WILL FLORIDA SEE ANOTHER TROPICAL SYSTEM THIS SEASON?

Scorpion · #2 Postby **Scorpion** » Mon Sep 27, 2004 7:34 am

It is likely. October is 31 days long.

Sean in New Orleans · #3 Postby **Sean in New Orleans** » Mon Sep 27, 2004 7:41 am

The chances of Florida seeing a tropical system in October are higher than in September, so in answering your question--It is LIKELY that Florida will see another system--probably a hurricane.

#4 Postby **jlauderdal** » Mon Sep 27, 2004 8:18 am

Sean in New Orleans wrote:The chances of Florida seeing a tropical system in October are higher than in September, so in answering your question--It is LIKELY that Florida will see another system--probably a hurricane.

yes..probably a carriben system that is a super soaker..might not be a cane but a tropicl system is very possible

#5 Postby **tronbunny** » Mon Sep 27, 2004 8:21 am

I'm doubful that it will..
What are the odds?
Plus I think a lot of the fuel has been depleted.

x-y-no · #6 Postby **x-y-no** » Mon Sep 27, 2004 8:24 am

I give us a little bit over a 50/50 chance, given the pattern this year.

#7 Postby **Stormcenter** » Mon Sep 27, 2004 8:26 am

Scorpion · #8 Postby **Scorpion** » Mon Sep 27, 2004 8:38 am

Remember 98 and 95?? Storms were forming far into October and November. The fuel should have been depleted after so many storms back in 98, but nope Mitch happened.

CourierPR · #9 Postby **CourierPR** » Mon Sep 27, 2004 8:51 am

The fuel has not been depleted. There is plenty of warm water in the NW Caribbean and that is where attention turns as we approach October.

#10 Postby **tronbunny** » Mon Sep 27, 2004 9:04 am

I can only hope that none come here!

Website · #11 Postby **Brent** » Mon Sep 27, 2004 9:06 am

The chances are high because the storms typically form in the Western Caribbean or Southeastern Gulf and then move North to NE towards Florida.

WEATHER53 · #12 Postby **WEATHER53** » Mon Sep 27, 2004 9:08 am

Being that this is an extraordinarily untypical season I suggest an untypical result and that is no tropical systems in October. Also, the activity off North Carolina coast is either an extreme feeder band or some energy transfer?

stormie · #13 Postby **stormie** » Mon Sep 27, 2004 9:30 am

But aren't we reaching the end of the peak of hurricane season? In the next couple of weeks? I was under the impressions that things would be expected to quiet down then, relatively speaking.

Orlando_wx · #14 Postby **Orlando_wx** » Mon Sep 27, 2004 9:43 am

I hope not 3 is enough for orlando.

still cleaning from the last two hurricanes.

John

#15 Postby **Roxy** » Mon Sep 27, 2004 9:47 am

not sure, my crystal ball is broken.

#16 Postby **Canelaw99** » Mon Sep 27, 2004 9:57 am

stormie wrote:But aren't we reaching the end of the peak of hurricane season? In the next couple of weeks? I was under the impressions that things would be expected to quiet down then, relatively speaking.

Unfortunately, no. Typically this time period we're in is the peak for the storms developing off Africa and in the Atlantic. However, October is usually the peak for storms developing closer to us, in the GOM and Caribbean. Additionally, October is the peak time for S. FL (meaning Dade, Broward, and the Keys primarily) to be hit with storms. These storms are usually mostly rain events (i.e., Hurricane Irene in 1999), as opposed to the high wind, but they can still cause lots of damage.

So, to answer the original post, it's highly likely that FL will see another storm this season, as we have 2 whole months yet to go ('cane season officially ends Nov. 30).

ColinD · #17 Postby **ColinD** » Mon Sep 27, 2004 10:36 am

Dr. Gray's latest stated that "We are now calling for a slightly below-average October with an NTC of about 80 percent of the climatological average (Table 8). In round numbers, we are forecasting 3 named storms, 1 hurricane, 0 intense hurricanes and an NTC of 15 for October. This forecast of below-average October activity is due primarily to the very warm values of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the Niño 4 and Niño 3.4 regions of the equatorial Pacific. Warmth in these regions has been shown to reduce Atlantic basin late-season tropical cyclone activity."

Oct. 2004 landfall Probability
Named Storm (29%) 26%
Hurricane (15%) 15%
Intense Hurricane (6%) 5%

#18 Postby **tronbunny** » Mon Sep 27, 2004 11:00 am

yea for Dr. Gray.
I would have hoped that the ENSO activity would help.
Let's see if it affects the rest of this season and how the winter patterns develop.
Anyone have any data as to how winter effects summer patterns, since we hear that high hurricane summers beget cold winters.

#19 Postby **mascpa** » Mon Sep 27, 2004 11:15 am

God I hope not.

ColdFront77 · #20 Postby **ColdFront77** » Mon Sep 27, 2004 11:32 am

Scorpion wrote:Remember 98 and 95?? Storms were forming far into October and November.
The fuel should have been depleted after so many storms back in 98, but nope Mitch happened.

We sure did...

In September and October 1995, we saw Hurricane Noel, Hurricane Opal, Tropical Storm Pablo, Hurricane
Roxanne, Tropical Storm Sebastien and Hurricane Tanya form in the Atlantic Basin.

In September and October 1998, the Atlantic Basin had Hurricane Jeanne, Karl, Lisa, Mitch and Nicole.

WILL FLORIDA SEE ANOTHER TROPICAL SYSTEM THIS SEASON?

WILL FLORIDA SEE ANOTHER TROPICAL SYSTEM THIS SEASON?

Who is online