Miami TV met won't show NHC 5-day track forecast

[Guest]

I might also add that its not just with Jeanne,Steadham has this lackadaisical vibe to him that can get annoying.

[M_0331]

5 day forecast it is good because it gives a picture of what the sum of
models forecast. One can not take the forecast track as fact. Use the
cone for general planning and alert one of the cone of danger.
The five day forecast will improve in the future. I am a engineer
with a minor in statistics.
Give 5 day forecast a chance to improve as it will.
Eddie

[Orlando_wx]

If i remember correctly when NHC was talking about bringing out the 5 day forecast track didn't they say that it was in beta for a couple of years and felt very confident that is was just as reliable as the 3 day ?

John

[cswitwer]

I think the 5 day is misued by media and by viewers who haven't learned (or haven't taken the time to learn) what it means.

If we only used a 3 day, people would think, "Well, they aren't showing a track yet, so it must be really far away." And on Day 3 when the cone is released, a lot of people wouldn't see the forecast. That leaves 2 days for folks to try to prepare and leave. And I don't know about other places, but here in the south people are a little slow to get started sometimes.

[jlauderdal]

I think the 5 day is misued by media and by viewers who haven't learned (or haven't taken the time to learn) what it means.

If we only used a 3 day, people would think, "Well, they aren't showing a track yet, so it must be really far away." And on Day 3 when the cone is released, a lot of people wouldn't see the forecast. That leaves 2 days for folks to try to prepare and leave. And I don't know about other places, but here in the south people are a little slow to get started sometimes.

soputh florida basically waited until saturday mornign to get ready fro jeanne. you could give people a weeks notice and they would wait until the end.

[Robert]

Remember that we are "into" weather (hence our visits to this site). Some poeple (maybe the majority) are not. My wife will go a week without even flipping on the TV to see what the weather is going to be like.

The five day "cone" I use as a planning tool. I plan to watch the weather that night (or visit Strom2K or another site). If people use it correctly (hey, you all be aware, something might happen) it is useful. It is unuseful (and potentially harmful) when it is used for predicting a landfall point.

My opinion, keep the 5 day forcast, it will get better with time.

[Persepone]

The 5-day "cone" forecast is a good tool to give people a "heads up." As a planning tool it is invaluable, and yes, it probably does save lives. And yes, the media probably misuses it but now that it has been widely used, to go back to the three day forecast would, in fact, probably lull people into thinking that they had "more time" because they would not realize that it was now only a 3-day forecast instead of a 5-day forecast.

The comment about the person living on low income going out and spending money "unecessarily" is a little off-base, I think. I've been there and done that and it's better to have a heads-up 5 days in advance than only 3 days in advance when you are really short of money! You don't rush out to the store--but you may not make some purchase because you "might" need the money in 3 days...

I'm all for having as much time as possible to think, plan, weigh options, etc.

By the way, I've little faith in local weather reporters--which is why I found Storm2K! This board tells you a lot about what is real and what is hype and also there are people here who explain stuff from other that is frightening or puzzling to the "ordinary viewer." Amazingly, when you ask really dumb questions, you don't get rows of little smileys rolling around laughing! You get straight, informative answers. So thank you to all!

Also, having bashed my local TV station reporters, I have to admit that here in New England we have a saying that is "if you don't like the weather, wait a couple of hours and it will change." Our weather changes very quickly. If you are on the air at 5 p.m., you are working from "older" advisories--so often the TV weather reporters are "behind" because of the TV station's scheduling. After Storm 2K, I find myself watching and realizing that I'm not watching the latest track, or the latest models, etc. This is probably true elsewhere. But the 5-day cone (and I like the idea of removing the "landfall line") does give you a heads up to pay close attention to what is going on.

[drudd1]

Keep the 5-day, remove the track line and keep the cone. The problem lies with folks fixation on the line.

[Derek Ortt]

my proposal is just for the relasing of the public advisories. Those give enough information regarding preparation

[tronbunny]

my proposal is just for the relasing of the public advisories. Those give enough information regarding preparation

Then what would WE do for fun around here?

[hookemfins]

I say leave the 5 day forecast in the discussions but the media shouldn't mention it. There are to people who blindly listen to them.

BTW, Roland was the only one who said Jeanne was no threat to FL and that she would stay going NNE.

[Josephine96]

I like the 5 day forecast,, It gives us extra days to prepare and more time to be alert of the storm possibly arriving..

[hookemfins]

Prepare? When a storm is 5 days out there is not much to other than watch and beaware of the storm.

Most of the FL peninsula was under the 5 day cone. The best solution is know that there is a storm out there. Monitor the situation and react if it threatens. When most people see a cone over them, they tend to overreact. The average person doesn't need to know.

That's why I suggested that the NHC leave the 5 day forecast on their site but TV stations only show the 3 day track and cone. The TV stations love to stir it up as it is. When there's a minor disturbance or depression way way out there they open the news with the "ominious" music followed by a graphic with "Trouble in the Tropics".

[Scorpion]

I think definitely to keep the 5 day cone. But take out the track, because it will always change.