Cape Verede season coming to a close....

[MGC]

And what a Cape Verde season it has been. Danielle, Frances, Ivan, Karl and Lisa have formed in the Cape Verde region. Africa appears to be drying up with only a few weak waves over the continent. Time to start looking towards the NW Caribbean in October and November......MGC

[Scorpion]

Yep. Wow how time flies. I remember just like yesterday that after Frances the waves were coming out one after another. We may have yet to see the worst of the season.

[CourierPR]

Remember early in the season when people were lamenting the lack of activity?

[caribepr]

Is the fat lady singing??? We hope so!

[Stormsfury]

Unfortunately, I saw the CV season being this active again back in December of last year ... the atmospheric signals strongly suggested such, but never in my worse fears could anyone have told me that Florida and locations in the Southeast would have been repeatedly struck time and time again, in such a short period of time ...

I knew that the storms this year overall would also be much better developed systems b/c of the deeper and more true tropical systems (and am kicking myself for NOT upping the amount of majors) ...

Hopefully, I'll be right that the hurricane season this year will shut off early (by about late October) ...

SF

[Weathermaster]

I think the Cape Verde season have not ended. We will se another impulse next week with at least one more system coming from there.

[SouthernWx]

My area of concern now shifts to the western Caribbean....and the current TCHP chart is as potent as it was before Ivan passed through.

We've already witnessed an incredible and bizarre hurricane season....including the first landfalling September major hurricane on the Florida peninsula since Betsy....39 years ago. The last major October landfalling hurricane in southern Florida occurred in 1950. If I lived in south Florida, I'd keep my eyes on the area south of Cuba and Jamaica....and hope for an early barrage of Arctic cold fronts and a lot of shear (i.e.- which would lead to an early end to the hurricane season).

FYI- someone emailed me earlier today stating "no major hurricanes had ever hit south Florida in October". Here's the facts on south Florida's October hurricane climatology...

Major landfalling Florida peninsula hurricanes in October since 1845:

Oct 1846...cat-4/5...Key West and Tampa to Cedar Key (Key West was innundated by a 15' storm surge)


Oct 1848...cat-3...Tampa Bay (occurred only three weeks after a borderline cat-3/4 hurricane in the same area)


Oct 1873...cat-3...Fort Myers (produced a 14' storm surge at Punta Rassa)


Oct 1898...cat-4...Fernandina Beach (struck near Cumberland Island Georgia, but severe damage occurred north and east of Jacksonville)


Oct 1906...cat-3...Keys and Miami (many died as 120-125 mph cane moved NE through the Keys and directly over Miami/ Fort Lauderdale)


Oct 1909...cat-3...Fla Keys
(120 mph cat-3 from Key West to Key Largo...toppled Key West and Sand Key lighthouse)


Oct 1910...cat-3...Key West and Naples
(moved north from Cuba and looped west of Key West then moved NNE near Key West and into peninsula in Naples/
Marco Island area; destroyed new Key West lighthouse and killed keeper and her family)


Oct 1921...cat-2/3...Tampa Bay
(borderline cat-2/3 but listed by NHC as 952 mb/ 100 kt hurricane.....10-12' surge at Tampa...moved across peninsula from Tarpon Springs to New Smyrna Beach)


Oct 1944...cat-3....Sarasota/ Fort Myers
(very large but weakening cat-3...was near cat-5 at Havana where hundreds died....115-120 mph as it passed into Florida near Venice then NNE across the peninsula toward Jacksonville...a 12' surge and much damage occurred in Jacksonville-St Augustine area)


Oct 1950...cat-3...Miami/ Fort Lauderdale
(hurricane "King"...small but intense...produced 122 mph winds in downtown Miami with peak gust of 150 mph. Also a 138 mph gust recorded in Fort Lauderdale)


King was the last October major to impact the Florida peninsula....54 years ago, but history doesn't lie. Ten major landfalling October hurricanes occurred in a 159 year period....even with the current half-century lull, that's a return period of once every 16 years; so it's almost inevitable another one will occur soon (hopefully NOT in October 2004).

[MWatkins]

2 things...

MGC...100% agreement at this point the CV season is over. Thank God for that.

Perry...right on the $...of course there is nothing at all to suggest that this is the year...but as one lull is clearly over with...you've pointed out some excellent detail on another. We said after Frances that the season wasn't over...and of course who could have forseen Ivan and Jeanne...but still. Beleaguered is an understatement.

Good work.

MW

[StrongWind]

King was the last October major to impact the Florida peninsula....54 years ago, but history doesn't lie. Ten major landfalling October hurricanes occurred in a 159 year period....even with the current half-century lull, that's a return period of once every 16 years; so it's almost inevitable another one will occur soon (hopefully NOT in October 2004).

And if one considers just the 104 years before 1950 as "normal" then you have a rate of about 1 major every 10 years. That means we're running a deficit of about 5.5 major October hurricanes. And who said deficits were bad things?

SW

[alicia-w]

What is it that makes folks think the CV season is over?Trying to learn something here...) Is there some climatological event/shift, etc? Thanks ahead of time for any constructive replies.

[ColdFront77]

I believe the Cape Verde Season is August 15th through September 15th. Which of course doesn't mean there isn't development some years in late September through November from the Cape Verde Islands. Climatologically/statistically speaking they are reductions in development in this portion of the Atlantic Basin.

[Stormsfury]

Time will tell but in regards to Florida, Stephen King, George Lucas, Wes Craven, Spielberg, etc. couldn't write a more horrific story than what's happened this year in Florida with Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne ...

SF

[tronbunny]

<snip>

Oct 1950...cat-3...Miami/ Fort Lauderdale
(hurricane "King"...small but intense...produced 122 mph winds in downtown Miami with peak gust of 150 mph. Also a 138 mph gust recorded in Fort Lauderdale)
<snip>

King literally rode right between "big" and "little" lakes Toho.
That would be over my house...
No, please say history cannot repeat, now.
(but then Jeanne followed Frances)

[mascpa]

I would agree that the CV season has come to a close. And not a moment too soon. I'm a hurricane junkie but I've had more than enough in the last 4 - 6 weeks! Bring on the cooler temperatures!

[Downdraft]

Changes in the westerlies and the number of troughs (fronts) that penetrate this time of year virtually preclude a tropical system from coming all the way across from now till the end of hurricane season. That's NOT to say it can't happen but the odds are so large against it that we can say the Cape Verdes season is over. Look for development now in the western Caribbean, Bay of Campeche and GOM.

[CourierPR]

Downdraft, you are correct, and look at what the 12z NOGAPS shows in the SW Caribbean late in the week.

[dhweather]

At least we all feel the CV season is over.

[tronbunny]

not our local news media...
http://www.wftv.com/news/3764137/detail.html

[Brent]

What is it that makes folks think the CV season is over?Trying to learn something here...) Is there some climatological event/shift, etc? Thanks ahead of time for any constructive replies.

The conditions become unfavorable and the water temperatures become too cold for development. Happens every year in Late September/Early October.

[ColdFront77]

I believe upper level wind shear increases off the western Africa coast in October and November, as well.