Jeanne: Florida Landfall Increasingly Likely

[donsutherland1]

At 11:50 pm Saturday night, Hurricane Jeanne became the season's third major hurricane to make landfall. She came ashore just to the east of Stuart, FL with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph.

The National Hurricane Center issued the following statement at midnight:

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JEANNE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1200 AM EDT SUN SEP 26 2004

AROUND 1150 PM EDT SATURDAY...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JEANNE MADE LANDFALL NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF HUTCHINSON ISLAND JUST EAST OF STUART FLORIDA...NEAR LATITUDE 27.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.2 WEST.

RECENT OBSERVATIONS FROM THE STEPPED-FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER INSTRUMENT ONBOARD A NOAA P-3 RESEARCH AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT JEANNE WAS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE AT LANDFALL...WITH MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 120 MPH.

FORECASTER PASCH/FRANKLIN

Track Verifications:

Estimated Track from 9/25 8 pm:
27.2N 80.0W Landfall very close to Stuart, Florida Actual: 27.2N 80.0W
30.0N 83.2W

Estimated Track from Friday (9/24) Night:

26.5N 75.0W Actual: 26.5N 75.0W
26.5N 77.5W Actual: 26.6N 77.5W
27.0N 80.0W Actual: 27.2N 80.0W
30.0N 82.0W

Briefly, it should be noted that the idea for landfall near 27.0N 80.0W was initially estimated just before 7 pm on Thursday night. Thus, the estimate made approximately 54 hours ago was off by 14 miles.

[donsutherland1]

From the radar images and Jeanne's continued trajectory, I believe that Jeanne will briefly move over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and then make a second landfall probably along the Panhandle.

It's quite amazing how the situation turned out with the idea of 9/14:

Overall, I place stronger odds on Jeanne crossing Florida into the Gulf of Mexico.

Also, I believe Jeanne will probably approach but probably not reach the westernmost limit of the bounds that I earlier provided:

At this time, my thinking remains that Jeanne could get as far west as 81.5W to 84.5W. Consequently, there is a possibility that Jeanne could cross the Florida Peninsula and briefly move out over the eastern Gulf of Mexico prior to making a second landfall over the Florida Peninsula.

Where I am unhappy with my ideas is that I have had to consistently revise the 30.0N position westward. Apparently--and this bias also occurred early on with Hurricane Ivan--I was too quick with the storm's turn.

At this point, I'm expecting Jeanne to pass close to 30.0N 83.7W

The track to landfall near Stuart turned out very well (14 miles off from 54 hours out and on the location from 8 pm last night).

[donsutherland1]

At 5 pm, Tropical Storm Jeanne was centered at 28.8N 82.6W and heading generally to the northwest. She continues a gradual turn more to the north in her recurvature. At the same time her top sustained winds have fallen to 65 mph.

The final estimate for her position at 30.0N is 30.0N 83.4W.

[donsutherland1]

At 8 pm, Jeanne was centered at 29.4N 82.7W and has been tracking nearly due north for the past 3 hours. I believe a general north-northwest to north track will continue for the next few hours as Jeanne continues her slow recurvature.

Therefore, based on this latest information, it now appears more than likely that her 30.0N position will come out to be around 30.0N 82.9W.

[Brent]

WOW... great stuff Don.

[donsutherland1]

Thanks, Brent.

[Sanibel]

This post was a near perfect bullseye from 2 days out.


Credit to you...

[donsutherland1]

Thanks very much, Sanibel.

[donsutherland1]

The following are my observations from having forecasted Hurricane Jeanne over almost two weeks’ time:

• Studying past hurricanes/tropical storms and then examining the synoptic situation for those that took various tracks added significant value in helping me determine which model solutions to accept or reject. This data also led me to conclude that Jeanne’s farthest extent west would range between 81.5W to 84.5W. In the end, Jeanne got as far west as 83.9W (9/27 15z).

• Such an approach also proved helpful in defining an approximate landfall location that was 14 miles off from the actual landfall point almost 54 hours in advance, as it led me to strongly favor only a limited selection of model guidance. The same approach yielded a position for Hurricane Ivan’s landfall that was off by 12 miles some 48 hours prior to landfall.

• The European Model did extremely well with regard to timing Ivan’s loop (from 4 days out) and in laying out the larger synoptic situation, particularly with regard to the ridge that largely determined Jeanne’s course.

• As I had done with Hurricane Ivan, I posted the results for the last position (30.0N) each time new data came in. While the kind of oscillations one saw (as far west as 83.7W this morning and a steady shift back to 82.9W this evening) actually occurred throughout the duration of Jeanne’s trek but were not posted, I now believe that such frequent posting based on each position does not add value. In fact, it takes away value given that outcomes could be distorted by the impact of wobbles.

In the future, I won’t post based on each position toward the end of a Hurricane’s track but rather will only post when significant changes warrant such posts, as had been done with regard to Jeanne through 80.0W.

Had I avoided posting the coordinates that appeared likely with the new information on Jeanne’s position, one would only have seen the 30.0N 82.0W, 30.0N 83.2W and finally 30.0N 82.9W positions.

Track Verifications:

Last Estimated Position for 30.0N on Sunday (9/26) 8 pm:
30.0N 83.1W; Actual: 30.0N 82.8W; Error: 18 miles

Estimated Track from 9/25 8 pm:
27.2N 80.0W Landfall very close to Stuart, Florida; Actual: 27.2N 80.0W; Error: None
30.0N 83.2W; Actual: 30.0N 83.1W; Error: 6 miles

Estimated Track from Friday (9/24) Night:

26.5N 75.0W; Actual: 26.5N 75.0W; Error: None
26.5N 77.5W; Actual: 26.6N 77.5W; Error: 7 miles
27.0N 80.0W; Actual: 27.2N 80.0W; Error: 14 miles
30.0N 82.0W; Actual: 30.0N 83.1W; Error 66 miles

Note: Just before Jeanne wobbled more to the west, she had reached 29.9N 82.8W, which was respectively 9 miles from last night’s estimate for 30.0N, 25 miles from Saturday night’s estimate, and 48 miles from Friday night’s estimate. However, for purposes of conservatism, I use the larger error as depicted above.

[tronbunny]

Wow!
Good work.

[donsutherland1]

Thanks, Tronbunny.