More stories about Hurricane Ivan

[Frank P]

excellent article... as noted data still being collected on Ivan....

thanks for the link

[PTPatrick]

I agree with what has been said here...definately a low end cat 4 at landfall. Just because the proper instruments were not at the right place at the right time does NOT mean that the winds didnt happen. I have been in that area since the storm and all I can say it is seems veyr reminicent of picture I have seen of Hugo. Heck I live 60 miles WEST of where this storm went in and the wind damage here in pascagoula was actually WORSE than that of hurricane George, which hit us HEAD ON with the eastern eye wall. Sure we had more flooding damage then. But that was a cat 2 storm....what I have seen of Ivan damn sure aint a cat 2, and highly doubtful anything less than a borderline 3/4. I also have family that lived in Mobile for Fredric, and they now live in Pensacola, and they say that while Mobile got of easy this time...Pensacola has worse damage than what they saw with Fredric.

[Derek Ortt]

I'll stick to the hard data. Also, that 144 m.p.h. gust in Opal was declared to be an error 8 years ago in the 1997 revision of the Opal best track. If I wasnt so tired, I'd do the gradient wind calculation myself


also, didnt add this, but h-wind had 123KT for charley, 90 for frances, and 112KT for jeanne. It doesnt under-report. And also, this product is not a University of Miami product... it is a NOAA product. I'd trust the data from NOAA before any visual assessment (which I have to due to the nature of my job, no hand waiving arguments are allowed, none)

[Agua]

I agree with what has been said here...definately a low end cat 4 at landfall. Just because the proper instruments were not at the right place at the right time does NOT mean that the winds didnt happen. I have been in that area since the storm and all I can say it is seems veyr reminicent of picture I have seen of Hugo. Heck I live 60 miles WEST of where this storm went in and the wind damage here in pascagoula was actually WORSE than that of hurricane George, which hit us HEAD ON with the eastern eye wall.

You're kidding?!? I have not been over to 'Goula since the storm but everyone indicated that y'all came out pretty well. Also, I wasn't aware the eyewall crossed that far east. The center came precisely over OS and I thought the eastern extent of the eyewall was around fountainbleu.

[rxdoc]

Derek, you of all people should be able to step back away from the "data" and look at what is actually going on. You preach that on a routine basis with NHC relying on models too much and not seeing the big picture. There may not be many wind measurements to support a Category 4 storm. There is plenty of subjective data to support otherwise. You need both to make accurate conclusions.

[SouthernWx]

Agua, ALL of the reporting station anemometers were DESTROYED....just as happened in south Dade during Andrew.

The ASOS weather station at Pensacola airport was offline for ten days....the Pensacola NAS weather station was destroyed. Apparently the same anemometer at Hurlburt Field that recorded the 125 kt (144 mph) gust during hurricane Opal was destroyed.
I was in Mobile, Alabama....a storm-crazed 17 yr old when Frederic passed through.....I saw the damage firsthand. The Dauphin Island causeway was destroyed by Frederic's storm surge....after an anemometer on the bridge measured a 145 mph gust. Over the years, I've seen a lot of damage photos from Dauphin Island and Gulf Shores...I also saw the damage from wind and storm surge as soon as roads were cleared after the hurricane (except for Dauphin Island...no bridge, remember).

What I've seen thusfar from the Pensacola Bay to Perdido Key area caused by hurricane Ivan is WORSE than the destruction Frederic caused....IMO the sustained winds and peak gusts were STRONGER; and I've surveyed and rated hurricane and tornado wind speeds since the late 1970's (my research led the WSFO in Memphis, TN to change the Fujita rating of a Mississippi tornado several years ago, so I know what I'm talking about). Also, as I've stated, the last time I saw storm surge damage this severe was after Hugo came ashore in South Carolina fifteen years ago.

If your looking for surface winds measured by a station to rate a landfalling hurricane, you'd be making a major mistake. WHY? Hurricane Audrey killed 400 folks in Louisiana in 1957....as the 12-15' storm surge washed inland for miles. Everyone agrees it was a cat-4, even though the central pressure was 945 mb....and the highest on land wind recorded? Only 105 mph at Lake Charles.

