GOM ?

jes · #1 Postby **jes** » Wed Sep 29, 2004 8:59 am

Now remember I don't know what I'm looking at, but I looked at the GOM infrared loop and there are very bright storms in the South Gulf. They looked like they were coming from the pacific so I looked at the Eastern Pacific infrared loop and you can see the the Gulf storms appear to be part of a very large group of storms that stretch down to the Caribbean. Mike was talking about development in the Caribbean - is it from this same group of storms? Does it look like there could also be development in the Gulf ?

#2 Postby **mascpa** » Wed Sep 29, 2004 9:20 am

Some of the models show something developing in that general area in three or fouor days. Who knows if anything will actually develop or not. But this time of year, that is the area you watch for development.

Josephine96 · #3 Postby **Josephine96** » Wed Sep 29, 2004 9:22 am

If it does develop.. then us storm weary people have more action to deal with..

GalvestonDuck · #4 Postby **GalvestonDuck** » Wed Sep 29, 2004 9:25 am

You never know, we might just get one of those elusive numbered TD's for once. :wink:

After all, we've only had two so far. It'd be nice to talk about a storm without a name.

LaBreeze · #5 Postby **LaBreeze** » Wed Sep 29, 2004 2:34 pm

Who knows, it may not even affect Florida. :sun:

Wnghs2007 · #6 Postby **Wnghs2007** » Wed Sep 29, 2004 2:43 pm

Heck there may not be anything develop

#7 Postby **WeatherNole** » Wed Sep 29, 2004 2:48 pm

In my opinion, if something is going to develop in the BOC, next week might be as good a time as any. There's a nice front coming down, with the tail end parking over the BOC early next week.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_bw.gif

Not a bad setup with lower pressure and warm SST's.

250 mb winds will be racing across the northern gulf coast, but light in the BOC, so shear shouldn't be an issue - at least not yet.

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/loop.avn250s.html

500mb ridge builds right over the BOC this weekend too, but then appears to weaken by next week.

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/loop.avn500s.html

More than likely - nothing will happen, but I'd give it a small chance.

Mike

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Sanibel · #8 Postby **Sanibel** » Wed Sep 29, 2004 2:48 pm

Worth watching since storms tend to develop off the low end of a trough in this area. A little dry, but bears watching. It could be receiving favor by the Caribbean action being so unfavorable right now. See if it deepens. The out-clouds hint curvature...

#9 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Wed Sep 29, 2004 3:02 pm

I just dont hope that we have an October like we did in 1999 when Irene flooded South Florida. That was a pain.

<RICKY>

GOM ?

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