Miami TV met won't show NHC 5-day track forecast

[KeyLargoDave]

Roland Steadham, NBC6 Chief Met, says he won't show the 5-day cone of error anymore. Read the story by the Reporter newspaper:

http://www.upperkeysreporter.com/articles/2004/09/24/news/news02.txt

[tronbunny]

not a bad idea..
they have always said that it's experimental.
The NHC has been "forced" to publish it.

[greeng13]

i'll stick with intuition and looking at the 3 day...i mean 1 day...from now on

[Ixolib]

Roland Steadham, NBC6 Chief Met, says he won't show the 5-day cone of error anymore. Read the story by the Reporter newspaper:

http://www.upperkeysreporter.com/articles/2004/09/24/news/news02.txt

I'm inclined to agree. Any product that professes to provide a "reasonable" picture of landfall, especially FIVE DAYS OUT, should perhaps be removed from the public eye. My vote is to keep with the three-day cone and REMOVE the line. Anything beyond has generally proven to be reletively unstable for planning/evacuation purposes.

[Scorpion]

I disagree. I believe the 5 day forecast is a reasonable forecast of the general area where the hurricane might be in 5 days. I never pay attention to that line. It gets people in the general area more alert so they can pay attention to it more. Also, since the cone of error is so big, it will almost always go within that cone in 5 days.

[Volusia Mike]

The five day is only a planning tool and should be utilized as such. I look at the five day, and say, "OK, if this comes to past, what actions do I need to be considering now and what equipment, staffing, and such do I need to be considering. If you use it in that light, I think it is an excellent tool, but, it is just that, a tool.

Michael

[jlauderdal]

Roland Steadham, NBC6 Chief Met, says he won't show the 5-day cone of error anymore. Read the story by the Reporter newspaper:

http://www.upperkeysreporter.com/articles/2004/09/24/news/news02.txt

yep..i posted severa times about this in the last few weeks. i think its a bad idea not to let the viewers see it.

[sfwx]

The five day forecast saves lives. Period.

Eric

[Jevo]

Thats almost like saying i can fire a missle at a group of 1,000,000 people and the chances are it wont hit you but i bet youd be running scared just in case

[calidoug]

A stupid solution.

What would be better than simply not showing the 5-day?

It's obvious.

Show the 5-day cone, and NOT the "track" within it.

[ericinmia]

Show it all...

SIMPLY remove the line!
-Eric

[MGC]

Well the 3 day track is prone to errors also so should it be made available? Like one of our TV mets says it is good to be under the 5 day track because it probably won't come to pass. The idea of the 5 and 3 day tracks are to alert the people of a possible hurricane.....MGC

[wxman57]

We went to a 5-day track back in 1999 with Floyd, long before the NHC was even considering a 5-day track. However, we told our customers that we would only issue a 5-day track (vs. standard 3-day) when we had a high degree of confidence in the general path of a storm. There's no way I'd want to issue a 5-day track on a storm like Keith a few years ago that was stalled near the Yucatan, or even a storm like Ivan or Fances this year when we just didn't have much confidence beyond 72 hours. We knew that Ivan would pass south of Jamaica and head toward western Cuba (72hr forecast), but we didn't have much confidence in the track after then.

Unfortunately, with the NHC going 5-days, we no longer have the option of NOT issuing a 5-day track. Our customers really notice when we adjust the 120hr point by a tiny amount one way or the other. I'd rather not have to indicate a landfall point until I'm confident where a storm is going, but we have to now.

Last year at the NHC and AMS conferences, the NHC was really pleased with how the 5-day track worked with a well-behaved storm like Isabel. I wonder what they'll say at this year's conference? The 96 and 120 hr forecasts have not been so good in 2004.

[Guest]

It amazes me how lame the meteorlogical community has become theses days. The three day cone is more than sufficient and has always worked well for all of us. We only need 72 hrs to plan at the most. The five day was intended for the Navy, so let the Navy use it. I can tell from personal experience, the five day causes unnecessary disruption of peoples lives, job performance and financially can unnecessarily cause individuals living week to week to purchase goods and use money they could not otherwise afford to spend. So be responsible, lets go back to what works. Save a lot of us the unnecessary stress.

[mf_dolphin]

If used properly the 5 day forecast is fime. The problem has been created by the media through improper use of it. They won't take the time to explain it and yet they show it. Now who's fault is that?

[Guest]

The five day forecast saves lives. Period.

Eric

Yep..If it wasnt for the ever popular 5 day forecast people would get caught napping & or frolicking on the beach right.

[Ixolib]

If used properly the 5 day forecast is fime. The problem has been created by the media through improper use of it. They won't take the time to explain it and yet they show it. Now who's fault is that?

But, the media's job is to hype - they owe no official allegence to anyone for factual reporting. Remember the first gulf war with CNN's Bernnie ducking under a desk in Baghdad? Yeah, the airstrike was real, but CNN didn't have to have their News Anchor at ground zero giving the play-by-play. Since we all know how the media operates, the NHC ought to realize that as well and adjust accordingly. If it's here to stay, maybe just taking the line out would serve the best purpose for the five-day.

[CentralFloridaGal]

I like being armed with as much information as possible in advance.

Hrm. Steadham made this decision on behalf of all his viewers?

Why not go all the way then, and rely only on the reactions of wildlife around us...

[Ixolib]

I like being armed with as much information as possible in advance.

Hrm. Steadham made this decision on behalf of all his viewers?

Why not go all the way then, and rely only on the reactions of wildlife around us...

Hmmmm.... well, somebody in our ancestery must have done just that, else we might not be here today!

Seriously, though, I belive in using technology to it's fullest, but only when it is providing a high degree of accuracy. I mean, if my bank used the same mindset for maintaining my account, I'd be some kind of upset!! "We're not really sure how much interest you'll earn in five days, but check back in three days and we may be closer to a reasonable estimate - give or take $200."

[Guest]

I have mixed emotions on this 5 day forecast.

On the the one hand it gets hyped & makes the hurricane seem closer than what it really is & on the other hand as someone stated earier its good to have as mich info as possible on a particular hurricane.

I will say this though, Roland Steadham the MET in question is the worst met to rely on in the South Fla area.

While Jeanne was starting to make here loop he was non-chalantly dismissing her out to sea.