11am Jeanne-75 mph winds

[Brent]

Hurricane Jeanne Forecast/Advisory Number 52

Statement as of 15:00Z on September 26, 2004

a Hurricane Warning remains in effect along the West Coast of
Florida from Englewood to the Suwannee River.

At 11 am EDT...1500z...the Hurricane Warning from north of Deerfield
Beach to Jupiter Inlet Florida is discontinued. A Hurricane
Warning remains in effect for the Florida East Coast from north of
Jupiter Inlet to St. Augustine...including Lake Okeechobee.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect along the Florida Gulf
Coast south of Englewood to Chokoloskee...and north and west of the
Suwannee River to Destin.

At 11 am EDT...1500z...the Hurricane Watch from north of St.
Augustine Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia is discontinued.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from north of St.
Augustine Florida northward to the Savannah River.

Hurricane center located near 27.9n 82.0w at 26/1500z
position accurate within 20 nm

present movement toward the west-northwest or 290 degrees at 9 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 970 mb
Max sustained winds 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt.
64 kt....... 60ne 50se 40sw 50nw.
50 kt.......100ne 75se 60sw 75nw.
34 kt.......150ne 125se 125sw 150nw.
12 ft seas..480ne 300se 225sw 175nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 27.9n 82.0w at 26/1500z
at 26/1200z center was located near 27.7n 81.6w

forecast valid 27/0000z 28.9n 83.0w...inland
Max wind 55 kt...gusts 65 kt.
50 kt... 75ne 60se 40sw 60nw.
34 kt...150ne 125se 125sw 150nw.

Forecast valid 27/1200z 30.8n 83.8w...inland
Max wind 35 kt...gusts 45 kt.
34 kt...125ne 100se 100sw 125nw.

Forecast valid 28/0000z 33.1n 83.2w...inland
Max wind 30 kt...gusts 40 kt.

Forecast valid 28/1200z 35.6n 80.4w...inland
Max wind 25 kt...gusts 35 kt.

Forecast valid 29/1200z 40.5n 71.0w...over water
Max wind 30 kt...gusts 40 kt.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day

outlook valid 30/1200z 44.0n 60.0w...becoming extratropical
Max wind 40 kt...gusts 50 kt.

Outlook valid 01/1200z 48.0n 48.0w...extratropical
Max wind 50 kt...gusts 60 kt.

Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 27.9n 82.0w

next advisory at 26/2100z

forecaster Pasch

[Brent]

Hurricane Jeanne Advisory Number 52

Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on September 26, 2004

...Jeanne nearing the Tampa Bay area...

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect along the West Coast of
Florida from Englewood to the Suwannee River.

At 11 am EDT...1500z...the Hurricane Warning from north of Deerfield
Beach to Jupiter Inlet Florida is discontinued. A Hurricane
Warning remains in effect for the Florida East Coast from north of
Jupiter Inlet to St. Augustine...including Lake Okeechobee.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect along the Florida Gulf
Coast south of Englewood to Chokoloskee...and north and west of the
Suwannee River to Destin.

At 11 am EDT...1500z...the Hurricane Watch from north of St.
Augustine Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia is discontinued.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from north of St.
Augustine Florida northward to the Savannah River.

At 11 am EDT...1500z...the center of Hurricane Jeanne was located
near latitude 27.9 north... longitude 82.0 west or about 30 miles
east-southeast of Tampa Florida.

Jeanne is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph. A gradual
turn toward the northwest is expected during the next 24 hours.
This motion should bring the center of Jeanne near the Tampa Bay
area in a few hours...and near or just offshore of the Florida West
Coast to the north of Tampa Bay later today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph...with higher gusts.
Jeanne is expected to weaken below hurricane strength later today.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the
center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 175 miles. Winds have continued to increase in the Tampa Bay
area. A wind gust to 67 mph was reported at vandenburg Airport
near Tampa...and a gust to 60 mph was reported at Sarasota.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb...28.64 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding...along with large and dangerous
battering waves...will gradually subside along the Florida East
Coast. A storm surge of up to 5 feet above the present water level
is likely to occur mainly on the east side of Lake Okeechobee.

Tides of 2 to 4 feet above normal are possible in the warned area
along the Florida West Coast....and higher at the heads of bays.
Tides could possibly reach 3 to 6 feet in areas of onshore flow
north of Tampa Bay.

Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches...with isolated higher amounts
...Are possible near the path of Jeanne.

Isolated tornadoes are possible over portions of the central and
northern Florida Peninsula and southeastern Georgia today.

Repeating the 11 am EDT position...27.9 N... 82.0 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 10 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 75
mph. Minimum central pressure... 970 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 2 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 5 PM
EDT.

Forecaster Pasch

[Brent]

INITIAL-27.9 N 82.0 W 65 KT
12 HR-28.9 N 83.0 W 55 KT-INLAND NEAR CRYSTAL RIVER, FLORIDA
24 HR-30.8 N 83.8 W 35 KT-INLAND NEAR QUITMAN, GEORGIA JUST WEST OF VALDOSTA
36 HR-33.1 N 83.2 W 30 KT-INLAND NEAR SANDERSVILLE, GEORGIA
48 HR-35.6 N 80.4 W 25 KT-INLAND OVER NORTH CAROLINA
72 HR-40.5 N 71.0 W 30 KT-OVER WATER EAST OF LONG ISLAND
96 HR-44.0 N 60.0 W 40 KT-BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120 HR-48.0 N 48.0 W 50 KT-EXTRATROPICAL

[Stormsfury]

0.2ºN, 0.2ºW on the 11 am from the 9 am ... trend or wobble?

Jeanne has slowed down to 10 mph, and MAY be slower than that ... IMHO, the turn is beginning ...

SF

[ColdFront77]

I agree. Jeanne has wobbled so much in the last 1/2 day that the turn would be taking place by noon or so.

[Rainband]

0.2ºN, 0.2ºW on the 11 am from the 9 am ... trend or wobble?

Jeanne has slowed down to 10 mph, and MAY be slower than that ... IMHO, the turn is beginning ...

SF

the turn to the NW thats forecast or the recurve that has been coming for three days??

[ColdFront77]

If this turn was expected three days ago it wouldn't have or nearly wouldn't have made it to the Florida east coast.

[Rainband]

If this turn was expected three days ago it wouldn't have or nearly wouldn't have made it to the Florida east coast.

I was refering to the cone and the prospect it could miss the east coast. Thats what they were saying was possible, right??

[Brent]

The NW turn is starting I believe is what SF is saying... recurve would technically be an east of due north motion which isn't expected til tomorrow in Georgia.

[Rainband]

The NW turn is starting I believe is what SF is saying... recurve would technically be an east of due north motion which isn't expected til tomorrow in Georgia.

I meant recurve in terms of missing the east coast three days ago. I see the NW turn on radar My-cast.com is very good. It's free

[Brent]

The NW turn is starting I believe is what SF is saying... recurve would technically be an east of due north motion which isn't expected til tomorrow in Georgia.

I meant recurve in terms of missing the east coast three days ago. I see the NW turn on radar My-cast.com is very good. It's free

Yes...

[ColdFront77]

If this turn was expected three days ago it wouldn't have or nearly wouldn't have made it to the Florida east coast.

I was refering to the cone and the prospect it could miss the east coast. Thats what they were saying was possible, right??

Sure, but that didn't last too long.