Folks keep comparing this hurricane (Ivan) to Frederic at landfall. Does anyone know the peak sustained wind recorded at a land station during landfall on the Alabama/ Mississippi coast? I do...it was ONLY 97 mph. Frederic is still rated a 130 mph hurricane at landfall (and a central pressure of 946 mb)....was in 1979, and still is today.

[Frank P]

I live in Biloxi but was working in Moss Point at the time of Georges (International Paper).. we were in the eye in Biloxi for several hours... we never did get any wind out of the south in Biloxi... Pascagoula had some significant damage and a strong surge as well... The Chevron plant suffered extensive damage from the associated surge with Georges.... from what I saw, Pascagoula suffered extensive damage, especially along the beach front...

As noted in the article, data is still being collected on Ivan, regardless, the damage inflicted in the areas hardest hit tells me it was a hell of a major storm.... and I'm damn glad it didn't hit the MS coast... this was the first storm that I ever thought about evacuating in my life, at least getting off the front beach in Biloxi,.... and I've been on the beach for all MS storms except Camille... unfortunately I would have been better off on the beach as the house I was living in during Camille had 5 feet of water in it, and my house on the beach only got 2 feet of water in it...

[Guest]

All of you should be ashamed of your bickering. Do you really think the families of the 1500 and more dead in Hispinola and throughout the Caribbean and US care what category storm hit their area. Grow up!

[PTPatrick]

Agua...the "center" of George did go over OS...but the eyewall in fact went over Gautier and Pascagoula. And yes we did get lucky in Ivan...the damage was not bad here...BUT if you look at the true "wind" damage caused it wasnt that bad eiether. George, was a big rain maker and caused some serious surge and inland flooding. But the wind wasn't aweful. I probably mispoke to say that the wind was worse here with Ivan...but I went venture to say Georges was not a whole lot worse. I know that 10 power lines on my road were not leaning 30 degrees after Georges, and that my roof and siding held up a heck of a lot better in George. I have seen a lot of fast food signs blown out around here, and that again is something I do not recall seeing much of after George. Keep in mind I am as far southeast as in this state as it gets. I am as close to grand bay as I am pascagoula. So we recieved heavy winds here sooner and for a longer period than anywhere else in the area, and the winds significantly dropped off as you got west. Interesting to note...most of Pascagoula was without power after Ivan, while many areas in Gautier and Ocean Springs did not lose it.

[Agua]

Okay, your location east of Pascagoula (what is that? About 20 miles east?) explains a lot. That is really odd about storms. George was a strong Cat 2 (109), but the winds seemed much stronger here than with Elena, which was a 3. Yet, the surge in Biloxi Bay during Georges was not significantly greater than a tropical storm that came through a couple years ago (can't remember which one it was).

[PTPatrick]

Interesting point you made about the surges...the reason it was not high in the Bay with George is because the onshore flow was just east of there. The big surges with Georges didnt start till around Fountainblue Beach. I too recall that TS you speak of, that was Isidore. We had a big surge with that here on the bayou too. We just got sustained onshore flow a long period of time(same way with Georges, which pushed the water up 14 feet here). Georges was a storng Cat 2 indeed. And the reason they seemed stronger than Elena...they probably were. If you look back at some of the data on Elena, nothing suggests that it was anything more than a cat 2 when it actualy hit Mississippi, although NHC still has it officialy classified as a cat 3. Elena was a also a very dry, fast moving storm. And also, after thinking about some things. I forgot about a lot of the stuff I saw here after Georges...I think I was in shell shock and much of the damage didnt register with me. But I am having flashes, so to speak, of damage that I saw around Pascagoula at Georges that I did not see with Ivan. And also, I thought about it, and I think the reason some of the wind damage seems worse to me here at my house is because georges carried off the debris when the surge went out.

[Ixolib]

Okay, your location east of Pascagoula (what is that? About 20 miles east?) explains a lot. That is really odd about storms. George was a strong Cat 2 (109), but the winds seemed much stronger here than with Elena, which was a 3. Yet, the surge in Biloxi Bay during Georges was not significantly greater than a tropical storm that came through a couple years ago (can't remember which one it was).

