Nothing behind Jeanne...BUT LOOK SOUTH...

DAVE440 · #1 Postby **DAVE440** » Sun Sep 26, 2004 10:53 pm

Ok....Im quite the amateur...if that... and Fl has certainly been thru enough (dodged the bullet 4 X here in Ft Laud luckily)
but... take a look to the South...

Looks like some disorganized showers off S.America have gotten better organized. Actually two blobs popped up out of that mess of showers. Hope I'm seeing things and this is nothing....

Still IR Satellite
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg

Loop of same
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir4-loop.html

Visible loop

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-vis-loop.html

Sanibel · #2 Postby **Sanibel** » Sun Sep 26, 2004 11:56 pm

Probably just some deep Amazonian ITCZ jumping offshore - but this is the time and those are the colors. See if it's there tomorrow...

Probably nobody answered this because they literally have hurricane fatigue...

#3 Postby **Hurricanehink** » Mon Sep 27, 2004 6:39 am

Yea, nice now, but wait a little time...

Sanibel · #4 Postby **Sanibel** » Mon Sep 27, 2004 11:19 am

Diurnal die-off - but still some remnant wave material lingering.

I think it will amount to nothing, but should be watched until it disappears. See if it re-fires tonight...

CourierPR · #5 Postby **CourierPR** » Mon Sep 27, 2004 12:54 pm

NOGAPS shows development down there late in the week.

x-y-no · #6 Postby **x-y-no** » Mon Sep 27, 2004 1:15 pm

There's a dip in the upper-level stream just north of the lewward islands which is about to cut off and back WSW.

That should suppress development for the next few days in the Caribbean. Conditions look more favorable in the 5 to 7 day timeframe, though.

DAVE440 · #7 Postby **DAVE440** » Mon Sep 27, 2004 2:47 pm

Good news. Those 2 areas of convection have dissipated today on satellite. There is some more Tstorm activity over land and exiting the
region but doesn't look anywhere near as organized as what "i thought" might be getting together yesterday. I even saw what appeared to be some outflow in one of those systems but...it's all gone now ....FORTUNATELY!!

There is still a broad area of showers that might organize but right now does not appear to not have any circulation and movement is to the west.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/VIS/20.jpg

#8 Postby **mascpa** » Mon Sep 27, 2004 2:50 pm

What's that area of clouds and thunderstorms just off the Florida east coast?

DAVE440 · #9 Postby **DAVE440** » Mon Sep 27, 2004 2:55 pm

Thats a piece of Jeannes tail

http://www.intellicast.com/Local/USNationalStd.asp?loc=usa&seg=LocalWeather&prodgrp=SatelliteImagery&product=UnitedStatesLoop&prodnav=none

CourierPR · #10 Postby **CourierPR** » Mon Sep 27, 2004 3:17 pm

Dave, I just looked at the AccuWeather infrared view of the Caribbean, and there is still a rather large mass of convection over the water down there. Let's see what happens after it sits and cooks for a few days.

CourierPR · #11 Postby **CourierPR** » Mon Sep 27, 2004 3:54 pm

That upper level low referred to by x-y-no will serve to ventilate the system in the Caribbean, according to AccuWeather's Joe Bastardi.

#12 Postby **Windy** » Mon Sep 27, 2004 4:16 pm

CourierPR wrote:Dave, I just looked at the AccuWeather infrared view of the Caribbean, and there is still a rather large mass of convection over the water down there. Let's see what happens after it sits and cooks for a few days.

If it forms anything, it will be named "Ivan"... :wink:

x-y-no · #13 Postby **x-y-no** » Mon Sep 27, 2004 4:46 pm

CourierPR wrote:That upper level low referred to by x-y-no will serve to ventilate the system in the Caribbean, according to AccuWeather's Joe Bastardi.

I thought about that, and it's possible if it doesn't move as far as I expect it to, or if it hold together and then precedes the developing low NW. But I wasn't really looking that far ahead, since the motion of these things is even harder to anticipate than the motion of low-level circulations. I was merely referring to its effect over the next four or five days.

Sanibel · #14 Postby **Sanibel** » Mon Sep 27, 2004 5:14 pm

I've viewed several loops. The area in question is possibly centered near Costa Rica with the wave axis being alligned west-east along the convection line.

A view of the surface motion off the Colombian Pacific coast shows there to be a real surface feature associated with this activity. If you look you will see west to east flowing surface counter-movement in the Pacific being drawn towards the Costa Rican center.

The synoptic above shows the already-mentioned plunging Antilles ULL along with a dominating trough-like boundary reaching up and into Jeanne. If I am reading this synoptic correctly it could be possible that the lax overhead over the disturbance could allow a north drift towards the weakness left behind by Jeanne.

Therefore, the disturbance's close proximity to Central America may not be as meaningful as usual with the normal EPAC flow.

This should be watched overnight for deep flaring and organization...

#15 Postby **HurricaneQueen** » Mon Sep 27, 2004 5:18 pm

Thats a piece of Jeannes tail

And we know what happened with Ivan's tail!!!

Loved the comment and "its name will be Ivan"!!!

Guess I'm getting a little bunch drunk now that things have let up here.

Lynn

Sanibel · #16 Postby **Sanibel** » Mon Sep 27, 2004 5:22 pm

Indulge me - I just got 3 symbols after my 500th post, so I can't resist doing this:

TD #21 HAS STRENGTHENED IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AS EXPECTED. IT IS NOW TROPICAL STORM SANIBEL WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40MPH AND GUSTS TO 50MPH. PRESSURE AT 1006 MILLIBARS. A WEST COURSE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TOWARDS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AS THE 19TH NAMED STORM OF THE 2004 SEASON PROGRESSES WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS. ETC ETC ETC.

#17 Postby **tronbunny** » Mon Sep 27, 2004 5:52 pm

Sanibel wrote:Indulge me - I just got 3 symbols after my 500th post, so I can't resist doing this:

Consider yourself indulged....
I guess I'm full of myself today too.
Congrats.

Sanibel · #18 Postby **Sanibel** » Mon Sep 27, 2004 9:24 pm

Not sure if there is anything there. Now it looks like ITCZ fluff. See if it re-fires...

Sometimes Colombia will keep feeding that red burst convection material one after the other until one takes...

Yankeegirl · #19 Postby **Yankeegirl** » Mon Sep 27, 2004 10:59 pm

I think that every storm that forms from this point on should be named Ivan.... at least till the end of the season... make it more interesting...

Sanibel · #20 Postby **Sanibel** » Tue Sep 28, 2004 12:52 am

Ran a shortwave of the SW Caribbean wave. I believe one of the surface centers has drifted west and into Central America on its way to the Pacific. We are talking weak pulses here not single disturbances.

As happens here in this situation the Amazonian ITCZ flow continues to send new convection pulses into the general Low pressure pocket. Another has drifted off Colombia and looks to be grabbing a second center.

This wave is 50-50 or less from the looks of it. However this talk of NOGAPS and a lingering Low pressure area in good climatology lends worth to a possible persisting feature.

As always, we'll see if it does another diurnal improvement tomorrow...

Nothing behind Jeanne...BUT LOOK SOUTH...

Nothing behind Jeanne...BUT LOOK SOUTH...

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