5pm Jeanne-65 mph winds

[Brent]

Tropical Storm Jeanne Advisory Number 53

Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 26, 2004

...Jeanne continues to gradually weaken over Florida...

at 5 PM EDT...2100z...the Tropical Storm Warning on the Florida Gulf
Coast south of Englewood is discontinued.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect on the Atlantic coast
from north of Cocoa Beach to the Savannah River...and on the Gulf
Coast from north of Englewood to Destin.

At 5 PM EDT...2100z...the center of Tropical Storm Jeanne was
located near latitude 28.8 north... longitude 82.6 west or about 35
miles southeast of Cedar Key Florida.

Jeanne is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph...and a gradual
turn to the north is expected during the next 24 hours. On this
track...the center will be moving near The Big Bend area of Florida
later tonight and early Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph...with higher gusts.
Further weakening is forecast during the next 24 hours...and Jeanne
will probably become a tropical depression on Monday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles from the
center. During the past hour...the follwing wind gusts have
occurred across central and North Florida...66 mph at Sanford...
63 mph at St. Petersburg...60 mph at St. Augustine...56 mph at
Orlando...54 mph at Tampa......and 48 mph at Gainesville...Cross
City...and Sarasota.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb...28.73 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding...along with large and dangerous
battering waves...will gradually subside along the Florida East
Coast.

Tides of 2 to 4 feet above normal are possible in the warned area
along the Florida West Coast....and higher at the heads of bays.
Tides could possibly reach 3 to 6 feet in areas of onshore flow
north of Tampa Bay.

Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches...with isolated higher amounts
...Are possible near the path of Jeanne.

Isolated tornadoes are possible over portions of northern Florida
Peninsula and southeastern Georgia this evening and tonight.

Repeating the 5 PM EDT position...28.8 N... 82.6 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 65 mph.
Minimum central pressure... 973 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 8 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 11 PM
EDT.

Forecaster Pasch/Stewart

[Brent]

Tropical Storm Jeanne Discussion Number 53

Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 26, 2004

the circulation continues to gradually spin down over land and peak
Doppler velocities/VAD wind profiles from the Tampa WSR-88D radar
suggested 55-60 kt surface winds around 20z and the 21z advisory
intensity is set at 55 kt. The radar presentation is slowly
deteriorating...but Jeanne still has a large and strong wind
circulation at this time. Nonetheless...the interaction with land
should continue to take its toll and the cyclone should drop below
storm strength by Monday morning.

The track forecast is similar to that from the previous advisory
through about day 3. Jeanne is expected to continue rounding a
deep-layer high pressure area near the southeast United States
coast. A turn to the north and northeast is expected over the next
1-2 days with the center of the weakening cyclone moving across the
southeastern states and emerging into the Atlantic over the
mid-Atlantic states.

In comparison to the previous advisory track prediction at days
4-5...the official forecast track has been slowed and shifted a
little southward. This is because the global model guidance is now
suggesting that Jeanne's extratropical remnant might not accelerate
east-northeastward to the south of the Canadian Maritimes as
earlier indicated. It is quite possible that the system will
partially cut off from the main westerlies...slow somewhat...and
start moving more southward near the end of the forecast period.

Forecaster Pasch

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 26/2100z 28.8n 82.6w 55 kt...inland
12hr VT 27/0600z 30.0n 83.3w 40 kt...inland over Taylor County, Florida
24hr VT 27/1800z 31.9n 83.5w 30 kt...inland near Cordele, Georgia
36hr VT 28/0600z 34.2n 82.0w 25 kt...inland near Saluda, South Carolina
48hr VT 28/1800z 36.5n 78.0w 25 kt...inland near Roanoke Rapids, North Carolina
72hr VT 29/1800z 40.5n 69.0w 30 kt...over water
96hr VT 30/1800z 43.0n 60.0w 40 kt...becoming extratropical
120hr VT 01/1800z 44.0n 50.0w 40 kt...extratropical

[Thunder44]

In comparison to the previous advisory track prediction at days
4-5...the official forecast track has been slowed and shifted a
little southward. This is because the global model guidance is now
suggesting that Jeanne's extratropical remnant might not accelerate
east-northeastward to the south of the Canadian Maritimes as
earlier indicated. It is quite possible that the system will
partially cut off from the main westerlies...slow somewhat...and
start moving more southward near the end of the forecast period.

Could it do another Ivan?

[GNWeather]

12EC and 12Z GGEM seem to show a nice extratropical low off the New England coast. Should be far enough East to not effect anything but the shipping lanes. Have to see if it retrogrades a tad though.

[Josephine96]

Hope it doesn't do another Ivan..