Forecasting vs. Verifying

[PurdueWx80]

Since some heated discussions have been started regarding various topics related to tropical cyclones, I wanted to begin a thread regarding forecasting and verifying since they are two drastically different things. This post is in no way meant to start a discussion related to the specifics of Jeanne or any other storm, but instead is meant to clear up some things regarding the topic I mentioned. I would please ask that everyone respect that, and I'm sure the mods will be able to judge this accordingly.

Verifying is something you do post-event. It is difficult to verify something when it hasn't obviously or clearly happened. It is much easier to verify something when you can look at past data. There is no foresight involved in verification.

Forecasting, on the other hand, is something a meteorologist or weather enthusiast does given model guidance, a well-educated understanding of atmospheric behavior, and a wealth of observational data. A forecast might suggest the possibility of a weather event happening given some well-reasoned understanding. Forecasts can be incorrect, but verification is the absolute truth.

Any comments or opinions are welcomed.

[Pebbles]

A well thought out post. Thank you for your observations and statements. *applauds*

[Sanibel]

Thank you for your post describing the meaning of weather terms. It is good to have a place where the various interpretation of these terms can be critically discussed.


On a side note our roof vent finally ripped off and flew off the roof. Charley ripped it back, Ivan tore the remaining attached part, and Jeanne finally blew it off...

[PurdueWx80]

HAHA...Sanibel, not that the roof vent flying off is that funny, but I do remember you posting on this just after I joined the board when Charley was in the news. Craziness.