Home Grown Storm

[TS Zack]

Starting to get in the point in the season where you get these storms pop-up off the coast and come inland overnight which usually wreck havoc. One of these may be coming in the upcoming days in the GOM. My local Met has noticed it also and says this:

Well, this is a shot in the dark, but I'm seeing some trends in the overall pattern that suggest in the coming weeks we may need to be looking to the Gulf for development closer to home. As we get later in the season, we tend to see this type of thing, so it wouldn't surprise me at all.

What I have been noticing is that the models seem to want to lower the pressures in the western Caribbean about a week from now and hint at some convection flaring up down there. Now this could be nothing at all, or it may be a sign of things to come. Who knows? But I think over the next few weeks any tropical threats that may develop will probably come from the south. We'll see.

Something to watch in the coming days!

[BillC]

I hate to post this because it will no doubt produce some anti Joe Bastardi (AccuWeather meteorologist) rants, but I'll press on regardless. JB has been talking about home grown mischief in the southern Gulf later this week for at least a week now. This morning he added the NW Caribbean to the mix. My point is that you have some high powered (in my opinion) company in your thinking.

[Duffy]

you won't hear it from me, i LOVE JB, i wish people would get off his case! He's funny, he's entertaining, i like that!

[BillC]

... and though he doesn't get any credit for it, JB called the Ivan recurve and landfall in the western Gulf before it ever started (and while many claimed he was being hysterical). I love the fact that for years he has been willing to be pro-active and daring in his forecasts ... and while sometimes he's wrong, so, too, is the super conservative NHC.

[CourierPR]

J B is very good at recognizing long range global weather patterns that will create conditions conducive to tropical development. He is no crackpot.

[tronbunny]

No complaints about JB.
He does his job and does it well.
He is paid to make noise about the weather!

He's not perfect, and neither is the NHC.

But for professionalism, and accuracy this year..
Derek Ortt and the NWHHC get my vote!

[WeatherNLU]

J B is very good at recognizing long range global weather patterns that will create conditions conducive to tropical development. He is no crackpot.

Exactly. You can question his forecasting ability all day long, cause he's been off this year, and off badly at times, but there is one thing that you cannot call into question with Joe, and that is pattern recognition and the ability to see "hot spots" for storm development.

[GalvestonDuck]

Back to topic -- anyone else see the possibility of a GOM storm brewing. What about that thought of the system that was Ivan coming back again?

[amawea]

What Duffy and CourierPR said. I like JB. He's daring in his long range forecast and willing to stick his neck out where no one else will. Also, I think he's thebest long range winter forecaster around.
I agree that the gulf will be an area of interest now. It usually picks up around now when the Atlantic quites down a little.
Amawea