No tornado threat with Jeanne?

Anonymous · #1 Postby **Anonymous** » Sun Sep 26, 2004 10:53 am

I have noticed that there hasnt been a tornado warning all day and the last one issued was at 2:30 this morning... Does this mean there isnt as high risk of tornadoes as was with Frances? Frances produced a lot of tornado warnings.

http://kamala.cod.edu/svr/

Rainband · #2 Postby **Rainband** » Sun Sep 26, 2004 10:55 am

there is one in NE florida right now or there was a few minutes ago :wink:

#3 Postby **dhweather** » Sun Sep 26, 2004 10:55 am

Dr. Forbes on TWC indicated that with afternoon heating, that activity should increase.

Anonymous · #4 Postby **Anonymous** » Sun Sep 26, 2004 10:57 am

Rainband wrote:there is one in NE florida right now or there was a few minutes ago

Oh-i see that now-I had to mention it huh lo

#5 Postby **simplykristi** » Sun Sep 26, 2004 11:35 am

According to Dr Forbes on TWC, no confirmed tornadoes yet.

Kristi

#6 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Sun Sep 26, 2004 11:46 am

Here is the latest SPC mesoscale discussion. It is very technical but basically explains how the tornado threat will be increasing as the boundary layer warms.

AS SFC HEATING CONTINUES AROUND PERIPHERY OF CYCLONE THROUGHOUT
DAYLIGHT HOURS...BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BECOME MORE BUOYANT AND SOME OF
THIS AIR SHOULD BE DRAWN INTO NERN PORTION OF JEANNE. THEREFORE
EXPECT OVERALL SUPERCELL POTENTIAL TO INCREASE. THIS INCLUDES AIR
MASS NOW OVER SERN GA...WHERE MOIST ADVECTION IS EXPECTED WITH
INCREASING ELY/DECREASING NLY FLOW COMPONENT...AND WHERE LOW LEVEL
SHEAR WILL INCREASE GRADUALLY WITH TIME.

IN NEAR TERM AN AREA OF MAXIMIZED RISK IS EVIDENT -- ACROSS PORTIONS
VOLUSIA/FLAGLER/ST. JOHNS COUNTIES THROUGH AT LEAST 17Z...SPREADING
OVER CLAY/PUTNAM/DUVAL/ALACHUA/UNION/BRADFORD/ BAKER COUNTIES
THROUGH 18Z AND BEYOND. AS OF 15Z CENTER OF JEANNE IS OVER POLK
COUNTY. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS PRONOUNCED SFC TROUGH/WIND SHIFT LINE
EXTENDING FROM THERE ENEWD OVER CAPE CANAVERAL TO POSITION
APPROXIMATELY 30 NM N OF BUOY 41010 IN ATLANTIC. EXPECT THIS TROUGH
TO SHIFT NWWD IN STEP WITH CENTER OF TROPICAL CYCLONE. DRYING
EVIDENT IN REFLECTIVITY/SATELLITE LOOPS AND PERIPHERAL 12Z RAOBS IS
EXPECTED TO WRAP INTO MORE OF ERN SEMICIRCLE OF CIRCULATION...AIDING
IN DIURNAL HEATING. TROUGH THEN MAY BECOME WEAK BAROCLINIC
ZONE...AND IN ANY EVENT SHOULD ENHANCE TORNADO POTENTIAL BOTH
1. WHERE IT INTERSECTS OUTER BAND NOW EXTENDING SEWD FROM DAB AND
2. WHERE ANY DISCRETE CELLS ON EITHER SIDE OF BAND MAY CROSS IT

No tornado threat with Jeanne?

No tornado threat with Jeanne?

Who is online