That's correct. Here's a pic of Biloxi Bay in TS Isidore. The only reason Georges destroyed the south side of the bay (and Issy didn't) was because of Georges' persistant north/northeast winds. Tore up just about everything along Bayview Drive. But the "surge" was about the same.

[Agua]

Heh... I recall a gust that came through with Georges sometime in the early morning hours that was the most incredible thing I've ever experienced (I wasn't on the Coast for Camille). It couldn't have lasted more than 3-5 seconds, but if it had gone on for 5 minutes, I swear there would have been nothing left standing. I have no way of estimating it's strength. Strong storm.

[Ixolib]

Heh... I recall a gust that came through with Georges sometime in the early morning hours that was the most incredible thing I've ever experienced (I wasn't on the Coast for Camille). It couldn't have lasted more than 3-5 seconds, but if it had gone on for 5 minutes, I swear there would have been nothing left standing. I have no way of estimating it's strength. Strong storm.

Yeah - strong storm and LONG storm too!! For a storm to our east, Georges surely did produce a few wicked gusts. Knocked my power out for a week!!

[tallywx]

Here are photos of INLAND Alabama from Ivan, taken by NWS Mobile. These towns are at least 40 miles inland from the coast. Note: these are not photos taken of areas hit by tornados...this is pure eyewall wind damage.








One simply doesn't see that sort of foliage dessication from a cat 2 hurricane. I've never seen a cat 2 result in foliage destruction like that, especially not 40 miles inland.

[Dean4Storms]

You are right Tallywx, I've been over there and have seen the destruction in PS and surrounding area. I've been through several hurricanes, as a former firefighter in west-central Alabama I saw alot of various rated tornado damage and all as I studied and love the weather (decided to keep it as a hobby instead of a job and became an entrepreneur). I've seen homes over there with nothing much left but a foundation and a driveway all done by wind damage and noted that most all of the debris was along a fairly direct line with the wind direction with most of the surrounding tree damage either toppled or snapped off laying in the same wind driven direction, all indications of straight line winds, not tornadoes. There is no doubt in my mind that Ivan had some 140-160 mph gusts.




Ortt, don't care what a radar saw 1000+ ft. above the surface in Opal. At the surface where people actually live the wind damage was greatest from Ft. Walton Bch. to Navarre. Almost every anemometer near and just east of where Ivan came ashore was destroyed, most built to withstand 160mph winds. Eglin AFB nearly 100 miles to the east of where Ivan made landfall recorded a 123 mph wind gust and you are going to tell me that the actual eastern eyewall seen intensifying as it came ashore had NO STRONGER WINDS than this? Wind damage evidence does not lie.

[Dean4Storms]

Argue with the NWS out of Mobile, they say Ivan was stronger than Frederic and Opal and I certainly agree.........


http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mob/ivan_page/Ivan-main.htm

[Dean4Storms]

This is typical of what you see.........



http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mob/ivan_page/d ... reeze2.JPG


http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mob/ivan_page/d ... reeze3.JPG


http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mob/ivan_page/d ... eeze12.JPG

[alicia-w]

As far as the tree damage and leaf removal process.... we lost about half the leaves on our trees. All on a few. And we were about 65/70 miles east of Pensacola. I saw damage first hand at a friend's house in Cantonment. Lost 40 trees. 40! (on 2 acres). Their dormer windows appear to have been sucked out of the window frames some. They were supposedly about 3 miles from the eyewall when it passed. Their street looks like a war zone and I dont mean that metaphorically since I've actually see those too.

[Derek Ortt]

Radar showed a weakening eye wall.

My point is, as bad as Ivan was, it could have been a whole lot worse.

Now, if we can see evidence of a non hot-wire anamometer gust over 150, then the chages things entirely.

SFMR data is the most accurate reading that we have. It showed a cat 2 hurricane. The tidal surge doesn't magically dissipate, dean, and this is something you should be well aware of.

also, there is an intense debate in the scneitific community that Charley was only a ct 3 at landfall. I have voiced strong objections to this finding as every piece of data I have seen indicates a strong 4 or even a 5 at landfall for Charley