near-hurricane winds this morning. And our local mets reminded us that the worst month for the western FL coast from N to S is traditionally October when storms form in the Caribbean or Gulf.

[HURAKAN]

Here in SE Florida we have been very fortunate since four hurricanes have made landfall in our state and we have been impacted very lightly. This luck is surprising but no one should let their guards down since we never know when we are going to run out of luck. Maybe next year all hurricane that affect Florida would impact SE Florida, we don't know. I say this because many persons in Miami-Dade County, Broward County, and much of Palm Beach County that have been preparing for the worse are thinking that because none of the hurricanes have affected them seriously that will continue for the next years and in the next emergency they will not prepare. Something similar happened with Andrew, since Miami had not been affected directly by a major hurricane in decades people didn't take the threat seriously until the last minute when it was too late. Conclusion, if you live in Florida and you are one of those lucky that have not been affected seriously, don't take the guard down for the next 2 months and years to come.

[Pebbles]

Unfortuantely, unless the synoptic pattern changes... it's very possible for the same trend to continue. *sighs sadly and hugs all her florida buds*.

[Foladar]

^Unfortunately, with the way this season has gone, anything is possible...it's quite possible there could be another landfalling system in Florida...

Not to mention...all these storms (with the exception of Bonnie and Frances) were major hurricanes...

All these storms were major hurricanes except Bonnie and Frances? No offense, but I wouldn't call Frances NOT a major hurricane..

[HURAKAN]

Many FL Keys and Miami storms have hit during October and into November. Almost time to start looking for Hebert Box #2! hehe

agree