Bonnie, Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne..
Florida took a pounding this year from the tropics and there is still 60 plus days remaining.
My big question is.. Is this the beginning of a trend where we no longer have our graces saved by a cold front every time a storm gets too close..?
Or were we just lucky this year. {if you wanna call it that} What do you guys think..?
After 5 storms in Florida this year what next..?
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weatherwindow
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although climo has almost no predictive value, it does have some bearing on this question....in a very broad sense, there has been a multi-year clustering of landfalls. two of these peaks have had relevance for fla..the decades of the 20's and the 40's...for reasons unknown, perhaps absolutely random, fla experienced 6 and 9 major landfalling hurricanes respectively....hopefully, we will not be returning to such a repetitive pattern again...who knows
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I BELIEVE THAT EVERY STORM HAS IT'S OWN SYNOPTIC SET UP AND THINGS TRULY HAVE TO BE JUST RIGHT TO HAVE A STORM HIT YOUR AREA.
FOR EXAMPLE IT HAS STILL BEEN SINCE 1921 TAHT TAMPA HAS NOT HAD A LANDFALLING HURRICANE HIT THE AREA, WE HAVE HAD EXITING STORMS BUT NONE ENTERING FROM THE GULF-EVENTUALLY TIME WILL RUN OUT AND IT WILL HAPPEN DUE TO TAMPA'S PROXIMITY.
OF COURSE THIS YEAR WE HAVE HAD BIG HIGH PRESSURES STEERING EVERY STORM OUR WAY, MAY BE COLD FRONTS WILL PUSH A GULF STORM THIS YEAR TOWARDS TAMPA WHO KNOWS
FOR EXAMPLE IT HAS STILL BEEN SINCE 1921 TAHT TAMPA HAS NOT HAD A LANDFALLING HURRICANE HIT THE AREA, WE HAVE HAD EXITING STORMS BUT NONE ENTERING FROM THE GULF-EVENTUALLY TIME WILL RUN OUT AND IT WILL HAPPEN DUE TO TAMPA'S PROXIMITY.
OF COURSE THIS YEAR WE HAVE HAD BIG HIGH PRESSURES STEERING EVERY STORM OUR WAY, MAY BE COLD FRONTS WILL PUSH A GULF STORM THIS YEAR TOWARDS TAMPA WHO KNOWS
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Scorpion
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Rainband
Re: After 5 storms in Florida this year what next..?
I think when it comes to GOM storms, the cold fronts are what bring them into the state in october and november. That being said we may be safe for the rest of the year. After this year though...anything is possible.Josephine96 wrote:Bonnie, Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne..
Florida took a pounding this year from the tropics and there is still 60 plus days remaining.
My big question is.. Is this the beginning of a trend where we no longer have our graces saved by a cold front every time a storm gets too close..?
Or were we just lucky this year. {if you wanna call it that} What do you guys think..?
Last edited by Rainband on Wed Sep 29, 2004 7:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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feederband
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Anonymous
bucman1 wrote:I BELIEVE THAT EVERY STORM HAS IT'S OWN SYNOPTIC SET UP AND THINGS TRULY HAVE TO BE JUST RIGHT TO HAVE A STORM HIT YOUR AREA.
FOR EXAMPLE IT HAS STILL BEEN SINCE 1921 TAHT TAMPA HAS NOT HAD A LANDFALLING HURRICANE HIT THE AREA, WE HAVE HAD EXITING STORMS BUT NONE ENTERING FROM THE GULF-EVENTUALLY TIME WILL RUN OUT AND IT WILL HAPPEN DUE TO TAMPA'S PROXIMITY.
OF COURSE THIS YEAR WE HAVE HAD BIG HIGH PRESSURES STEERING EVERY STORM OUR WAY, MAY BE COLD FRONTS WILL PUSH A GULF STORM THIS YEAR TOWARDS TAMPA WHO KNOWS
I agree--this came up early this year and it was just a bit of luck for Florida that these storms hit---Fla could not see another landfall for another 10 years or could see 2 more this year and a repeat next year---there is no way of knowing. Every day has a different pattern and 24 hours could make the difference whether a storm arrives in Fla or goes to the Carolinas or harmlessly out to sea.... The storm have just been in the right place at the right time for Fla this year.
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On the other hand-I just rememberred, back in 2000, I remember several saying on several boards that the Bermuda High was shifting westward gradually each year and Soon would be sending storms into Fla.... this was after a couple of Close calls for Fla in 1999 with Dennis, Floyd, and Irene.... after the 2000-2003 season, I discounted this Idea as Fla didnt see any storms during these years and they didnt seem to be getting any closer. Did the Bermuda high have anything to do with this seasons storms in Fla? If so, then Fla could be under the gun---Ehhh Idunno
Last edited by Anonymous on Wed Sep 29, 2004 10:01 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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I think the conditions that *could* send a storm into Florida are ALWAYS present, at some time during the hurricane season. I'm sure there are general tendencies and patterns, but I believe that during any given season, there could be a hurricane out there just waiting to head west under a strong Bermuda High.
Let's face it, a high pressure system sitting off the East Coast is not exactly a rare happening. I'd wager that setup happens many times during any hurricane season. You just need the storm itself out there at the right time to take advantage of it.
Let's face it, a high pressure system sitting off the East Coast is not exactly a rare happening. I'd wager that setup happens many times during any hurricane season. You just need the storm itself out there at the right time to take advantage of it.
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Josephine96
