Nogaps-NW carribean

[Vortex]

As we head towards October the western carribean is often a Hot spot. Unfortunately, this is often when southern florida receives many of its storms. As we look at the nogaps in 6 days it clearly represents a pattern in the W carribean that is typical. That is increased convection and lowering pressures. About the only spot in Florida not to receive any effects or very minimal from all 4 storms is the Florida Keys and Miami. Before we close the books in '04 I'd bet this area will no longer be able to claim that title--It is what it is but I do think given the set-up and very high oceanic heat content across the wester/nw carribean we will likely see another hurricane this year.

[CourierPR]

Vortex, you are so right. Our luck here on the lower southeast coast won't hold out forever.

[wjs3]

Vortex:

See Redorangeglow's post below on October development. Would be interested in your thoughts. I think development is only half the battle...I wonder what the pattern is going to be though--more like August, with troughiness that brought Charley up and out, or more ridging as we've seen with frances, Ivan, Jeanne

More ridging could mean more w/nw. More "normal" troughiness would yes, mean more trouble for FLA.