The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or 
Let's start with this past Summer (June-August) and the record-breaking rainfall of 18.89 inches. Add in that this was ONLY the 3rd time in history (104yrs) that there was no OFFICAL 100 degree-day recorded (1906, 1973) being the other two years. We had no less that 5 cold fronts push through N-TX breaking several all time lows for those months even as far South as Houston and Corpus Christi. So what does this all mean as far as our Fall/Winter goes??
Most winter precipitation accures during the Jan-Feb period for N-TX and with what I think will be a active Southern Storm track this season I wont be surprised to see several chances at Snow and Ice this winter. Since I made my first posting for the winter season several other winter forecast have been released, most call for a colder and wetter then avg winter for the NE and SE and warmer and dryer than avg for the SW, W, and NW including Alaska. I don't totaly agree with that, I think that the Mid-West, Great Lakes States, Southern Plains, and the Deep South is where the winter storms will happen, I know the NE will get it's share of winter weather but I don't see the extreme cold weather of 02-03, that will be for the Centeral part of the U.S this winter.
November 10, 2004
Warm-episode conditions are expected to continue into early 2005.
Positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies greater than +0.5°C (~1°F) persisted across most of the equatorial Pacific during October 2004 (Fig. 1). By early November, positive equatorial SST anomalies greater than +1°C (~2°F) were found from 160°E eastward to 150°W and locally in the area around 120°W (Fig. 2). The increase and eastward expansion of the area of anomalous warmth in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific during July-October (Fig. 3) indicates the early stages of a warm ( El Niño) episode.
Since late 2003 MJO activity has resulted in week-to-week and month-to-month variability in many atmospheric and oceanic indices. In the past few months the warmth in the central equatorial Pacific has supported eastward shifts of enhanced convection associated with the convectively active phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) across the western equatorial Pacific. This activity has been associated with periods of weaker-than-average easterlies that initiated eastward-propagating oceanic Kelvin waves. This intraseasonal variability has been superposed on 1) an upward trend in SST anomalies east of the date line (Fig. 3) and 2) a gradual increase in the upper-ocean heat content during the last year (Fig. 4). Based on the recent evolution of oceanic and atmospheric conditions and on a majority of the statistical and coupled model forecasts, it seems most likely that warm episode (El Niño) conditions will persist through early 2005.
Looking at the yearly analogs that come the closest to this years coming winter are:
1963-64
1965-66
1969-70
1979-80
1987-88
1991-92
The record snowcover across Canada and Siberia continues to increase at a very fast rate. It is more extensive and deeper then it was at this time in both 2002 and 2003, and Alaska has seen it's share of early snow's as well. As of 11/10/04 the snow pack has started to move east and now covers a good part of Eastern Canada.
First Freeze between Nov. 7 - Nov. 15 (avg 1st freeze 17th of Nov)
November - A cool start with avg temps and avg precipitation (1-10) then a cooler period with below avg temps (11-15) Look for normal temps and above avg. precipitation for the (16-20) period, then a much colder end to the month (21-30) with below avg temps and above avg precipitation. Thanksgiving looks to be cold and windy with a chance of precipitation. (Normal High/Low - 65/40)
December - Looks to be cooler than avg with below normal temp for much of the month, and with avg to above avg precipitation. I think the middle of the month will be the coldest (13-21). Christmas looks to be Cold and Dry. (Normal High/Low - 57/37)
January - Starts off COLD with below avg temps (1-7) then a slight warm up but still quite cool, by mid Jan look for a Major Cold spell (15-22) with much below avg temps and above avg precipitation (ICE Storm)?? Then avg to below avg temps for the rest of the month. (Normal High/Low - 54/34)
February - Cold with avg to below avg temps and avg precipitation for the first half (1-15) then a brief warm up only to be replaced with another artic blast late in the month, could be a major SNOW event for N-Texas with below avg temps and above avg precipitation (20-28). (Normal High/Low - 59/38)
Well there you have in a "NUT" shell, only time and Old Man Winter can tell what’s going to happen, but that’s my Story and I'm sticking to it!
Happy Autumn to everyone out there!!
Peace!!
Edited to add Normal high/low for each month and to update (ENSO) info as of 11-10-04.
