hurricanetrack wrote:I for one believe that August and September will be quite active. However, I think it will be hard to attain 14 named storms and 8 hurricanes at this point. That is fine with me- it's not the overall numbers, it's WHERE they go that interests me- and everyone else, I'm sure. If we end up with 11 named storms and maybe 6 hurricanes- and 3 of them smash into the US- then we'll all be out of breath come November. I just think we are going to cram it all in to August and September with a little action up until October 15th or so. I have little science to back this up- just my gut feeling. However, based on what I know about water temps and how they affect ridges/troffs, I would not be surprised to see a hurricane hit the Southeast before it's all said and done. With all that warm water off New England and the Canadian Maratimes- the ridge should have a little extra "umph" for it this time around. But that's assuming I even know what I'm talking about there.
One thing is for sure- when a hurricane, or tropical storm, hits the U.S. this year- I'll be there to gather as much data and images as I possibly can. It's such an incredible line- wanting to see a hurricane in person- but not wanting to see lives ruined or lost. That's why I go out there- to document, observe and report- then I tell that story to thousands of people the next year in hopes of getting them ready for THEIR next hurricane.
Anyhow- I am getting anxious at this time of year too. I only hope it won't be long. We've got a lot of work to do with my team- and we cannot do it without a hurricane making landfall. At least THAT is not my fault- I don't control the hurricanes, they control me.
I used scientific basis on my active number prognosis, and Mark used his "gut feeling" ... (I highlighted the most important parts of his thoughts, and how true they turned out to be) ...
Mark, you have one hell of a gut feeling ... on many accounts. The UMMPH of the ridge has been continuously underprogged by model guidance time and time again ... we saw this with Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne ...
I'm still kicking myself for NOT going higher on the number of majors, but so far, right on line with total storms and hurricanes. I called for truer tropical cyclones in the deeper latitudes (in the MDR) and that has so far occurred, active CV season, that has occurred ...
